China’s Pacific push derailed?
Plus, Danes scrap their EU defence opt-out
Hello! I hope you have a great weekend ahead. I’m particularly excited about the football world cup qualifier match between Ukraine and Wales that’ll happen in Cardiff this Sunday. The winner will reach the main world cup event to be held in Qatar later this year. The Welsh football team, now led by Gareth Bale, haven’t qualified for the world cup since 1958. It’s being called the “biggest game in Welsh history since”. But on the other hand, we have Ukraine. I’m sure a lot of people across the world are rooting for the Ukrainians to win because it would certainly lift the nation’s spirit amid the Russian invasion (it would be even more interesting because Russian participation in international football competitions, including this year’s world cup, has been blocked because of war in Ukraine).
This week, we’re exploring what the Pacific island nations’ rejection of a wide-ranging Chinese deal means for them, China, and the United States and its allies.
We’re also looking at Argentina taking step towards joining the BRICS grouping, members of the European Union (EU) agreeing to partial embargo of Russian oil imports, Danes scrapping their EU defence opt-out, Queen Elizabeth II’s platinum jubilee, why changing Turkey’s name (sort of) is important to the country’s president and why the Saudis aren’t ‘pariah’ for US President Joe Biden anymore. Let’s get started.
This day that year
2006: Parliament of Montenegro formally restored the country’s independence following a referendum, ending more than 80 years of its state union with Serbia.
1989: The People’s Liberation Army was called in by the Chinese government to crush a massive pro-democracy protest at the Tiananmen Square in capital Beijing. It’s widely believed that there were hundreds to several thousand civilian and military deaths.
China’s Pacific push derailed?
A sweeping trade and security pact that China was hoping to sign with 10 Pacific island nations when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited those countries this week, was shelved after participating nations were unable to reach consensus on the deal amid concerns over some of its aspects. This is being seen by some as a major setback for Chinese foreign policy ambitions in the region — at least for the time being.
The “Common Development Vision” deal reportedly covered a number of areas ranging from cybersecurity to a police training academy funded by China, and establishing Chinese cultural links across the Pacific island nations. It also talked about jointly developing a fisheries plan with the island nations and improving cooperation on the area’s internet networks. Beijing was further raising the possibility of setting up a free trade area. China was using the promise of financial assistance and access to the massive Chinese market to lure the Pacific nations into signing the deal. All this was meant to bring the region closer to China and gradually into Beijing’s sphere of influence.
The Chinese foreign minister was hoping that the Pacific island nations would agree to the deal during a May 30 meeting he held in Fiji with his counterparts from each of those 10 nations.
Some leaders were more open in criticism of China’s proposed deal. David Panuelo, the president of the Federated States of Micronesia, earlier wrote a long letter to other regional leaders declaring that his country won’t sign the deal and warned them of negative consequences for the region if they did. Panuelo warned that Beijing’s proposal would lead to Chinese influence in government and economic control of those nations’ important industries such as fisheries. “The [deal] seeks Chinese control and ownership of our communications infrastructure, as well as customs and quarantine infrastructure ... for the purpose of biodata collection and mass surveillance of those residing in, entering, and leaving our islands, ostensibly to occur in part through cybersecurity partnership,” Panuelo warned. Palau and Tuvalu, which remain aligned with Taiwan instead of China, also joined in criticising the proposed agreement. Niue said it wanted more time to consider China’s proposal as it covered strategic interests. Some other nations said further discussions are required if consensus was to be achieved.
The Chinese foreign minister, however, asserted that China was merely supporting developing nations in Africa, Asia and the Caribbean. “Don’t be too anxious and don’t be too nervous, because the common development and prosperity of China and all the other developing countries would only mean great harmony, greater justice and greater progress of the whole world,” he said.
China had signed a similar deal with the Solomon Islands in April, undercutting efforts by Australia and the United States to block such an attempt. Australia was irked by the Solomon Islands signing the security pact with China which reportedly allows the Chinese military to station its warships in the island nation — giving it the ability to quickly deploy its law enforcement and armed forces on the ground in the Solomon Islands when requested by the local government. Such Chinese military presence in the region — historically Australia’s sphere of influence — doesn’t sit well with Canberra. While it doesn’t mean that China will start stationing a large number of its military personnel or build a base in the Solomon Islands immediately, it gives China a clear foothold in the region. The Australian government sees the Chinese security deal with the Solomon Islands as the first clear sign of China’s intent in the region.
But shelving of this deal by Pacific island nations isn’t the end of the story. China’s push in the region may be thwarted for now, but this is unlikely to be permanent. Though the Pacific island nations have rejected the deal for the time being, they continue to benefit from Chinese investment. If Australia and the US are unable to match the Chinese efforts in the region, the balance may tip in the future.
Beijing’s influence is likely to continue to grow in the region. In fact, the Chinese foreign minister did sign many bilateral deals during his visit this week. More importantly, China will only see the rejection of its proposal as work in progress. The Pacific islands will continue to be an important region for China to exert its influence. But a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ remains one of the most important foreign policy objectives for the US, as well as its allies like Australia, too. Australia’s new government has already started working on reinforcing the country’s commitment to its smaller Pacific neighbours. This means, the Pacific region will increasingly emerge as a venue for a great power politics between China and the US in the years to come. Yet, that is exactly what the Pacific island nations are concerned about. They don’t want to become pawns in the China-US competition. As Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama said in separate tweets in the past week: “our greatest concern isn’t geopolitics — it’s climate change” and that “the Pacific needs genuine partners, not superpowers that are super-focussed on power”.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This aerial image shows the capital of an archipelago territory located off the Patagonian coast. While it’s part of a country situated a bit far way, another country situated closer to it maintains a strong claim to the islands. The two countries were involved in a short war over the islands in 1982 and the archipelago’s ownership remains disputed even today.
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Argentina takes step towards joining BRICS
Argentina is likely to participate in the BRICS Summit hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. The invitation to Argentina was extended by host China following consensus among foreign ministers of BRICS nations about the group’s expansion. Argentina’s participation in the BRICS heads of state meeting is being seen as a key step towards joining the group of major emerging economies. Joining BRICS will also give Argentina access to the group’s New Development Bank (NDB).
Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had suggested that Saudi Arabia had also shown interest in BRICS activities.
EU agrees to partial embargo of Russian oil imports
Members of the European Union (EU) this week agreed to impose an embargo on most Russian oil imports, as part of sanctions to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The fresh embargo will immediately impact 75 percent of Russian oil imports into the EU, and will cut about 90 percent of oil imports from Russia there by the end of 2022. Consensus was reached following hectic negotiations among EU members as some states such as Hungary — that buy a lot of Russian oil — had opposed such sanctions citing rise in fuel costs.
Saudis not ‘pariah’ for Biden
US President Joe Biden will travel to Saudi Arabia where he’ll meet all-powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (MBS), as well as leaders from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, among others, later this month.
This is a major U-turn for Biden’s foreign policy under which he had, as a presidential candidate, had promised to turn Saudi Arabia into a ‘pariah’ state, mainly in response to the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi — a prominent Saudi dissident. Biden had also promised to stop American arms shipments to Saudi Arabia and make public the US intelligence details (which he did release) about the Saudi crown prince’s alleged role in Khashoggi’s assassination.
While Biden had avoided talking to MBS for over a year of his presidency, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced his administration to look for other energy suppliers as an alternative to Russia. With midterm elections in November, Biden also needs to ensure that energy prices don’t shoot up. Biden will now seek to repair US-Saudi ties.
Danes scrap EU defence opt-out
People in Denmark voted in a referendum this week to allow their country to participate in the EU’s common security and defence policy — scrapping a 30-year opt out. This allows the Danish military to participate in EU military missions. The move, coming after the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the European security landscape, was approved by 66.9 percent voters.
Denmark is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), just like many other European nations. But when Denmark joined the EU, it had negotiated to opt out of participating in the union’s military missions. This meant that Denmark had no role in most of the EU’s defence and security initiatives so far.
The public approval, once finalised by the Danish lawmakers, will now allow better security cooperation between the Danes and other European nations.
Queen’s platinum jubilee
The United Kingdom and some Commonwealth nations are celebrating the platinum jubilee — marking 70 years since Queen Elizabeth II ascended the British throne. This is the first time that a British monarch is celebrating a platinum jubilee. She has received congratulatory messages from leaders across the world, even North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
But the jubilee celebrations come at a time of growing questions over the United Kingdom staying united amid crisis. The country is still recovering from the dual shocks of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, a cost-of-living crisis, the deepening political crisis over Northern Ireland and the Scottish independence movement gaining momentum. About 85 percent of the British population was born after Elizabeth II became the queen in 1952. Therefore, she’s the only monarch a vast majority of people across the country have seen in their lifetime. Some argue that the queen continues to be, more than ever before, a glue that keeps the union together.
What’s in a name?
The United Nations has accepted the Turkish government’s request to change the country’s name from “Turkey” to “Türkiye” at the multilateral organisation. The Turkish government had formally tweaked the country’s name — or at least the way it’s spelt and pronounced — to “Türkiye” in late 2021.
The rationale behind the name change was that “Türkiye” represents Turkish culture, language and values better than “Turkey” which is seen as being Western. The name change doesn’t seem radical because the country was always called Türkiye when spoken in Turkish. Turkish companies have already been asked to use “Made in Türkiye” on the products they are exporting, and state authorities have also been told to use the name “Türkiye” as well. Yet, the timing gives us context. Turkish strongman President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will face general elections next year and he’s currently not in a good position to win the polls because of the major economic crisis the country is facing. So, this decision is being seen as part of Erdogan’s broader strategy of tapping into nationalism to sail through.
Interesting stuff
“The other emirates worry not that Abu Dhabi holds the power, but how it uses it.” Muhammad bin Zayed, the United Arab Emirates’ new president and the ruler of Abu Dhabi, could promise power to a new generation, and take it away from the other emirates. Read the full story by The Economist here.
“If painful defeats really sent clear warnings to others, the Soviet and American experiences in Afghanistan and the US experience in Iraq after 2003 would have taught [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and his associates that invading Ukraine was likely to trigger a powerful nationalist reaction and encourage outside powers to do what they could to thwart his aims.” Stephen Walt, American political scientist and the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University, argues in Foreign Policy that calls to inflict a decisive defeat on Russia are misguided and won’t necessarily prevent Russian President Putin, or others, from using force again. Read the full piece here.
“The disconnect between Turkey and its NATO allies may grow in the coming years, given divergences over national security priorities and Ankara’s willingness to use its position within Western institutions to coerce its allies.” Aaron Stein, author and director of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, writes for War on the Rocks about the best pathway for the US and its European allies to manage their relations with Turkey. Read the full piece here.
“Beijing is fully entrenched, its power irrepressible if not always embraced. And that has left the United States playing catch-up in a vital strategic arena.” Damien Cave writes in The New York Times about why China is miles ahead in the Pacific race for influence. Read the full article here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Falklands Islands. The islands are a dependency of the United Kingdom as they are part of the British overseas territory. Argentina, which calls the islands ‘Islas Malvinas’, claims the archipelago as its own. While the islands have internal self-governance, the UK has the responsibility to defend them and for their foreign affairs. The aerial image shows Stanley, the capital of the Falklands. The Argentina-UK Falkland War’s 40th anniversary will be marked in mid-June.
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