Merhaba! I hope you have a fantastic weekend ahead. This week, we are looking at the precarious position United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson finds himself in after a major scandal and his political party’s by-election loss in what is considered to be an ultra-safe parliamentary seat.
But we’re also looking at the possibility of the Korean War (but not hostilities) formally ending, the Israeli prime minister making a historic visit to the United Arab Emirates and Turkey (the country, not the bird) changing its name.
This day that year
2014: Cuba and the United States announced the beginning of a process to normalise their diplomatic relations after more than 50 years of hostilities.
2011: North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died. He was succeeded by his son Kim Jong-un.
Party’s over?
I’m not in the business of forecasting political developments. But it’s safe to conclude that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been put on notice by the electorate and members of his own Conservative Party.
The Conservatives, also called the Tories, lost the North Shropshire parliamentary seat in a by-election to the Liberal Democrats on December 16. The party had held the seat for nearly 200 years. What has a by-poll result anything to do with who leads the country? The election was seen as a referendum on Johnson’s national leadership. The Liberal Democrats ran the election campaign saying that the “party is over” for the prime minister — alluding to an alleged Christmas party held by Johnson’s staffers at his official residence in December 2020. What’s key here is that the party was held at a time when the nation was put under a strict lockdown and people had been told to cancel Christmas celebrations and not meet their close ones. The party reportedly took place days after London imposed Tier 3 lockdown restrictions. So far, 10 Downing Street — the prime minister’s residence and office — has not explained how the party complied with COVID-19 protocols.
While Johnson has faced multiple scandals during his time as the prime minister, this Christmas party scandal is seriously threatening his grip on power. An inquiry into the matter is underway and is expected to find out who attended and what happened at the party last year. The opposition, led by Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer, has said that the prime minister is “unfit for office”.
Johnson’s approval ratings have plummeted in recent weeks because of this and some other scandals. This has led to many Conservative party leaders warning Johnson of his ouster if he’s unable to salvage the situation.
Days before the North Shropshire by-election, 99 Members of Parliament belonging to Johnson’s own party had voted against his government as he tried to push through introduction of COVID-19 passes in England. This is said to be the biggest revolt Johnson has faced from within the party since he took power in 2019. Senior Conservative Member of Parliament Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown told Sky News that the “Prime minister has really got to think very carefully about how he's going to reset his performance to actually govern with a united party, because we all know what happens to disunited parties”.
“He's got to now be in some danger and he's got to realise that, because if he doesn't realise that, then he will be in much bigger danger,” Clifton-Brown said.
Johnson’s challenges are only increasing. The UK is witnessing a record surge in daily COVID-19 cases. Johnson’s government is introducing new measures to curb the spread of novel coronavirus infections. But even as he argues that no real lockdown is being imposed, critics say Johnson has brought in restrictions that amount to a “lockdown by stealth”.
Gone are the times when prime ministers in the UK – across party lines – enjoyed longish terms. Margaret Thatcher was the prime minister for 11 years, John Major for seven, Tony Blair for 10 and David Cameron for six. Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May was around for the premier for just over four years. Johnson has been at 10 Downing Street for about two and a half years. What happens next? Will the Tories pick someone to replace Johnson? If yes, will the next person seek his or her own mandate and drag the UK into its fourth general election in six/seven years?
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This satellite image shows a capital city situated on an island divided into two parts. The northern and the southern parts are administered by separate ethnic communities — one backed by Turkey and the other by Greece. The buffer between them, running through the city, is guarded by the United Nations. The UK maintains military bases on the island that is often called an “unsinkable aircraft carrier”. What city is this?
The correct answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Is the Korean War ending?
North and South Korea, China and the US have agreed in principle to declare a formal end to the Korean War, according to South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
The 1950 Korean War never ended even though the fighting stopped in 1953 upon the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement. The agreement called for temporary stopping of open acts of warfare, and isn’t a peace treaty as is usually the case when wars conclude. Technically, North and South Korea remain in a state of war with each other even today.
President Moon, whose presidential tenure will conclude next year, is pushing for a formal end to the war. But it’s not as easy as it seems. The United Nations (via the US deployment in South Korea) and China are parties to the agreement and their blessings would be required to go ahead with such a move.
The negotiations in this regard haven’t started yet because of North Korea's demands. In September, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s influential sister Kim Yo-jong said her country would only be willing to discuss the proposal if Seoul stopped what she called “hostile policies” towards them. “Only when such a precondition is met, would it be possible to sit face to face and declare the significant termination of war.”
Even if the war was to be formally declared over, tensions on the Korean peninsula are unlikely to vanish. Kim Jong-un’s regime in the North obviously remains interested in its safety and state survival. If Pyongyang continues to possess destructive weapons as an insurance, Seoul and Washington DC will also maintain their current posture.
Bennett’s historic visit to UAE
Late on December 12, as the world debated who was the deserving winner of the 2021 Formula 1 season in Abu Dhabi, something more significant was happening in another part of UAE’s capital. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett became the first Israeli leader to visit the UAE and met Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed — the de facto Emirati ruler — the following day.
This came a year after Israel and the UAE normalised diplomatic ties. Until the Abraham Accords were signed last year, the UAE did not fully recognise Israel. An Israeli premier publicly meeting the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. For a very long time, Egypt and Jordan were the only states in the region to have formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Other Arab states had tried to delay a thaw with Tel Aviv until some form of a Palestinian state was established. That stand hasn’t lasted. The new partnership is underpinned not only by trade and economic considerations, but also the common concerns of potential threat from a nuclear-armed Iran.
Further reading: Israeli leader travels to UAE, showcasing deepening ties
What’s in a name?
Turkey’s government has formally tweaked the country’s name — or at least the way it’s spelt and pronounced — to “Turkiye”. This is part of a larger exercise to rebrand the country’s identity in the international system. The name change, some may argue, makes sense: you don’t want to confuse the nation with a “stupid or inept person” (according to the dictionary) or even a bird.
This development is indeed underreported (just like France changing the colour of its flag). It was earlier this month that a communique in this regard was issued by Turkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The rationale behind this move is that “Turkiye” represents Turkish culture, language and values better than the name “Turkey” which is seen as being Western. The country was always called Turkiye when spoken in Turkish. So, the name change doesn’t seem radical.
In recent years, Macedonia changed its official name to North Macedonia and Swaziland became Eswatini.
Interesting stuff
Here’s a great example of how music changes the world for the better. In the days after American hip hop artist Logic performed his “1-800-273-8255” song at the MTV Video Music Awards in 2017, calls made to the number — which is the US National Suicide Prevention Lifeline — jumped by 50 percent, the organisation had said earlier.
Now, a new study published in BMJ (a peer-reviewed medical journal by the British Medical Association), suggests that the 34-day time period encompassing the song’s release, Logic’s VMA show performance and the 2018 Grammy Awards can be linked to a 5.5 percent fall in suicide rates in the 10-19 age group. The study can be read here.
If you are having suicidal thoughts, or are concerned that someone who you know may be, the following organisations can help: in India, call 24x7 toll-free mental health rehabilitation helpline ‘Kiran’ at 1800-599-0019. In the UK, the National Suicide Prevention Helpline can be reached at 0800-689-5652. In the US, the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline can be reached at 1-800-273-8255. More details can be found here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Nicosia. Internationally, it’s recognised as the capital of Cyprus. But Northern Cyprus also considers the northern areas of Nicosia as its capital — a claim backed only by Turkey. Northern Cyprus is administered by Turkish Cypriots (supported by Turkey). The rest of the island — except for areas held by the UN and the UK — are administered by Greek Cypriots (supported by Greece). While Northern Cyprus enjoys limited recognition, Cyprus is a member of the European Union. Because the UN buffer zone runs through the city, Nicosia is considered the last divided capital in Europe. Yes, it’s complicated. I’m linking an explainer video by The Guardian here.
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