Hello! Hope you’re doing well. This week, we’re looking at the legacy of Mikhail Gorbachev — the last leader of the Soviet Union — who died this week. But we’re also taking a close look at the catastrophic floods in Pakistan, the United Kingdom’s likely next prime minister and the United Nations report accusing China of committing crimes against humanity in Xinjiang. Plus, the Chinese Communist Party congress now has a date (it’s important). Let’s get started.
This day that year
2008: Technology giant Google launched its Google Chrome web browser. It now commands the largest global market share among all web browsers.
1945: The Second World War officially ended when Japanese Foreign Minister Shigemitsu Mamoru and General Umezu Yoshijiro signed Japan’s formal surrender aboard the American navy ship USS Missouri.
Last Soviet leader dies
Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, died this week at a hospital in Moscow, Russia aged 91 following a long and serious illness. Gorbachev is considered one of the most significant personalities of the post-war 20th century and remains a controversial figure within Russia.
Gorbachev chaired the Supreme Soviet — the Soviet Union’s highest decision-making body — starting 1985 and became the head of state in 1988 until the country’s dissolution in 1991. He is widely recognised and credited for opening up the Soviet Union and for undertaking rapprochement with the West. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1990 for “the leading role he played in the radical changes in East-West relations”.
During his tenure, the Soviet military withdrew from Afghanistan and Germany was reunified (remember then US president Ronald Reagan’s famous “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!” speech), and the Soviets and the Americans agreed to a major arms control treaty. He attempted to steer the country, once ruled with an iron fist by the likes of dictator Joseph Stalin, towards social democracy. He launched the policies of “perestroika” which sought to decentralise economic decision-making in the communist state and “glasnost” to allow greater freedom of expression in what was a controlled-society until then. But, he was unable to prevent the country from dissolving in the early 1990s.
But some argue that the adulation Gorbachev receives, especially in the West, is misplaced. They see him as someone who destroyed a giant state through his policies that they claim allowed nationalists in the Baltic republics and elsewhere in the former Soviet bloc to successfully secure independence. They criticise him for accelerating the Union’s collapse which believe that he weakened Russia’s global influence and economic heft.
Years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev unsuccessfully contested the 1996 Russian presidential election — managing to win just half a percentage of the total votes. He stepped back from politics thereafter but remained a vocal critic of his successor, Boris Yeltsin, as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin. Gorbachev’s criticism of Putin was generally about Russia’s democratic backsliding and the government reintroducing political repression. Putin, on his part, considers the Soviet Union’s collapse as the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. Now, the Kremlin has effectively denied Gorbachev a state funeral. Putin himself is unlikely to attend it.
Read more: Vladislav Zubok writes in Foreign Policy about Gorbachev’s disputed legacy. Read the full piece here.
What else?
Pakistan floods
Recent floods in Pakistan has been described as the worst in the country’s history. This has been the result of heavier monsoon than usual and rapidly melting Himalayan glaciers following a severe heat wave in the summer. These have been linked to climate change. But experts point out that lack of adequate infrastructure for mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change are also to blame.
Over the past three months nearly 1,200 people have been killed because of flooding and related incidents. A state of emergency was declared last week. Sindh and Balochistan provinces received more than 784 percent and 500 percent rainfall more than their August average, respectively. Pakistan’s climate change minister has said that at one point, one-third of the country was underwater and the flooding was affecting 33 million people. This has also destroyed livestock and millions of acres of crops. The expected loss is about $10 billion. The country has sought international help.
Truss to become UK PM
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss looks set to replace Boris Johnson as the United Kingdom’s prime minister. Polling within the ruling Conservative Party for the party leadership — and in turn for the PM’s position — is to end at 5.00 pm British Summer Time (BST) on September 2 and the final result will be announced by September 5. Truss is already being predicted as the winner because she is believed to be leading former chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak by a wider margin. About 200,000 party members across the UK have been casting their ballots since August. Truss, 47, was always considered a frontrunner in this leadership race.
In a break from tradition, Queen Elizabeth II will appoint the next prime minister at the Balmoral Castle in Scotland instead of the Buckingham Palace in London, England. Truss’ task would be cut out. The UK is in the midst of a major cost of living crisis with energy prices expected to surge further over the coming winter with warnings of an imminent recession. The UK also continues to face the adverse impact of Brexit and there remain a number of internal political fault lines over the Northern Ireland protocol and the seemingly reinvigorated Scottish independence movement. As the incumbent foreign secretary, Truss has had a role in the help the UK has been providing Ukraine. The war in eastern Europe is showing no signs of abating and will continue to be a major focus area for her government.
Read more — Britain’s new PM faces an 80s playlist: recession, unrest and runaway prices
Xinjiang: UN accuses China of committing crimes against humanity
The United Nations (UN) has accused China of “serious human rights violations” against Uyghur Muslims and other ethnic minorities in its Xinjiang province. Investigators said they found “credible evidence” of torture possibly amounting to “crimes against humanity”. China denies these allegations.
The investigation was launched after years of warnings by activists and human rights groups about what was happening in Xinjiang. They have alleged that over a million Uyghurs had been forcibly detained in what China terms “re-education camps”. There have been allegations of rape, torture and forced sterilisation of ethnic minorities. Western news media outlets have documented many of these allegations.
The UN report suggests that “allegations of patterns of torture or ill-treatment, including forced medical treatment and adverse conditions of detention, are credible, as are allegations of individual incidents of sexual and gender-based violence”.
There are “credible indications of violations of reproductive rights through the coercive enforcement of family planning policies since 2017,” the report adds.
Additionally, the UN suggests that there are indications that employment schemes for the purported purposes of alleviating poverty and preventing “extremism” may include “elements of coercion and discrimination on religious and ethnic grounds”.
The long-awaited report was published this week in the final hours of the tenure of Michelle Bachelet, the outgoing UN human rights commissioner. Beijing had urged the UN not to release the report, calling it a “farce” orchestrated by Western powers to malign China.
The UN report can be read here and China’s full response can be read here.
CCP congress on October 16
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will begin on October 16. The CCP congress happens every five years to select China’s top leadership for a five-year tenure. The decisions are generally made in advance and the members rubber-stamp them at this event. This is expected to be a seismic event for China and will carry consequences for the world. President Xi Jinping, 69, is widely expected to break a recent precedent and seek a third term. The members are likely to approve this. This had become clear when the country’s legislature amended the Constitution in 2018 to remove the term limits for the president. The amended law allows Xi to remain in power for life subject to getting formally re-elected every five years.
Meanwhile, Premier Li Keqiang, the second most powerful leader in China, is unlikely to continue. It isn’t yet clear who’ll replace him.
This comes at a time when the Chinese economy has slowed and is reeling under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chinese leadership has a stated objective of achieving national “rejuvenation” by 2049 — the centenary year of the CCP storming to power. But recent struggles have called this goal into doubt.
Therefore, the CCP report reviewing the past five years and announcing plans for the next five will be closely watched. It will also provide key insights into Xi’s planning amid the intensifying great power competition between China and the US.
Breakthroughs in South Asia
Pakistan has secured a $1.1 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to narrowly avoid a default. The loan is crucial for the country. Continued political crisis and catastrophic flooding now are creating more problems for its already struggling economy. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka has also reached a staff-level deal with the IMF for a $2.9 billion loan. The bankrupt island nation would need more funding and this is being seen as an essential first step towards securing that.
Interesting stuff
“The vacuum Gorbachev left when he was compelled to retire, in 1991, has posed problems for both Russia and the West. Putin has interpreted this vacuum as Russia’s loss, and Putin speaks for many Russians in this regard.” Michael Kimmage writes in Foreign Affairs about how Gorbachev’s legacy helps explain Russia’s wars. Read the full piece here.
Sam Carliner writes in Responsible Statecraft about the new geopolitical and climate risks Arctic military build-up poses. Read the story here.
Bloomberg’s David Fickling writes about how years of corruption and underinvestment in Pakistan led to the current climate catastrophe. Read the piece here.
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