Bonjour! I hope you have a great weekend ahead, especially if you have a long weekend. This week we’re looking at how the result of the ongoing French presidential election could impact the coherence of the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The two candidates involved in the final round — centrist French President Emmanuel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen — have contrasting views of France’s role in Europe.
We’re also looking at the economic crisis in Sri Lanka, Finland potentially moving towards joining NATO, Mexican president’s recall referendum win and how COVID-19 lockdown in China’s Shanghai has led to rare public unrest. Let’s get started.
This day that year
2019: Roof of the Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral — a UNESCO World Heritage Site — in France, accidentally caught fire during restoration. The fire destroyed the roof, the cathedral’s 19th-century spire and damaged the upper walls. Within days, a fundraising campaign raised pledges worth more than €1 billion for its restoration.
2013: Two terrorists and brothers detonated homemade bombs near the finish line of the Boston Marathon. Three people were killed and more than 260 were injured. Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26, was captured but died during a shootout with the police soon after the bombing. His brother Dzhokhar, 28, was convicted and sentenced to death (he remains on death row).
How the French election result would impact EU and NATO
French President Emmanuel Macron and rival Marine Le Pen, this week, progressed to the second and final round of the country’s presidential election. It’s going to be a re-match of 2017. The deciding round of polling will happen on April 24. French presidents serve a five-year term that is renewable once. Therefore, Macron, who’ll complete his first term this May, is looking to become the first president to retain power since Jacques Chirac (re-elected in 2002).
Macron won about 27 percent of the votes in the first round, ahead of Le Pen’s 23 percent. The remaining votes went to a number of other candidates across the political spectrum who failed to progress to the final round. Voters who didn’t vote for Macron or Le Pen are expected to switch to either of the two on April 24, helping one of them get a majority.
Macron vs Le Pen
Macron, 44, has led the race so far and The Economist’s forecasting model suggests he has an 83 in 100 chances of getting re-elected. But the remainder of this campaign is an uphill battle for Macron and things have gotten tight – as the first-round result suggests. One, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has tied him down to work and has denied him time to campaign as much as his opponent. Two, he’s fighting an anti-incumbency sentiment — as anyone seeking re-election would. Since Charles de Gaulle (in 1965), French voters have not re-elected a president who has a majority in parliament. He is a centrist candidate — positioned to provide an alternative to the far-left and far-right of French politics. This worked for him in the 2017 polls when he defeated Le Pen by a comfortable margin.
Le Pen, 53, belongs to the far-right and leads the National Rally (earlier called the National Front), a party founded by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen. However, her biggest hurdle was that she was seen as being too far-right. Or, not moderate-right enough to appeal to the centrist voters. However, the emergence of first round candidate Éric Zemmour — who stands further on the right – made Le Pen look like a moderate-right candidate. Le Pen’s popularity has swelled in recent weeks and she even managed to close the gap between her and Macron significantly ahead of the first round. Now, she’s being endorsed by right-wing politicians Zemmour and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan.
As the war in Ukraine began, the European security architecture changed and people in France rallied behind Macron amid the new external threat. This helped boost his popularity. But Le Pen has since changed tack and crafted her campaign largely around daily issues such as rising cost of living and the perception that her rival is not in sync with everyday hardships citizens are facing. She has also highlighted how Macron would raise the pension age from 62 years to 65.
What Le Pen’s win would mean for Europe
France has always been a major component of the EU and NATO. The United Kingdom leaving the EU and German chancellor Angela Merkel’s exit from the political scene in recent times has created a leadership void in European politics that France is looking to fill. Macron’s win would keep France on the path it is currently on.
But unlike Macron who is pro-Europe, Le Pen’s politics is nationalistic and Eurosceptic (someone who opposes increasing the EU’s influence). She has taken a tough stance against immigration, vowed to impose fines against Muslims who wear headscarves in public and her policies are protectionist. Le Pen has opposed recent sanctions against Russia gas imports and has said that NATO must seek “strategic rapprochement” with Russia after the war in Ukraine is over. Le Pen wants to withdraw France from NATO’s integrated military command and isn’t supporting the French military’s participation in the future European command.
In 2017, Le Pen had said she shared the same values as Russian President Vladimir Putin and that a “new world order” would emerge with Putin, then US president Donald Trump and herself in leadership positions. She had even justified the Russian invasion of Crimea. She had met Putin ahead of the 2017 election and had even received Russian loans for her party — something she’s hoping the public wouldn’t focus too much on.
She has, of course, changed some of her positions since. While in the previous election campaign Le Pen was pushing for France to leave the EU and the Eurozone, she now claims that she doesn’t want a “Frexit”. Instead, she wants to cut French contributions to the EU. With public sentiment in France against Russia at the moment, Le Pen has said that she had partially changed her views about Putin and that the Russian leader had “crossed a red line” by attacking Ukraine.
Read more: Macron and Le Pen have very different visions for Europe
Either way, Le Pen’s plans are in conflict with the path France has been on so far. At a time when European nations and NATO members are seeking unity and coherence to counter an external security threat, Le Pen’s possible win could make things difficult for them.
The question is: do matters of foreign policy affect the way the French vote? The answer can prove to be the difference between a Macron win or a Le Pen win.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This picture shows the largest urban area in Scandinavia. It’s a capital city built across 14 islands and the earliest written mention of its name can be traced back to 1252. This one shouldn’t be difficult. What place is this?
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Shehbaz Sharif’s challenges
Shehbaz Sharif was sworn-in as Pakistan’s prime minister on April 11. Shehbaz is the younger brother of three-time prime minister and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) founder Nawaz Sharif. Shehbaz had previously served as the chief minister of the country’s largest province, Punjab, on multiple occasions. Imran Khan was ousted as the prime minister after losing the no-confidence vote in the National Assembly in the early hours on April 10, following a day full of dramatic political developments.
Shehbaz’s task is cut out. The next general election could be called anytime between six months from now and mid-2023. Which means, he has a short time frame to secure and maintain public support for his ruling coalition. However, Pakistan is going through an economic crisis and he will be forced to take not-so-populist decisions to fix problems. Plus, the ruling coalition will have to heal a politically-divided nation. Khan has been thrown out of power, but he continues to enjoy support from his core voter base. People turned out in large numbers on the streets of Pakistan’s largest cities on April 10 in Khan’s support and against what he claimed was an act of “foreign interference” (referring to the alleged link between the purported “threat letter” and the no-confidence vote) in the country’s governance. “I was not dangerous when I was part of the government, but I will be more dangerous now,” as Khan put it.
Update: Sri Lanka’s economic crisis
Sri Lanka announced this week that it’ll temporarily default on $35.5 billion in foreign debts amid the country’s worst economic crisis. Seeking financial assistance, the country has continued its talks with other nations and will start negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a “comprehensive programme”. The governor of Sri Lanka’s central bank has also appealed for donations in the British Sterling-Pound, the Euro and US Dollar, assuring that this much-needed foreign currency will be used only for importing essentials such as food, medicine and fuel.
Meanwhile, protests against the ruling Rajapaksa family have continued. In Colombo, protesters are now camping at the iconic Galle Face beach outside the president’s office. The Sinhalese New Year celebration didn’t seem to deter their participation in the demonstrations. The main opposition party is also threatening to bring in a no-confidence motion against the government, which has lost majority in parliament, if the president and the prime minister don’t resign within a week. On April 13, however, the Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s office said he was ready to hold talks with the protesters.
Read more: Sri Lanka’s default could be the first of many
Shanghai lockdown
Shanghai, the largest city in China, reported more than 27,000 new COVID-19 cases on April 14. That’s a new daily record for the city. What is interesting is that the city has been swamped by the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 – the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 — despite being under a hard lockdown involving mass testing and extensive institutional quarantines, for weeks.
Residents in the city, with a population of around 25 million, are facing shortage of food, medicines and other essentials. Chinese society is heavily controlled by the ruling communist party with no room for public dissent. But things have gotten so difficult in the city that the situation has resulted in rare and open public protests, especially on social media (though quickly censored). This forced authorities to ease some restrictions this week.
Read more: Desperation amid food shortages in Shanghai as COVID-19 lockdown bites
While much of the world has dropped most COVID-related restrictions and even countries like Australia and New Zealand have junked their ‘COVID Zero’ strategy, China has continued to do what it was doing in early 2020 when the pandemic began. In fact, Reuters reported citing a study by Gavekal Dragonomics, that 87 of China’s 100 largest cities (by gross domestic product) had imposed some form of quarantine curbs. And there are no signs of things changing. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reiterated that the country must continue its strict lockdown policy. Why? Experts suggest that this is a critical moment for Xi. The 68-year-old is looking to secure an unprecedented third-consecutive five-year term as the country’s leader. That decision will be made at a major event of the Chinese Communist Party later in the year. The Chinese leadership doesn’t want a wave of COVID-19 cases in the country between now and the party event as it would demolish the carefully-crafted public notion that China’s model of tackling the pandemic is superior.
AMLO wins recall referendum
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, won the country’s first recall referendum this week. The controversial referendum meant to determine if he should continue till the end of his single six-year tenure or promptly step down was sought by himself. During his presidential election campaign, he had promised to hold this recall referendum about half-way into his tenure.
AMLO, 68, won more than 90 percent of the votes (asking him to remain) however the turnout was just about 18 percent. He would have had to quit if people had voted against him with the turnout being more than 40 percent – when it would have been legally binding. Opposition parties discouraged people from voting in the referendum saying it was part of AMLO’s propaganda. The exercise was also criticised as a waste of public money. AMLO’s popularity ratings remain high because of the implementation of welfare programmes and his anti-corruption stance. So, the referendum’s result wasn’t unexpected. However, his critics have raised concerns that he may now use the result of this referendum to pursue removal or change of the presidential term limit. AMLO has, however, insisted that he doesn’t intend to tweak the term limit.
Finland to decide on NATO membership within weeks
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin confirmed on April 13 that her country is just a few weeks away from making a decision on joining the NATO. The aim seems to be submitting a membership bid as early as June. The application is likely to be fast-tracked due to high level compatibility between NATO and Finnish defence forces. Since the end of the Second World War, Finland had avoided joining NATO so as to not antagonise its neighbour, Russia. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought about a paradigm shift in the European security architecture — forcing nations, including Finland and Sweden – to look at joining NATO as an option to guarantee its security. We had discussed this, Finland’s de-‘Finlandisation’ in detail in the March 18 edition.
Russia obviously isn’t comfortable with this possibility. Moscow doesn’t want another NATO member at its doorstep — something it was ostensibly trying to avoid in the case of Ukraine. Therefore, Russia has said it would be forced to strengthen its deployments in the Baltic if Finland and Sweden join NATO. This strengthening of its defences would include deployment of nuclear weapons in the region.
Interesting stuff
“One person cannot sustain the radical centre. That is not only because too much is riding on each re-election and on a successor turning up, but also because, as centrists know, individuals are flawed.” Here’s The Economist’s take on the challenge political centrism is facing in France and why Macron presents a cautionary tale for centrists elsewhere.
“Khan will milk his anti-American conspiracies for all they’re worth.” Mihir Sharma writes in Bloomberg about how Imran Khan’s anti-Americanism masks the real issue plaguing Pakistan. Read the full opinion piece here.
You are set to get one year younger if you are in South Korea. The country’s president-elect will be amending the law to reset the way a person’s age is counted. South Korea will switch from “Korean age” to the way age is calculated elsewhere. This is being done to reduce costs linked to allowing more than one way of counting a person’s age. As per the Korean age system, people are one-year-old at birth and become older on New Year’s Day irrespective of when their birth date is. While this Korean age system is common in the county, official records generally follow the international standard of starting from zero at birth and counting the number of years after that. South Korean health authorities have been using both systems interchangeably while determining age brackets for COVID-19 vaccine eligibility and passes. This has led to a lot of confusion. Hence, support for making his switch has grown. Read more on that here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Stockholm, Sweden.
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