Hello! Hope you’ve been having a productive week. In this edition, we’re looking at how the Arctic Ocean is emerging as a major geopolitical hotspot.
But we’re also looking at what’s in store for the United Kingdom’s new prime minister Liz Truss, the Kenyan supreme court clearing the way for Willian Ruto to become the country’s next president, former Sri Lankan leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s unexpected return to the island nation and why Russia is reportedly buying artillery from North Korea.
It’s worth mentioning that Queen Elizabeth II — the 96-year-old monarch of the United Kingdom and other Commonwealth realms — is under medical supervision at the Balmoral Castle, her office announced on September 8. This came after her medical team expressed concern about her health, though she was said to be “comfortable”. Her closest family members rushed to Balmoral. More information is awaited.
Let’s get started.
This day that year
1976: Mao Zedong, the communist revolutionary who ruled the People’s Republic of China with an iron fist as the undisputed “paramount leader” of the Chinese Communist Party starting 1949, died — leaving behind a power vacuum. Deng Xiaoping eventually emerged as the victor in the ensuing bloodless power struggle and radically reformed the country’s economy and government institutions.
1948: Kim Il-sung established the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea).
Arctic — the next faultline
With the focus shifting in recent years to the great power competition between the United States and China, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and more recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we’ve largely ignored the other major area of friction — the Arctic. For decades, especially since the end of the Cold War, the Arctic has seen relative calm. But that is quickly changing. Climate change is having a major impact on the planet and the Arctic Ocean is one of the areas where the effects of global warming are the most evident. The massive ice sheets around the North Pole are melting rapidly.
Navigating through the Arctic Ocean was very challenging for the most part of human history. But melting ice and warmer temperatures across more months of the year is making it easier for large ships to take the Arctic routes. We may be moving towards a situation where the Arctic won’t have ice beyond the winter months. This would make navigating through the area much easier during the remainder of the year. Moreover, resources there would now become more accessible. All countries bordering or having stakes in the Arctic want a piece of this pie, want to protect their commercial and security interests and maintain their vessel’s freedom of navigation. This is expected to create friction and massive geopolitical problems in the decades to come.
The real impact of what’s happening in the Arctic would possibly be felt after a couple of decades. But the geopolitical game has already begun with all stakeholders seeking the first mover’s advantage.
Russia sees a lot of opportunity in turning the Northern Sea Route — running through the Arctic — into some kind of a toll road by requiring ships to make payments and have icebreaker escorts while traversing the waters. But more military movements in the area is also likely to impact these countries’ threat perceptions – and increase the risks associated with miscalculations.
Watch — this video by NASA Goddard explains how older ice in the Arctic Sea is disappearing (listening recommended):
Last month, the United States established the position of an ambassador-at-large for the Arctic Region (subject to the advice and consent of the Senate) to advance American policy in the region, “engage with counterparts in Arctic and non-Arctic nations as well as indigenous groups” and other stakeholders. Around the same time, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg wrote in an opinion piece published in Canada’s The Globe and Mail that the military alliance must prioritise its military presence in the Arctic because it has “great strategic importance”.
Stoltenberg sought to remind that the “shortest path to North America for Russian missiles or bombers would be over the North Pole”.
“Increasing parts of the Arctic will be ice-free in summer. This is unlocking opportunities for shipping routes, natural resources and economic development. But it also raises the risk of tensions. Authoritarian regimes are clearly willing to use military intimidation or aggression to achieve their aims,” Stoltenberg added.
Stoltenberg’s remarks can be seen as a response to Russia revamping its Soviet-era military bases in the Arctic and deploying newer weapons including hypersonic missiles there in recent years — possibly to secure its coast and maintain maritime domain awareness there, or to pre-emptively militarise it. Russian President Vladimir Putin has pledged to protect the country’s Arctic waters “by all means”.
China has no part of its territory bordering the Arctic. But, as an emerging great power, Beijing has interests there. The Arctic shipping route connecting northeast Asia (especially the big ports of China) to Europe is significantly shorter than the currently popular route running through volatile points like the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, chokepoints like the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal. China doesn't want to be too dependent on the existing navigation lanes wherein its rivals would be able to impede its free movement in times of crisis. Therefore, the Arctic route is a better alternative. Therefore, China describes itself as a “near-Arctic state” and is planning a “Polar Silk Road” to link itself with Europe via the Arctic. To this end, it is strengthening its navy and has plans of building the world’s biggest icebreaker ship. It’s also investing heavily in infrastructure projects in the region. These Chinese initiatives must be seen in the context of deepening strategic partnership between China and Russia.
The Arctic Council, established in 1996, is meant to address such issues faced by countries and indigenous people of the Arctic. It comprises eight member nations having sovereignty over land masses within the Arctic Circle. Additionally, the council has a number of observer states.
However, once Finland and Sweden are inducted into NATO, seven out of the eight members of the Arctic Council would belong to that military alliance. Russia will be the only non-NATO member in it. In recent months, the council has been dysfunctional because Russia is currently holding the group’s rotating presidency and the West is boycotting Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. Even if hostilities in eastern Europe were to cease at some point, tensions within the Council are unlikely to ease as there are currently no signs of the Russia-West rift narrowing. Therefore, deeper cooperation and amicable solutions to problems in the Arctic are unlikely. The role China plays in Arctic cooperation would also become important.
What else?
Thatcher, Theresa and Truss
Queen Elizabeth II appointed Liz Truss as the prime minister of the United Kingdom earlier this week. This came after Truss was elected as the ruling Conservative Party’s leader.
Truss defeated former chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak by a margin of 20,927 votes (total 171,785 valid votes were cast by party members). In a departure from tradition, Truss’ appointment happened at the Balmoral Castle in Scotland instead of the Buckingham Palace, London where the monarch usually asks leaders to form the government in her name. With this, Truss, who has been accused of cosplaying former prime minister Margaret Thatcher, also became the UK’ third female PM. Thatcher and Theresa May were the previous two.
The 47-year-old served as the foreign secretary in the previous government led by Boris Johnson and unlike her party leadership race rival Rishi Sunak, had not quit the Cabinet. She had also served as the minister for women and equalities, and international trade. Interestingly, she began her political career as a Liberal Democrat, not as a Torie — as Conservative Party members are called. In fact, she protested Thatcher in the 1980s.
In the more recent past, Truss campaigned for the UK to “remain” in the European Union during the Brexit vote. But she later changed her mind after the public vote in favour of Brexit.
Read more: ‘Who is Liz Truss? From teenage Lib Dem to Tory PM’ by BBC’s Brian Wheeler and Sam Francis
As discussed last week, Truss has her task cut-out. The UK is going through a cost of living and energy crises, a new Scottish independence referendum seems to be gaining momentum, the Northern Ireland protocol issue needs to be sorted out — all while dealing with the impact of Brexit, continuing the post-pandemic economic recovery and with the ongoing war in eastern Europe. Truss will also have to unify the Conservatives in time for the next general election as the party is already facing anti-incumbency. Tories have already been in power for 12 years.
Truss has moved quickly to tackle some of these problems. On September 8, Truss announced that the typical household energy bill will be capped at £2,500 per year until October 2024. Next month, gas and electricity bills were due to be raised from an average £1,971 to £3,549.
Trivia: Truss is the 15th prime minister under Queen Elizabeth II’s reign.
Kenya’s next president
The Kenyan Supreme Court this week rejected Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s challenge to last month’s presidential election result, paving the way for Deputy President Willian Ruto to be confirmed as the president-elect. The top court unanimously refused to nullify the election result saying Odinga had not provided a watertight case. It also ruled that 55-year-old Ruto had secured more than 50 percent of the valid votes — as mandated by the Constitution.
Ruto would be sworn-in as the Kenyan president on September 13. This was 77-year-old Odinga’s fifth unsuccessful bid to become the president. He claims this was his last attempt. Outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta had endorsed Odinga during the election campaign despite years of political rivalry between them. Kenyatta was himself ineligible to run for office again because of the two-term limit imposed by the Constitution.
Gotabaya returns. Why?
Former Sri Lankan president Gotabaya Rajapaksa who had fled the country in July amid the country’s worst economic crisis, returned to capital Colombo this week. It was not immediately clear as to what prompted Rajapaksa to return.
Gotabaya had fled to neighbouring Maldives and given up the presidency after months of protests calling for the ouster of the Rajapaksa clan. Blaming the Rajapaksas for the economic crisis, protesters had taken over key government buildings, including the official residence of the president. He quickly moved to Singapore and finally to Thailand. But he wasn’t able to secure a long-term permission to stay in those Southeast Asian countries. Gotabaya’s brothers Mahinda and Basil remained in Sri Lanka all the while.
While activists have been calling for the former president to face trial, it seems unlikely that it would happen at least right now because the current government enjoys support of lawmakers from his party.
Russia buying artillery from North Korea: US intelligence
Russia is buying large quantities of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea to support its invasion of Ukraine, a newly declassified US intelligence finding suggests. The intelligence report, first reported by The New York Times, also raises the possibility of additional procurements in the future.
This signals that the Russian military is facing a major shortage of these weapons in its fight in Ukraine. This shortage may be because the Russians have been unable to replenish its weapons stock at the required pace, and potentially because import-export controls and sanctions are making the task difficult.
North Korea selling weapons to Russia would violate UN resolutions barring Pyongyang from exporting or importing weapons. The North was one of the only five states who voted against a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in early-March. The Russian military had taken delivery of Iranian-manufactured drones last month and is working domestically to induct more service personnel.
Interesting stuff
“Behind the scenes, [Chinese President Xi Jinping’s] power is being questioned as never before. By discarding China’s long tradition of collective rule and creating a cult of personality reminiscent of the one that surrounded Mao, Xi has rankled party insiders.” Cai Xia, a former professor at the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Central Party School, writes in Foreign Affairs about how hubris and paranoia are threatening the future of the world's most populous nation. Read the long piece here.
“A family holiday to a modest island destination would cost someone earning double the minimum wage a full month’s salary. And that’s before accounting for food, drinks, and restaurant costs.” Ayman Oghanna writes in Foreign Policy about how ordinary Greeks themselves aren’t able to afford a summer holiday as foreigners tourists are flooding the country. Read the full story here.
“There is little sign that the sanctions have pressured the oligarchs into starting a ‘palace coup’ against [Russian President] Putin. Instead, they have had a very different impact. Increasingly angry at western governments, Russia’s oligarchs are scrambling for ways to cling on to what remains of their wealth.” Max Seddon and Polina Ivanova write in the Financial Times about Russian oligarchs feeling “bitter about sanctions that have left them ostracised in the West and impotent at home”. Read the story here.
Watch — this video by Vox explains why Egypt is moving its capital from Cairo to New Cairo:
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