Poland-Belarus crisis and Europe’s COVID-19 surge
Plus, we're in the final stage of the COP26 climate action summit
Nǐ hǎo! I hope you had a great week, returning to work after Diwali. Is it just me, or has winter really started setting in (if you are reading this in the northern hemisphere)? Either way, Europe is likely to face a challenging winter. Many European countries are currently witnessing a surge in COVID-19 cases despite significant portions of their population being fully vaccinated against the infectious disease. Additionally, tensions are flaring in the eastern part of the continent where a new migrant crisis is brewing along the Polish-Belarusian border (but there’s more to it).
We’re looking at all that and taking a final look at what the world is likely to achieve at COP26.
This day that year
1990: Akihito, the 125th Japanese Emperor, was formally enthroned. He ascended the Chrysanthemum Throne almost two years after his father Hirohito’s (Emperor Showa) death. He abdicated in 2019 citing old age and declining health, and assumed the title of emperor emeritus.
1970: Cyclone Bhola struck East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) leading to more than 500,000 fatalities. It’s considered one of the world’s deadliest natural disasters ever recorded.
Crisis in eastern Europe
Poland, a member of the European Union, has deployed soldiers and police along its border with Belarus. This is not to wage a war, but to keep out thousands of migrants from West Asia who are hoping to crossover. At least eight people have died trying to cross the border, Polish authorities have said.
The West has accused Belarus, and its President Aleksandr Lukashenko, of orchestrating the migrants’ march to the Polish border. Western officials claim that Lukashenko is trying to deliberately spark a migrant crisis in Europe.
With winter setting in, the migrants are camping on the Belarusian side of the razor-wire fence (in the forest) near the Kuznica-Grodno border crossing. European officials are trying to strike a balance: protect EU’s borders from being breached and avert a humanitarian crisis.
BBC's explainer on how the migrants reach Belarusian capital Minsk.
Context: Belarus is not an EU member. Poland is. Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko has led his country seamlessly since 1994 and is often termed the “last dictator of [continental] Europe”. The former Soviet state of Belarus not only remains in Russia’s sphere of influence, but also acts as a strategic buffer between western Russia and the EU.
No wonder, Moscow has blamed the West for stoking the crisis. In fact, the Kremlin suggested that the EU should pay Belarus to help contain the crisis just as it had financially assisted Turkey in 2016.
Russia sent two Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers over Belarus for two consecutive days to show support for its ally. It was part of a joint training mission in which Belarusian fighter jets simulated an intercept.
The above tweet is by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a Belarusian human rights activist who is considered the country's main opposition leader. She is currently living in exile in Lithuania.
Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia have also said their mutual neighbour Belarus posed a serious threat to European security by initiating what they saw as a “hybrid attack” using migrants as an instrument to retaliate for existing EU sanctions. “This increases the possibility of provocations and serious incidents that could also spill over into the military domain,” a joint statement by these countries' defence ministers said. Poland is part of NATO and any skirmish along the Polish-Belarusian border may drag other members into the potential conflict.
Meanwhile, EU members agreed that the crisis constituted a legal basis for further sanctions against Belarus — first imposed after Lukashenko's disputed 2020 election victory. The bloc could bring dozens of individuals and entities, including the Belarusian foreign minister and the flag carrier, under the extended sanctions’ ambit. Lukashenko has threatened to retaliate against any of these new sanctions by blocking transit of Russian natural gas and goods to Europe through his country. Is the situation going to escalate? We’ll know soon.
Europe’s COVID winter, again?
European countries are witnessing a surge in COVID-19 cases. Austria has been reporting more than 10,000 new daily cases over the last few days — highest since the pandemic started.
There’s a similar situation in neighbouring Germany where the vaccine rollout has been one of the slowest among western European nations. The country reported more than 50,000 new cases on November 10. In the Netherlands, the seven-day average of new daily cases stood at nearly 11,500 on November 10. The seven-day average of new daily infections was over 40,000 in the United Kingdom. But it looks like the wave peaked in late-October. Daily cases are now seemingly subsiding.
The German health minister has been clear in his assessment that the country is experiencing “a pandemic of the unvaccinated”.
Around 63 percent of Austria’s population was fully vaccinated against the novel coronavirus by November 9. That number stood at around 69 percent in Germany on the same day, according to data compiled by Our World in Data. In the Netherlands, about 67 percent of the adult population had been given two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine by October 31. That’s similar to the UK’s level.
The response: Austria is expected to place millions of people who are not fully vaccinated against COVID-19 under a lockdown. Unvaccinated individuals will be barred from restaurants, theatres and providers of some “services close to the body” like barbershops. “A lockdown for the unvaccinated means one cannot leave one's home unless one is going to work, shopping (for essentials), stretching one's legs,” Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg said.
The Dutch government is also reportedly considering imposition of a partial lockdown for two weeks. This is likely to include closing theatres and cinemas, cancelling large events and shutting down restaurants and cafes early. Schools are likely to remain open. An expert panel’s recommendations sent to the Dutch government suggest that following the partial lockdown, entrance to public places should be limited to people who have been fully vaccinated or have recently recovered from COVID-19.
German capital Berlin is banning unvaccinated individuals from restaurants, bars, theatres, outdoor events with over 2,000 attendees and other entertainment venues from November 15.
Battle of our lives
As I write this, the COP26 climate action talks are in their final stage after two weeks of hectic parleys in Glasgow, UK. World leaders, officials and negotiators have seemingly failed to resolve deadlocks on a number of key disputes vital to averting devastation caused by climate change.
But a final agreement is still being worked on (the latest draft version from November 12 morning can be accessed here). The current working version appeared to soften the language around phasing out of fossil fuels and coal. This was done to ensure that the wording is agreeable to all participating nations.
The draft also called on ‘rich’ countries to double the amount of money they spend, by 2025, on helping low-income countries adapt to climate change. Additionally, an initial draft agreement showed that countries were being urged to improve their carbon-cutting targets by 2022-end. It's unclear if these points would make it to the final understanding. We’ll have to wait and watch.
Other developments from this week:
The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) research group said that 2.4 degrees Celsius of global warming was likely this century, despite countries’ promises to tackle climate change. The recent pledges by nations at COP26 to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 would still allow the planet to heat up significantly more than the United Nations’ agreed target of 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. Read the full report here.
China and the US announced that they would work together to do more to cut emissions of greenhouse gases in the 2020s. For the first time, China committed to reducing methane emissions. This is significant as the two countries are the world’s two biggest polluters.
Yet, China signalled that it won’t agree to a coal phase-out or better frequency of improved climate pledges.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said a group he had convened to check nations' net-zero commitments will submit recommendations to him over the course of the next year. This is an attempt to hold governments accountable and ensure they follow through on their net-zero promises.
Campaigners and activists staged a walkout at the event venue early on November 12 condemning the legitimacy and lack of ambition of the conference.
The summit is expected to conclude with the final agreement being released by late Friday or Saturday.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching. This image shows part of an island that you don’t hear about every day. The island is in the middle of nowhere. But it was in the news this week for a defence-related development. It could be at the centre of a potential future flashpoint between two great powers. Needless to say, it’s strategically important.
Additional hint: It’s not Hawaii. But if that’s what you thought, you might be on the correct track in some way.
The correct answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Xi elevated
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s status in the country’s history was further elevated by the ruling Communist Party in a rare resolution on November 11. This allows Xi to further consolidate his authority over the one-party, and now increasingly a one-person-command state. More importantly, this increases the chances of Xi securing an unprecedented third leadership term in 2022.
The resolution, passed at the end of the four-day annual plenary session of top Chinese Communist Party leaders, was about the party's “achievements and historical experiences” since it was founded 100 years ago. Such a resolution was passed only twice before in 1945 and 1981.
It puts Xi on par with Mao Zedong, the founding leader of the People's Republic of China and Deng Xiaoping, often called the ‘Architect of Modern China’ for his massive market-economic reforms. In 2018, the same party committee had enshrined the “Xi Jinping Thought” into the country's constitution similar to the “Mao Zedong Thought” and “Deng Xiaoping Theory”.
The same year, the National People’s Congress – the most powerful legislative body in China – had removed the two-term limit on the presidency, effectively allowing Xi to remain in power for life (as long as some formalities are completed). Xi’s second term is supposed to end in 2023.
EU’s Taiwanese shift
Some Members of the European Parliament visited Taiwan in official capacity last week to discuss the island nation’s experience in fighting disinformation and foreign interference in its democracy, media and education.
Why this matters: Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it was the first official delegation sent by the European Parliament to Taiwan ever. What’s more important is the timing. The visit came just before the Chinese Communist Party held its key annual plenary session in Beijing (mentioned above), amid heightened tensions between China and Taiwan and at a time of growing distrust in the West about China.
Last month, the European Parliament had called for closer relations with Taiwan guided by the EU’s ‘One China Policy’. Members had previously pushed for an EU-Taiwan bilateral investment agreement and highlighted the importance of trade and economic relations with Taipei.
China has for long claimed Taiwan – a democratically-governed island – as its own territory. Beijing says Taiwan is just a “breakaway” province that will eventually be reunified with the country. However, Taiwan stresses that it’s a sovereign nation.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had earlier warned that countries looking to develop closer ties with Taiwan would “pay a price”.
Summit of Democracy
US President Joe Biden will host the first of the two ‘Summit of Democracy’ on December 9-10. It’ll bring together leaders from government, civil society and the private sector to chart out an “affirmative agenda for democratic renewal” and to counter the “greatest threats” faced by democracies through collective action.
Invites seem to be flying out of the White House. Politico has put out a tentative list of “countries and/or governments” that are being invited. There are some surprises and some risks.
Hungary, despite being an EU member, is not being invited. Pakistan will get a seat, but NATO member Turkey won’t. The big surprise is the possibility of Taiwan being invited because this will surely anger China.
Interesting stuff
The Biden administration's orders to the US Marines carrying out the evacuation operation in Afghanistan were clear: anyone in the crowd outside the Kabul airport with one of four documents — an American passport, green card, special immigrant visa, yellow badge issued by the American Embassy — or who fit a vague exception of “vulnerable Afghans” could be let in.
But this was easier said than done in the hellish chaos that ensued. This story by The New York Times’ Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper shows how the Marines were, in effect, left to determine who was evacuated from Afghanistan and who was left behind.
The Battle for Taiwan: This one’s a bit long but totally worth taking a look at. Reuters has spoken to military experts to project various scenarios of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan and how the conflict could play out (includes maps).
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Guam, an unincorporated territory of the United States. The US started testing the Israeli ‘Iron Dome’ missile-defence system on the island this week. The island in the Pacific Ocean is within the range of Chinese and North Korean missiles. US military planners are concerned about possible Chinese attacks on Guam which houses defence bases. There were similar concerns in 2017 when North Korea reportedly considered carrying out missile strikes there.
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