Olá! I hope you have a pleasant weekend ahead. This week, we’re looking at what Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is doing to retain power in the South American country as he continues to trail by a wide margin in opinion surveys ahead of the presidential election.
We’re also looking at why the United Kingdom has moved to override the Northern Ireland Protocol, what United States President Joe Biden’s West Asia tour will entail and why European leaders visited Kyiv, Ukraine. Let’s get started.
This day that year
1944: Iceland became a republic — dissolving its union with Denmark. Sveinn Björnsson became the country’s first president and the only one to have not been elected directly by the people.
1940: The Soviet Union occupied the Baltic states of Estonia and Latvia during the Second World War, two days after occupying Lithuania.
Is Bolsonaro plotting a self-coup?
Jair Bolsonaro, the president of Brazil, has always been a polarising figure in his country. Now, he’s also increasingly unpopular. The 67-year-old is known for his antics and a populist brand of politics that helped him win the 2018 election. While he belongs to the right-wing Liberal Party, his actions earn him the tag of being a far-right leader. He has previously made derogatory remarks against the LGBT+ community, has publicly endorsed physical violence as a legitimate form of political action and openly questioned Brazil being a secular state. “God above everything. There is no such thing as this secular state. The state is Christian and the minority will have to change, if they can,” Bolsonaro had once said (though his position on this eventually evolved).
An admirer of former US president Donald Trump, Bolsonaro underplayed the threat of COVID-19 through the pandemic. His government’s policies have been linked to Brazil having one of the highest recorded COVID-19 fatalities per million population among large nations. He went on to make a bizarre claim that COVID-19 vaccines can turn humans into crocodiles. Though he didn’t oppose people getting vaccinated, his comments were discouraging for the masses. Brazil’s health regulator had to ask him to retract criticism of vaccines.
His popularity as the president, however, had started falling gradually even before the pandemic started. Nothing that his administration did over the past two years was able to revive his political prospects. Now, as the country prepares for the 2022 general election in October (which includes the presidential, vice-presidential and parliamentary elections), Bolsonaro is facing a mammoth challenge. He’s currently trailing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the rival Workers’ Party by double digits in the opinion surveys.
Who is Lula? Lula served as Brazil’s president between 2003 and 2010, after which he made way for his Chief of Staff Dilma Rousseff to take over the country’s top job. Lula remained massively popular while in office and after he quit. But years later in 2017, Lula was convicted on charges of corruption and money laundering in what is seen as a controversial trial. The retired metalworker and former trade unionist was sent to prison (the federal judge who delivered the verdict later became the minister of justice in Bolsonaro’s government). Following an unsuccessful appeal, Lula was jailed and wasn’t able to contest the 2018 election which Bolsonaro won. But in 2019, the Supreme Court found that Lula’s incarceration was unlawful and nullified the 76-year-old’s conviction in 2021 saying that the lower court that had punished him didn’t have jurisdiction over the case. This restored Lula’s political rights and permitted him to contest the upcoming election.
According to the latest opinion polls, Lula is the frontrunner to become the next president. If Bolsonaro faces Lula one-on-one in a possible second round of presidential polls, Bolsonaro is likely to lose by a margin of 20 percentage points. Sensing that there’s a distinct chance of him losing the election, Bolsonaro seems to be plotting what Trump is accused of trying to do after the latter lost the 2020 US presidential election to Joe Biden: stage a self-coup.
For almost a year, despite very little evidence of fraud having happened in the past, Bolsonaro has sought to discredit the country’s electoral system. “A new class of thieves has emerged who want to steal our freedom,” Bolsonaro said earlier this month. “If necessary, we will go to war.” He has also said that he’ll seek an audit of the electronic voting system. A news report by Reuters suggests that even the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had conveyed to Bolsonaro’s top aides in 2021 that the Brazilian president should stop undermining confidence in the country’s voting system.
The plan seems to be simple: make such statements in advance to lay the groundwork for eventually challenging and delegitimising an adverse election result — just as Trump had allegedly sought to do in the US in 2020.
But unlike the US armed forces who stayed out of political instability that existed after the 2020 presidential election there, the leaders of Brazil’s military forces are getting involved — voicing their concerns about the upcoming election’s integrity. They have identified for the election authority, what they claim are, gaps in the country’s voting system. Military personnel have also been given seats on a transparency committee created to assuage misgivings Bolsonaro has publicly created about the voting system. But Bolsonaro has gone a step further to suggest that military personnel should carry out their parallel count on vote counting day. Observers suggest that Bolsonaro’s insistence on getting the Brazilian military involved in the polling process is to create a scenario where the armed forces let him stay in power by helping rig or negating the election result.
But why would the military help Bolsonaro? Bolsonaro is himself a former captain in the army and has openly supported the military dictatorship the country was under between 1964 and 1985. He has also ensured that the presidency has a tight grip over the armed forces. During his time in the top office, Bolsonaro is said to have appointed an unprecedented number of military personnel to civilian positions. This has effectively given military officers control over certain key aspects of governance and the federal budget. The Brazilian military hasn’t enjoyed this level of power since the dictatorship ended about 37 years ago. In exchange, Bolsonaro is seeking their support to retain his political power. For the military too, Bolsonaro is the best option to retain the power it currently enjoys.
What Bolsonaro may be trying to achieve here is, in fact, a perfect recipe for political instability in the major South American nation. With a few more months before the election, the political situation in Brazil could get uglier — with a distinct possibility of a self-coup.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This satellite image shows a small barren uninhabited island situated in the Arctic. This little island led to a nearly 50-year long pseudo-confrontation and a benign territorial dispute between two nations. No bullet was ever fired during this ‘Whisky War’ which ended this week. What place is this?
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
UK moves to override Northern Ireland Protocol
The government of the United Kingdom announced plans this week to introduce a law that would effectively override the Brexit deal it had signed with the European Union (EU) on Northern Ireland. The ‘Northern Ireland Protocol’, as it’s called, has caused tensions between London and Brussels since it came into force in early 2021.
The Republic of Ireland is a sovereign nation, but Northern Ireland is part of the UK. While Ireland is part of the European Union (EU), the UK is not. Northern Ireland is the only region of the UK that has a land border with Ireland, and as a consequence – with the EU. But, according to key agreements between Ireland and the UK, the land border between the two sides is supposed to always remain open with people and goods being allowed to travel both ways without being obstructed. This worked really well until the UK was part of the EU as no paperwork was needed to move goods across the border. But this arrangement became a problem after Brexit. The EU follows different food safety standards and requires certain products such as milk and eggs to be checked when entering the EU area from non-EU countries (such as the UK). Introducing checks between Ireland and Northern Ireland is a politically sensitive matter and would, in principle, kill the core tenet of the peace deal between the two sides. Therefore, when the UK left the EU, the two sides negotiated the Northern Ireland Protocol. Under this protocol, goods would be subjected to checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK itself (essentially at ports of entries in Northern Ireland), not at the Ireland-Northern Ireland border, and Northern Ireland will continue to follow EU food safety standards. But some people (especially Unionists from Northern Ireland) argued that conducting checks at Northern Ireland’s ports effectively meant that there was a border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain — both of which are part of the UK (it’s like drawing an international border through a country).
What is the UK government’s plan? The UK government wants to solve this problem by creating green and red lanes for products being transported from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. The green lane would be for products meant for Northern Ireland only, and the red lane would be for goods that are for the Republic of Ireland and the European Single Market. Green lane would be exempt from border checks, but the red lane will have customs controls and checks.
But the EU is not willing to renegotiate the Northern Ireland Protocol — though it is okay with making some improvements to the existing arrangement. Brussels claims that the UK is breaking international law by unilaterally pushing changes to the trade protocol. The UK government still needs to pass the new law in parliament.
Biden’s West Asia tour scheduled
The White House has confirmed that United States President Joe Biden will make his first presidential visit to West Asia in July. It was earlier reported that Biden could visit the region in late June. He’ll visit Israel, Palestine and Saudi Arabia. Before capping off his visit with a meeting with regional leaders in Jeddah, Biden will “see” Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, or MBS — completing a U-turn of foreign policy approach he had promised towards the Saudi regime during his election campaign.
As discussed in the June 3 edition: During the presidential election campaign, Biden had promised to turn Saudi Arabia into a ‘pariah’ state, mainly in response to the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi — a prominent Saudi dissident. He had also promised to stop American arms exports to Saudi Arabia and make public the US intelligence details (which he did release) about MBS’ alleged role in Khashoggi’s assassination.
Experts believe that the global energy crisis sparked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and continued absence of a nuclear deal with Iran has led the Biden administration to rethink its approach towards diplomatically engaging with the Saudi crown price. Biden had avoided talking to MBS since taking office.
Biden recently insisted that the visit to West Asia wasn’t linked to spiking global energy prices. But with the US midterm election in just a few months, the Biden administration is pushing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Plus, in which Saudi Arabia is a dominant player, to increase oil production. Improving relations between Israel and the Arab states further will also be a major objective of the tour.
I2U2: US President Biden will also host a virtual summit attended by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Israel PM Naftali Bennett and United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during this West Asia visit. It’ll be the first leader-level meet of the new grouping called “I2U2” (I for India and Israel, and U for the UAE and the US). Some commentators had previously described the group informally as a “West Asian Quad”. They are expected to discuss the food security crisis, among other areas of cooperation. The foreign ministers of the four nations had discussed maritime security, infrastructure, digital infrastructure and transport as part of this new framework in October 2021. We are expected to learn more about the group’s objectives in the times to come.
UK asylum flight to Rwanda cancelled after legal action
The first flight meant to deport asylum seekers in the United Kingdom to Rwanda was cancelled just minutes before take-off on June 14 following an intervention by the Strasbourg-based European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). About seven asylum seekers were to be moved to Rwanda from the UK. Yet, the UK's Home Secretary, Priti Patel, said that the government remains committed to the plan.
The UK government’s controversial asylum plan seeks to give some asylum seekers — who cross the English Channel to enter the UK — a one-way ticket to the East African country of Rwanda for them to claim asylum there instead. The government has claimed that the plan would discourage others from taking the dangerous route to enter the UK. This scheme has been heavily criticised for being ethically wrong and at odds with basic human rights.
The ECtHR is not part of the EU, but is a part of the Council of Europe of which the UK remains a member of.
Listen in — This podcast episode by Monocle 24: The Foreign Desk explains what’s happening
Macron, Scholz and others in Kyiv
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Ukraine on June 16. The visit by the leaders of the four North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states was to send a “message of unity” and reiterate support for Ukraine against the invasion by Russia.
Zelenskyy pushed for the West to send more weapons to fight the invading Russian forces. “We appreciate the support already provided by partners, we expect new deliveries, primarily heavy weapons, modern rocket artillery, anti-missile defence systems,” he said. “Every day of delay or delayed decisions is an opportunity for the Russian military to kill Ukrainians or destroy our cities.”
The leaders also backed Ukraine’s bid to apply for membership of the European Union. And, a day later, the European Commission also extended its support for Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova to get EU candidacy status. Zelenskyy said that it’s his country’s first step towards EU membership and that the European Commission’s backing would “certainly bring our victory closer”.
Interesting stuff
“[Russian President Vladmir] Putin’s mistakes were not unique; they were typical of those made by autocratic leaders who come to believe their own propaganda. He did not test his optimistic assumptions about the ease with which he could achieve victory.” Lawrence Freedman, author and Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, writes in Foreign Affairs about the limits of military power and why Russia’s invasion of Ukraine faltered. Read the full piece here.
A Pakistani Cabinet minister is being criticised after appealing to people of the nation to drink less tea, to help cut import spending amid an economic crisis. Pakistan is one of the world’s largest tea importers and the hot beverage is very popular there, much like the rest of South Asia. The country is said to be spending more than $600 million per annum on tea imports. Read more here.
From 1841 to 1941 and then between 1945 and 1997, Hong Kong was a colony and dependent territory of the British Empire. This is history as we know it. But school students in the financial hub, now a Special Administrative Region of China, may soon be taught that it was never a colony. The new textbooks are part of Beijing’s attempts to ingrain a certain narrative and to deliver more patriotic education to the city’s next generation. Read this story by The New York Times’ Tiffany May.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Hans Island, Canada and Denmark. Since 1973, Canada and Denmark (via its self-governed territory of Greenland) were locked in a non-violent confrontation over this island situated in the Nares Strait. Over the years, both countries took turns to send military contingents to the island to plant their respective flags and leave a bottle of whisky or schnapps for the other contingent. This was their way of staking claim to the territory. But this week, the two countries agreed to divide and share the uninhabited island — through the Canadian territory of Nunavut and the Danish constituent country of Greenland. Read more about this here.
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