Elections, status quo and Quad
Plus, Quad leaders say they’ll push for adherence to international law to meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order, ‘including in the East and South China Seas’
Hello! Hope you’re having a wonderful weekend. Apologies for not having sent out this week’s newsletter yesterday. The 76th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) is underway in New York City and United States President Joe Biden hosted Quad leaders for their first in-person summit on September 24. I thought it would be better to hold on for a day to see if something comes out of these developments.
In this week’s edition, we are looking at three elections. One led to a status quo, another’s result is being questioned and the third is likely to stir up a country’s political sphere. We are discussing cold Canada, colder Russia and Europe’s largest economy, Germany.
This day that year
1777: British forces occupied the then American capital Philadelphia, during the American Revolution.
1237: Kings Henry III of England and Alexander II of Scotland signed the Treaty of York establishing a boundary between the two countries. Some call it the most unchanged demarcation in modern times.
Trudeau’s narrow escape
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau managed to win a third consecutive tenure as the country’s premier in the parliamentary election held this week. But he failed to accomplish his main objective for calling the snap polls (about two years ahead of schedule): to form a majority government.
The Liberal party, led by 49-year-old Trudeau, won 158 of the total 338 seats in the Lower House of Parliament – falling short of the 170 required for a majority. The result seems identical to the 2019 general election result, which left Trudeau’s government incapacitated to deal with major issues. That’s what he was hoping to get past.
Trudeau had gone to the public seeking for a stronger mandate and a majority to be able to govern more effectively. But as the campaign progressed, some voters wondered if a general election was necessary at this stage of the pandemic.
During the month-long campaign, rival Conservative party leader Erin O'Toole pitched himself to voters as milder and more centrist as compared to his predecessors from the party. That seemed to be working. In the weeks leading up to September 20, the voting day, the Conservative party’s popularity surged dramatically. At one point, the Conservatives had surpassed the Liberal party in opinion surveys recording respondents’ voting intentions. They also managed to get a higher vote share as compared to the Liberals, just like the previous polls. But did not secure enough seats according to the Westminster system.
Liberals are set to form a minority government with the support of some smaller parties. The Conservative party will continue to sit in the Opposition. But with a mere status quo being maintained after a hard-fought election, some Canadians may have been left thinking if the country is now arguably more divided than when the snap election was called. And did it yield anything at all?
The Russian election
The United Russia party, which backs Russian President Vladimir Putin, secured a landslide majority in the federal election held last weekend. The party won 324 of the 450 seats in Duma’s (Parliament) lower house. The number is significant as it’s a supermajority – allowing the party and Putin to change the country’s Constitution more easily.
But opposition parties have alleged rigging and electoral fraud. Videos were posted on social media which purportedly showed ballot stuffing. There was also an alleged delay in publishing of online voting results in capital Moscow, which effectively changed the leads secured by opposition candidates during offline voting. Some independent election observers were barred from doing their job.
An application created by Kremlin opponent and jailed political leader Alexei Navalny’s supporters to promote tactical voting had been removed by Apple and Google from their app store – as demanded by the Russian government. Moscow considers Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation as an “extremist” group.
More about that can be read here: Navalny app disappearance shows Russia's strength in the battle against Big Tech
The Moscow Times cited independent data scientists and analysts as claiming that half of all votes attributed to the winning party in the official results were probably fake.
In recent years, Russian federal, local as well as presidential polls have been criticised for being unfair, lacking transparency and over alleged intimidation of opposition candidates.
But as seen in opinion surveys, United Russia did see a drop in seats it won. The biggest beneficiary was the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (CPRF).
Awaited: Merkel’s successor
In October 2018, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she won’t seek re-election in the next federal polls in 2021, she was probably hoping to sit back and watch her CDU/CSU party smoothly retain power as she leaves after 16 years in power.
All 598 seats in the Bundestag (Parliament) are up for grabs in the September 26 federal election and 300 seats are required for a majority. Leader of the party or alliance having the requisite number of seats becomes the chancellor – equivalent to a prime minister.
But things haven’t panned out the way she would have wanted. Days before Germans cast ballots in an election of massive significance for the country, the European Union (EU) and the world, Merkel seems to have been forced to campaign for her party.
She has hit the campaign trail pitching her party’s candidate Armin Laschet as the perfect fit for the top job.
Over the last six months the governing CDU/CSU’s approval rating has plummeted, if opinion surveys are to be believed. The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) has seen a boost in its popularity.
Here’s what you should know: The CDU/CSU and SPD are allies in the outgoing Bundestag (just like multiple times in the past). But are contesting this election against each other. The Left and the Greens, that SPD had allied with, have been in the opposition. Thus, some have raised a possibility of the CDU/CSU and SPD coming together post-poll with SPD taking over the coalition’s leadership if they fall short of the majority mark.
Why it’s significant: A generation of Germans, especially first-time voters, has grown up not knowing anyone other than Merkel as the country’s top executive. They might be looking for a change. Among others, there might be voters who are miffed by some of her policies.
Earlier this month, I had plugged a piece by Financial Times’ Guy Chazan. It explores what young Germans think of her legacy.
Yet, there might be some who think Laschet is not an appropriate successor. No matter what the voters feel, the SPD-led alliance forming a government will affect the country, the dynamics of the EU and the country’s partnership with other nations.
Generally, all major parties in Germany hold favourable views towards the EU, except the German nationalist and right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. But there are some differences.
The SPD and its allies are in favour of a European minimum wage as well as unemployment insurance – policy issues that Merkel's party is against. German Institute for International and Security Affairs’ Dominik Rehbaum, Julina Mintel and Minna Ålander have written in detail about parties' views on various issues.
There are some differences between allies too. Both CDU/CSU and SPD back the idea of a creating European armed forces. Both have also affirmed their commitment to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). But SPD’s ally Linke (the Left) has proposed NATO’s dissolution and has rejected proposals for a European army.
Germans will head for polling on September 26 and no party is expected to get a majority. There are many post-poll alliance combinations that could come into play, as reported by Reuters. But no matter who leads Germany, it won’t be Merkel.
What else?
Biden hosts Quad leaders
US President Biden hosted leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, at the White House on September 24. This was the first in-person summit of the four leaders from Australia, India, Japan and the US.
The group has never formally recognised that it was formed to counter growing Chinese influence. But experts say that’s what it is really about. The four democracies are seeking mutual cooperation and exertion of ‘soft power’ to keep China’s influence at bay.
Key points from the joint statement:
The four countries agreed to advance deployment of secure, open and transparent 5G and beyond-5G networks.
They agreed upon cooperation in cyber space and pledged to work together to combat cyber threats, promote resilience and to secure critical infrastructure.
The Quad nations will identify new collaboration opportunities and share satellite data for peaceful purposes such as monitoring climate change, disaster response and preparedness, sustainable uses of oceans and marine resources. “We will also consult on rules, norms, guidelines and principles for ensuring the sustainable use of outer space.”
The nations will “closely coordinate” diplomatic, economic and human-rights policies towards Afghanistan and deepen counter-terrorism and humanitarian cooperation in the coming months ahead in accordance with the August 30 UN Security Council resolution (2593) on the Afghan situation.
In the joint statement, the country said they stand in support of Afghan nationals, and call on the Taliban to provide safe passage to those wanting to leave the country, and to “ensure that the human rights of all Afghans, including women, children and minorities are respected.”
Not naming China directly, the Quad grouping said it will continue to seek adherence to international law to meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order, including in the East and South China Seas. “Our commitment to realise a free and open Indo-Pacific is firm, and our vision for this partnership remains ambitious and far-reaching.”
AUKUS fallout
Last week, Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom announced the ‘AUKUS’ trilateral security pact. Under the agreement, the US will help Australia build nuclear-powered submarines.
This upset France, which lost out on a lucrative submarine deal it had already signed with Australia.
But France has been fuming also because it was kept out of a major pact. The Indo-Pacific region is important to France, both strategically and economically. About 1.6 million French citizens live on the islands of French Polynesia, La Réunion, New Caledonia and Mayotte.
Sending out a strong message, France recalled its ambassadors to Washington DC and Canberra. It has since confirmed that its ambassador to the US will return to his post. This came after French President Emmanuel Macron spoke to his US counterpart Joe Biden and the two agreed to meet in person in Europe in October-end.
In a joint statement, they said: “The two leaders agreed that the situation would have benefited from open consultations among allies on matters of strategic interest to France and our European partners.”
But it stopped short of an apology from the US or a solution acceptable to the French.
What’s next?
Talking about status quo, opinion surveys suggest that Iceland's governing party will retain power in the parliamentary election next week.
The six-month long 2020 World Expo will open in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates after being delayed for a year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Plus, there’s hardly any doubt that climate change will be the defining issue of our times. I’m hoping to talk about (rather squeezing in) more stories about climate change and the global effort (or the lack of it) to tackle it as we inch closer to the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference in November.
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