Hello! I hope you had a great week. The Doomsday Clock — a symbol representing the likelihood of a human-made global catastrophe — maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has been at the “100 seconds to midnight” position since 2020. That’s the closest it has been to “midnight,” which refers to a human-made global catastrophe. The clock’s position was last updated before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So, it’s highly likely, in my view, that it would be moved significantly closer to “midnight” if it were to be updated today, considering what’s happening between in eastern Europe. Scaremongering is bad. Yet, we can’t help but feel concerned by how we’ve come to talk so casually about the use of nuclear weapons. More on that in this edition where we discuss Russia’s illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions and what is really means.
We’re also looking at the Nord Stream “sabotage”, Italy’s new far-right leader and formal power shift in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Let’s get started.
This day that year
2009: Earthquake with a moment magnitude of 7.6 struck Indonesia’s Sumatra leading to 1,115 deaths.
1520: Suleiman I — commonly known as Suleiman the Magnificent — was proclaimed sultan of the Ottoman Empire. He was the longest-reigning Ottoman emperor.
Russia to annex four Ukrainian regions
The Russian Federation is set to forcibly annex four regions of eastern Ukraine. To this end, President Vladimir Putin will sign a decree on September 30. This annexation will be carried out based on illegal referendums held in those four regions: Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic (controlled by Russia-backed separatists since 2014), and the Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast (which have been under Russian control since February following the invasion).
Administrations installed by Moscow in these four regions announced that 93 percent of the voters in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region supported joining Russia. The number was 87 percent in the Kherson region, 98 percent in the Luhansk region and 99 percent in Donetsk. However, these referendums are unrecognised internationally and have been widely characterised as a sham. With Russian or Russia-backed armed personnel reportedly going door to door to collect the ballots, the widely-held belief is that voters were coerced into voting in favour of the Russian annexation.
The UK’s Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, said his government had evidence that Russian officials had set targets for “invented voter turnouts and approval rates”. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said the referendums violate international law and the UN Charter. Even China and India, who had abstained from condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, said that sovereignty and integrity of all countries must be respected.
These illegal referendums were carried out to provide a formal justification for Russia to annex these regions. This is similar to what Moscow did in Crimea in 2014. The Kremlin’s aim here is to categorise these expansive regions — internationally recognised as a part of Ukraine — as its own. Consequently, Ukrainian attacks inside these areas to reclaim these regions would be considered by Moscow as an attack on Russia’s sovereignty. This would have consequences. Putin had warned earlier this month that his military wouldn’t hesitate to use nuclear weapons — or at least smaller ‘tactical nuclear weapons’ — to defend Russian territory.
“As a citizen of Russia and the head of the Russian state I must ask myself: Why would we want a world without Russia?”
But, as hinted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the annexations are unlikely to deter Ukrainian counter-attacks. In August, Zelenskyy had warned that Russia “will close for themselves any chance of talks with Ukraine and the free world, which the Russian side will clearly need at some point” if Moscow takes the annexation route.
Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory makes it even more difficult for both sides to negotiate an end to the fighting.
More: The Associated Press’ explainer on how real are Putin’s nuclear threats in Ukraine. And, watch Bloomberg columnist Andreas Kluth discuss what options US President Joe Biden (as the de facto leader of NATO) would have if Putin goes nuclear.
Nord Stream leaks
In what sounds like the plot of the next season of the ‘Occupied’ series, Russia and European nations are now seemingly engaged in grey-zone warfare.
Grey-zone actions are those between conventional fighting and peace. These actions taken generally by non-military methods are aimed at changing the status quo using coercive actions. These actions are below the threshold of something that would trigger a conventional military response. Switching off water or energy supply, cyberwarfare and limiting sharing of crucial data — all of which could negatively affect the other nation — can be examples of grey-zone tactics.
Some European nations and the US are describing that “apparent sabotage” is behind multiple leaks in the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines connecting Russia and Europe. While they haven’t named a potential perpetrator, they’re clearly hinting at Russian involvement. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said sabotage can’t be ruled out as “there are three leaks and therefore it is difficult to imagine that it could be accidental.” But, so far, there hasn’t been any evidence of it being a sabotage. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it’s “stupid” to accuse Russia of sabotaging the pipelines. Some pro-government outlets in Russia are claiming that it was an American sabotage. Footage shared by the Danish military shows gas bubbles at the surface of areas in the Baltic Sea between Denmark and Sweden (in international waters). Nord Stream pipelines are not currently operational (line 2 had never started commercial operations) but reportedly still contain natural gas.
There has been no impact on energy supply into Europe. Both Nord Streams were not operational. So, there has been no impact on energy supply into Europe — and especially in Germany which has been highly dependent on Russian supply until recently. European nations have managed to secure alternative energy sources since the Russian invasion of Ukraine so as to reduce their dependence on Moscow (on September 27, a new pipeline bringing Norwegian gas to Poland was inaugurated). However, there’s speculation that by sabotaging the pipelines, Moscow is trying to create chaos in the European energy market. European gas prices are over 200 percent higher than a year ago.
According to Eurasia Group’s analysts Henning Gloystein and Jason Bush, a major damage to the pipelines means that they won’t be able to carry any gas from Russia into Europe over the coming months — even if European nations are willing to buy it from Moscow amid what is widely expected to be a hard winter due to gas shortage and high prices. “Depending on the scale of the damage, the leaks could even mean a permanent closure of both lines,” Gloystein and Bush told CNBC.
There are also concerns that the release of the pipeline’s content — largely methane, which is a greenhouse gas (second biggest cause of climate change after carbon dioxide) — would impact the environment. The environmental impact of the gas leak is currently difficult to quantify.
What else?
Italy’s new far-right leader
Giorgia Meloni, the leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, is likely to become Italy’s next prime minister following the centre-right coalition’s victory in the recent general election. Meloni is expected to take over as the PM sometime in October with government formation taking weeks.
Meloni will be the first female PM of Italy and the first far-right head of government of a major Eurozone country. In fact, she would lead what is being described as Italy’s most right-wing government since the end of the Second World War. The 45-year-old’s coalition includes former deputy PM Matteo Salvini’s Lega and former PM Silvio Berlusconi Forza Italia — both right-wing parties.
Many, especially in Europe, are concerned about how Meloni’s party found resonance among people of a country that once experienced fascism of dictator Benito Mussolini. Like some of her allies, Meloni had herself once expressed favourable views of Mussolini’s actions. However, she has since condemned suppression of democracy and has seemingly climbed down from that stance.
Those outside Italy are also worried about what Meloni stands for and what impact it would have on European society. She opposes abortion, multiculturalism, non-European migrants finding asylum in Italy and laws that recognise same-sex marriage. She is accused of being xenophobic and Islamophobic, and backs presidentialism. Other far-right parties in Europe such as Spain’s Vox, Alternative for Germany and National Rally from France have been supportive to her. Even though Meloni is a Eurosceptic (someone who is critical of the European Union and integration of European nations), she said her government will be committed to the EU and NATO. While she has promised to support Ukraine against Russia, her coalition partners Berlusconi and Salvini are known to be supportive of Putin. Salvini said this month that the West should rethink sanctions against Russia. Any steps down this path by her government will negatively impact the EU’s cohesion while responding to the Russian threat. The rise of far-right parties in Europe, coupled with the election of right-wing governments in Sweden and now in Italy, has sent a strong nationalist message to Brussels. Yet, some observers suggest that Meloni’s victory is less to do with any surge in support for neo-fascism and more to do with Italian voters’ frustration with unstable governments, economic woes and the status quo.
Read more: Deutsche Welle’s Alexandra von Nahmen explains in the opinion piece why Italy’s shift to the right is dangerous for the EU. And, David Broder, the author of the book ‘Mussolini’s Grandchildren: Fascism In Contemporary Italy’, writes in The Guardian that Italy’s drift to the far-right began long before Meloni’s rise.
MBS becomes Saudi PM
In a departure from tradition, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz on September 27 appointed his son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (often shortened as “MBS”) as the kingdom’s prime minister. The PM-led Council of Ministers was also reshuffled, according to a royal decree the king issued. MBS’ brother Khalid bin Salman Al Saud was handed the important defence ministry.
The prime minister’s position has almost always been held by the reigning monarch (only exception was then crown prince Faisal serving as PM for his unpopular brother King Saud in 1950s-1960s). Therefore, MBS becoming PM while his father remains the king symbolises further formal accumulation of power in the hands of the crown prince. MBS has been considered the de facto ruler of the oil-rich kingdom since at least 2017 when he became the crown prince, but he’ll now rule de jure.
Watch: ‘The Saudi prince: how dangerous is MBS?’ by The Economist
Aged 37, MBS is already seen as the most powerful figure in the kingdom. He has undertaken a massive campaign to reform and modernise the Saudi economy and society as part of his vision to steer the country away from its dependence on income from oil exports. MBS is leading government investments in newer sectors, promoting projects like Neom smart city and is pushing reforms to allow women to drive, and has legalised live music and stand-up comedy. However, his critics claim that MBS has created an atmosphere of fear within the kingdom and clamped down further on dissent. They also point out how MBS was allegedly directly involved in the murder of Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi (the US’ Central Intelligence Agency backs this claim). Yet, with the world gripped by an energy crisis, the West has been forced to reconcile with MBS.
Watch out: Brazil heading to polls
Voters in Brazil will vote in the first round of general elections on October 2. This includes voting to elect a president. Opposition leader and former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or simply Lula, is leading the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, by 13 percentage points. If no candidate secures 50 percent votes, there’ll be a second round of polling at the end of October. The bigger question is if there’ll be a peaceful transition of power if Bolsonaro loses. For about a year now, Bolsonaro has been making unsubstantiated allegations of electoral fraud. There are concerns that such false allegations and fake news could be subsequently used to challenge the election result or to conduct a self-coup if Bolsonaro is facing defeat. Will Bolsonaro do a Trump?
Interesting stuff
“In 1980, [Augusto] Pinochet and his lawyers saddled Chile with a right-wing constitution. In 2022, the convention tried to saddle Chile with a left-wing constitution. Different people, different decade, same mistake.” Andrés Velasco, former Chilean finance minister and presidential candidate, explains in Foreign Affairs how President Gabriel Boric-backed constitutional assembly failed to understand what the people wanted from the new constitution (which was overwhelmingly rejected in a plebiscite this month). Read the piece here.
The BBC’s Rupert Wingfield-Hayes explains why this week’s state funeral for former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (who was assassinated in July), attended by several world leaders, was controversial domestically. Read the story here. On a related note, Jeff Smith, the Director of Asian Security Programs at the Heritage Foundation, writes for Observer Research Foundation (ORF) about Abe being the ‘QuadFather’ — explaining the role he played in establishing the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, meant to keep the Indo-Pacific region “free and open” amid China’s rise. Read the piece here.
Bloomberg’s Faris Mokhtar lays out options Indonesian President Joko Widodo has for retaining power after his final term ends in 2024. Read the story here.
This handy piece by Bloomberg’s Liza Tetley (published in August) explains why Scotland’s push to secede from the United Kingdom won’t go away. Read it here.
“India, the world’s largest democracy, is on the front lines of the battle between democracy and autocracy. If China is able to coerce India into submission, it will open the path for the world’s biggest autocracy to gain supremacy in Asia and reshape the international order in its favour.” In this piece written in Nikkei Asia in June — marking two years of the violent face-off between Chinese and Indian soldiers in the Galwan Valley — Brahma Chellaney argues why India’s front-line battle against autocracy is more important than ever. Read the opinion piece here.
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