Hello! I hope you have a great festive (and perhaps long) weekend ahead. I’m particularly excited about the Super 12 round of the ongoing Twenty20 cricket world championship. Hoping to watch some fantastic cricket over the coming weeks.
This week, we’re looking at the political chaos in the United Kingdom where Prime Minister Liz Truss has announced she’s resigning less than two months into the job. Truss’ short stint as the PM didn’t give her enough time to leave behind her own legacy, but her departure will have ramifications on the country’s politics and stability. We’re also looking at key elements of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s speech at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, Japan’s decision to investigate the Unification Church and Russia using ‘kamikaze’ drones in Ukraine. Let’s get started.
This day that year
2011: Then United States President Barack Obama announced that withdrawal of all American forces deployed in Iraq will complete by the end of that year. Troops had been sent there starting 2003 as part of the US-led invasion of Iraq.
1969: Far-left military officers of the Supreme Revolutionary Council led by Commander-in-Chief of the Somali armed forces, Mohamed Siad Barre, staged a coup d’état in Somalia. Barre’s authoritarian government ruled Somalia until the Horn of Africa country descended into civil war in 1991.
Lettuce outlasts Truss
Liz Truss announced her resignation as the United Kingdom’s prime minister on October 20 — admitting she can’t deliver on the mandate with which she took up the job. This came after Truss seemingly lost the grip on power and her own party after weeks of political turbulence. Truss had replaced Boris Johnson as the leader of the ruling Conservative party, and therefore, as the country’s prime minister in early September.
“I came into office at a time of great economic and international instability. Families and businesses were worried about how to pay their bills. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s illegal war in Ukraine threatens the security of our whole continent. And our country had been held back for too long by low economic growth. I was elected by the Conservative party with a mandate to change this,” Truss said.
“I recognise though, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative party.”
— Truss
Truss said she had already spoken to King Charles III and will continue as the caretaker prime minister until the Tories — as Conservative party members are called — pick her successor. The next party leader and thus, the next PM, will be known in about a week, Truss announced.
On the day of announcing her resignation, Truss had been the prime minister for only 45 days. Even if she takes more than a week to officially step aside, Truss would still be the shortest-serving UK PM ever.
Truss’ early exit was only a matter of time as her government was embroiled in crisis for almost a month now. But things really picked pace over the past week. In fact, some wondered over the past few days if her tenure could outlast the shelf-life of lettuce.
Truss’ position as the prime minister was already shaky. More Members of Parliament from her party had preferred former chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak for the top job in the leadership race that happened over the British summer. While she eventually defeated Sunak in the contest, her victory was made possible by a majority of the under 142,000 regular party members voting in her favour. Therefore, unlike her predecessor Boris Johnson who had clinched a mandate at the general election, Truss became the PM only because some 81,000 party members in a country of 67 million people wanted her to get that job. So, there was always a question mark over the mandate she had. The same would have been true had any other candidate won the contest.
Watch — ‘Liz Truss, lettuce and a lectern: 25 hours of chaos in three minutes’ by The Guardian:
Her government started falling apart with the disastrous mini-Budget presented on September 23 by her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng, who was later sacked for it. Truss was forced to make two embarrassing U-turns: scrapping tax cuts for the rich and on company profits following public outcry, adverse market reaction and a rare rebuke by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Kwarteng’s successor Jeremy Hunt scrapped almost all aspects of that economic strategy in a bid to steady the ship.
Read more: The UK’s growing economic crisis, explained (written before the policy U-turns, but still handy)
This week, her home secretary Suella Braverman was forced to resign from the Cabinet after she shared an official document with a parliament colleague using her personal email address, which breached the Ministerial Code. While admitting that she had made a mistake, Braverman snapped back at Truss saying she was “[concerned] about the direction of this government”.
Further, many of her own party lawmakers showed willingness to defy the party whip while voting on a bill in parliament, even as Truss declared she was a “fighter”. Senior leaders of Truss’ Conservative Party were also discussing a strategy to replace Truss, perhaps with Sunak, or Leader of the House of Commons, Penny Mordaunt, or someone else.
Outside, the writing was on the wall. About 71 percent of respondents to YouGov’s October 6 opinion poll said Truss was performing “badly” as the PM. Just 11 percent said she was doing “well”. Another YouGov poll showed disapproval towards the Truss government at 77 percent and approval at just 7 percent, as on October 17.
What happens next? Unlike the elaborate leadership contest that happened over the summer, the process has now been expedited. Anyone jumping into the race will have to file nominations by October 24 and will require the support of at least 100 party MPs. This will ensure a very small candidate pool and that will be eventually narrowed down to just two finalists through members ballots, if needed. Party members will vote online to pick the winner from the two finalists. If only one candidate manages to secure support from 100 MPs, he or she will become the party leader and the PM without any voting. The result is expected to be known by the end of next week.
Mordaunt and Sunak are believed to be in the running. Johnson, who was ousted as the leader just a few months ago following several scandals, is also keen on making a comeback, according to local news media reports. It wasn’t immediately clear if Braverman and other party leaders like Sajid Javid and Ben Wallace were planning to run. Truss’ new finance minister Hunt, and Cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Michael Gove declined to contest this internal election.
Opposition wants fresh polls
Leader of Opposition (and leader of the Labour party) Keir Starmer was quick to claim that the Tories no longer had the mandate to govern. “We must have a chance at a fresh start. We need a general election — now,” Starmer said.
It’s not difficult to understand why Starmer is pushing for an immediate general election. His Labour party has extended its lead in surveys checking people’s voting intention. In late-September, it had a 33-point lead over their rivals with 54 percent survey respondents saying they planned to vote Labour — the highest figure the party has ever recorded in any published survey since the late 1990s, according to YouGov. The Tories have been in power for 12 years now and are therefore seemingly facing some anti-incumbency even without these recent developments. The Labour senses a clear opportunity. Because of the prevailing sentiment, the Conservatives may face a total rout if elections were held immediately.
What has lettuce got to do with all this? Over the past few days, UK-based tabloid Daily Star ran a video livestream on its YouTube channel of an unrefrigerated rotting lettuce in a blond wig moving towards the end of its shelf-life. As Truss was quickly losing control of the situation, many had started wondering if her tenure as the prime minister would be shorter than the shelf-life of lettuce. I’m not sure who first suggested that her tenure may not outlast the shelf-life of lettuce, but I remember The Economist making that scathing observation on October 11. The Economist wrote in the column ‘The Iceberg Lady’ that Truss was in control only for about a week (not counting the 10-odd days of mourning the Queen Elizabeth II’s death), and that (a week) is the shelf-life of a lettuce. Of course, it’s all in jest. But, the lettuce on the livestream won.
Let’s not forget that beyond politics, the next PM will still have to deal with all the problems Truss was supposed to.
Xi’s speech
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) opened on October 16 in Beijing. The event is widely considered to be the most important event in Chinese politics.
Recap: All eyes on Beijing
Since Xi Jinping became China’s president 10 years ago, experts have been suggesting that the world’s most populous nation is moving away from the famous dictum one of its most powerful former leaders, Deng Xiaoping, had for his successors: “Hide your strength, bide your time, never take the lead”. That had remained the guiding philosophy of Chinese foreign policy in the decades after Deng. It meant that China must focus on economic development, avoid conflicts, stay neutral in other wars and keep out of sight until it finally emerges as a world leader. Developments in the ongoing party congress, especially Xi’s address to the gathering last weekend, were a reaffirmation of China’s departure from this philosophy.
Xi, in a way making it clear that he was here to stay and is getting a third consecutive term in power, asserted that “China’s international influence, appeal and power to shape have risen markedly”. Needless to say, he intends to harness it.
Here are the key and relevant points from Xi’s speech at the party congress:
Zero-COVID: China is perhaps the last major economy still following a Zero-COVID policy. The restrictions and lockdowns are taking a toll on businesses, daily life and the economy. Recent lockdowns in large cities like Shanghai had triggered rare pushback from the civil society. Observers were earlier expecting an announcement by Xi providing some dilution to the Zero-COVID policy. However, Xi defended the policy in his speech — hinting that it’s likely to stay.
Hong Kong: The financial hub of Hong Kong is a special administrative region within China and thus enjoys certain liberties and semi-autonomy. However, over the last few years the central government has quickly moved in to effectively revoke many of those liberties. This had led to massive protests there. Xi said the Law on Safeguarding National Security had helped restore order in Hong Kong and that the region is now governed by “patriots”.
Taiwan: China claims Taiwan as its own breakaway province (even though the CCP never controlled the island) and wants reunification, even as Taiwanese largely wish to remain independent. Reunification with Taiwan is a requisite in realising the “rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049.
Xi said China has “resolutely fought against separatism and countered interference” vis-à-vis Taiwan, demonstrated resolve and ability to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity and to oppose the island’s independence.
“We will continue to strive for peaceful reunification (with Taiwan) with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force, and we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary.”
— Xi
The Chinese president effectively reiterated Beijing’s position that it wants peaceful reunification of Taiwan with the mainland, but that it is willing to use force to achieve that “historic mission” if necessary.
Military modernisation: The 69-year-old leader said the Chinese government was making efforts to strengthen its military “in all directions and domains” and implementing military strategy for the “new era” and for defending the country’s sovereignty, security and “development interests”.
“We will continue integrated development of the military through mechanisation, informatisation, and the application of smart technologies and work faster to modernise military theory, organizational forms, personnel, and weaponry and equipment,” Xi said. He also said that more will be done to intensify training under combat conditions.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will become adept at deploying forces “on a regular basis and in diversified ways” enabling it to “shape our security posture, deter and manage crises and conflicts, and win local wars,” Xi added.
Read: Full text of Xi’s speech at the party congress, from Bloomberg
More updates, especially those related to appointment of the new Chinese premier and the revamped all-important CCP Politburo Standing Committee, are expected in the coming days. We’ll try to discuss them in the next newsletter edition.
What else?
Russia uses ‘kamikaze’ drones
Russia this week used “kamikaze” drones to strike critical infrastructure in various regions of Ukraine, including capital Kyiv. At least eight people were killed in these strikes. The wave of attacks led to electricity outages in hundreds of towns and villages. The term “kamikaze” was made famous by explosives-laden Japanese aircraft undertaking deliberate suicidal crashes on enemy targets during the Second World War.
These drones appear to be Iranian-made Shahed-136, Ukraine suggests. These attack drones are more like — or at least are being used like — loitering munitions that can cruise over an area before plunging to strike the target. Iran has denied that it supplied these drones to Russia, but the West suggests Tehran is lying. A Ukrainian military analyst told Reuters that the drones could have been possibly assembled in a third country like Syria or Tajikistan.
Ukraine managed to shoot down around 50 of these drones, Ukrainian air force’s Spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said. But Kyiv is asking for better air defence systems to counter such drones in the future. To this end, it’s now asking for Iron Dome systems from Israel (Iran’s rival).
Japan to probe Unification Church
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has ordered an investigation into the Unification Church following public outcry over the South Korean new religious movement’s alleged links to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It has come under heavy public scrutiny following the assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe in July. The probe will be conducted by Japan’s ministries for education, culture, sports, science and technology.
Abe’s assassin, Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, said he killed Japan’s longest-serving prime minister because of his support for the movement. Yamagami blames the Unification Church for his mother’s financial ruin. His mother, a follower, reportedly went bankrupt after donating around $667,500 to the movement. More followers then came forward to accuse the church of forcing such donations which led to greater media scrutiny of the sect and its links to legislators from the ruling LDP. The party’s internal survey later showed that almost half of their 379 national lawmakers were linked to the movement to varying degrees.
The Unification Church, which has around 600,000 members in Japan and about 100,000 of whom are active, has denied any wrongdoing. It has accused the Japanese media and lawyers of having “twisted” Abe’s assassination. The sect has also said that its members have since faced assaults, attacks and death threats.
While the LDP remains a dominant political force in Japan, the Kishida Cabinet’s approval ratings have dropped to under 30 percent (down nearly 5 percentage points in a month), according to a recent opinion survey by Jiji. While factors such as price rise may have contributed to his public mood, the LDP lawmakers’ links to the Unification Church is believed to be the main reason. This in turn prompted an investigation into the sect.
Interesting stuff
“Over the course of the war, Western leaders have become acutely aware of Russia’s military’s failings. But they do not seem to grasp that Russian foreign policy is equally broken.” Former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who defected after his country invaded Ukraine, has provided a first-hand account in Foreign Affairs of post-Soviet Russian diplomacy and why he believes Putin and his “yes men” went ahead with the war. Read the full article here.
“The worst-case scenario ... is of Britain stumbling from an economic and political crisis into something like a Greek-style democratic one, where markets demand their pound of flesh, but voters understandably balk, and politics tears itself apart in the middle. The country hangs by a thread. Give Boris Johnson the end of it, and we unravel.” Gaby Hinsliff argues in The Guardian that this is the opportunity to “root out the C-listers and crackpots who have dominated” the Conservative party since Brexit. Read the opinion piece here.
Fear of war has been a distant concern for people living in the Suwałki Gap — a NATO territory separating the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast and Moscow’s ally Belarus – for a long time. But their bigger worry is political rhetoric and warmongering taking over and perception becoming reality. Al Jazeera’s Natasha Bowler and Priyanka Shankar write this story.
“The world’s hegemon (the United States) and its only serious rival (China) now see each other through the same lens. As is usually the case in history, nobody else gets much of a say.” Author and columnist Edward Luce writes in the Financial Times about how US President Joe Biden has now made Washington DC’s goal of containing a rising China more explicit. Read the full piece here.
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