The week everything changed
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its impact on Europe's security architecture
Hello! I hope you’re doing well. Our focus this week is on the Russian invasion of Ukraine (obviously). I’m trying to provide an overview of how Russia’s recent actions have shaken the European security architecture, based on the way we have seen the conflict unfold so far and the West’s response to it.
Wars are despicable and it’s sad to see such a premeditated act of aggression in the 21st century.
Everything in this newsletter edition is as of 13:00 GMT on February 25.
This day that year
1956: Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev delivered his landmark “On the Cult of Personality and Its Consequences” speech to a closed session of party delegates in which he denounced former Soviet leader Joseph Stalin.
1986: Ferdinand Marcos, president of the Philippines, fled the country after 20 years of dictatorial rule. Corazon Aquino, wife of assassinated former president Benigno Aquino Jr., took over as the nation’s first woman president.
The week everything changed
It happened. In the early hours of February 24, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed his nation and, in what was a de facto declaration of war, announced the start of what he called a “special military operation” into Ukraine. For the rest of the world, it clearly meant an “invasion”.
I won’t get into the details of how things unfolded (pretty quickly, actually) this week. You would have already read enough about it. Through the week, Untwined’s Twitter handle was tracking key developments. Updates thread from February 21-23 can be accessed here. Thread from February 24 — the day when the full-scale invasion started — can be accessed here. You can also take a look at two Untwined editions from November 26, 2021 and January 21 which primarily talk about the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Here’s the full English transcript of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address to his nation just before the Russian invasion began (by Al Jazeera). And, here’s the full English transcript of Russian President Putin’s declaration of war speech (by The Sydney Morning Herald).
In his address to the nation on February 21 (when recognising Ukraine’s separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk), Putin essentially questioned Ukraine’s existence and tried to bend the country’s complex history to help justify the problems in eastern Europe and Russia’s actions. His speech was similar to an article he had written in July 2021 calling Russia and Ukraine “essentially the same historical and spiritual space”. We should’ve seen the invasion coming, maybe?
Read: Vladimir Putin's address fact-checked by the BBC
This timeline by the Council on Foreign Relations charts Ukraine’s struggles of being an independent nation — in Russia’s shadow — since 1991.
Impact
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that the military alliance has no plans to send its troops in Ukraine, but more personnel will be deployed “in the eastern part of the alliance on NATO territory”. No NATO member nation has been attacked. But Stoltenberg had admitted days earlier that “this is the most dangerous moment for European security in a generation”.
The US and the UK are known to be assisting the Ukrainian military in some capacity such as intelligence sharing. Flightradar24 data shows that NATO drones and reconnaissance aircraft patrolled Ukrainian skies before the invasion and were over Poland and Romania after the invasion started.
Canada, the US and the UK have already imposed fresh sanctions — over and above the ones imposed earlier this week in response to Russia’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk’s independence. The European Union confirmed that it was also preparing new sanctions. G7 nations (Group of Seven), together accounting for over half of the world’s net wealth, are widely expected to stick by these sanctions.
Germany, which had so far seemed reluctant to add the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project to the potential sanctions list, has halted the certification process of the Russian mega project. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz assessed that Putin is trying to wipe Ukraine off the map. “We are witnessing the beginning of a war the likes of which we have not seen in Europe for more than 75 years,” Scholz said. “This is an attempt to forcibly shift borders within Europe, perhaps even to wipe an entire country off the world map.”
More sanctions, including the possible expulsion of Russia from the SWIFT financial transactions system, are being explored. So, it’s too early to say if the sanctions will bite and push Moscow to stop the invasion before its objectives are achieved.
These are all the West’s efforts to turn Putin — and his regime — into an “international pariah”. Whether Putin is moved by such sanctions which have been imposed to some extent beginning with the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, is a different question altogether.
‘No to war’
The scenes in Russia are very different to what was generally a positive response to the annexation of Crimea in 2014. There have been some clear signs of resistance to this invasion among Russians — despite massive propaganda by state media in favour of the “military operation”. Thousands were out on the streets to protest, defying fears of being prosecuted by a regime known to be intolerant to such demonstrations. Reports suggest that about 1,700 people were detained on February 24 across a dozen Russian cities, including the major hubs of St. Petersburg and Moscow, for participating in the protests. Russian celebrities and public figures were also speaking out on social media against the invasion. That’s rare. Speculation is risky but the oligarchs who are getting hit by western sanctions may also express their displeasure, perhaps subtly, at some point. At least, that’s the expectation in the West.
Where does this stop?
Conflicts are unpredictable. Even a week ago, Russia was saying it won’t invade Ukraine. But it did. So, when Putin says that the Russian military doesn’t intend to “occupy” Ukraine, it’s hard to believe.
Yet, there seems to be consensus among observers that the Russian military will seize control of all major Ukrainian cities, including capital Kyiv. It will “decapitate” the Zelenskyy government and install “own method of governance” in Ukraine, Reuters quoted an unnamed US defence official as saying. Will Ukrainians accept such an appointed leadership, and for how long, is a different question? This does sound like a recipe for a state — and in turn the region — remaining unstable for decades.
It’s also possible that taking of Kyiv could involve a longer siege as urban combat there may prove to be a challenge for the Russian military. As of 13:00 GMT on February 25, Russian troops had reached downtown Kyiv in some numbers but the Ukrainian government had shown no signs of capitulation.
The invasion has indeed brought chaos to the European Union’s doorstep for the first time in over two decades. It has shaken Europe’s security architecture. The impact will be felt for a long time. Russia’s blatant willingness to use force to create/maintain its sphere of influence has made the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — all former Soviet bloc countries and now NATO members — nervous. “The battle for Ukraine is a battle for Europe. If Putin is not stopped there, he will go further,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said last week during a joint news conference with US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Read — Ukraine attack leaves Baltics wondering: Are we next?
The Baltic states, Poland and Romania have triggered NATO security consultations under Article 4. Europe, NATO and Russia are now at a higher risk of direct confrontation, especially due to increased chances of miscalculation.
Finland, which also borders Russia, has been already weighing the option of joining NATO. While Helsinki doesn’t believe it’s facing an immediate Russian threat, Finish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said that “the debate on NATO membership in Finland will change” following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Moldova, which has its own Russian-backed secessionist region of Transnistria, is also under pressure. Moldova and Ukraine were actually planning to initiate an electricity supply isolation test on February 24 (which happened to be the day of the invasion), during which the two countries were to together disconnect from all foreign energy sources (including those from Belarus and Russia). The idea was to rely on domestically-produced electricity and demonstrate energy independence without outages. If successful, it would have been a major step towards connecting to the European energy grid next year.
For all these countries, a theoretical Russian threat just became very real.
Putin’s quest to secure Russia’s sphere of influence, took a major turn this week and changed everything for European security and perhaps for the world.
Grim reality of warfare: Russia has deployed mobile crematoriums to follow its troops into battle. The Telegraph quoted the UK’s defence secretary as suggesting that the vehicle-mounted incinerators could be used to hide evidence of battlefield casualties.
This dynamic territorial control map by Liveuamap would be helpful in tracking the Russian invasion. I've been using this platform for at least six years now to track various conflicts around the world.
Beware: The fog of war leads to a lot of misinformation getting thrown around.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This image shows an uninhabited river island along a border in Europe. It’s a ‘condominium’, meaning: a territory over which multiple sovereign powers formally share equal rights to it. The island is very small — just about 200 metres long and 40 metres wide. What place is this?
The answer is at the bottom.
Interesting stuff
“Buffeted throughout its history by often turbulent developments in East Asia, Europe and the Middle East, Russia has felt perennially vulnerable and has often displayed a kind of defensive aggressiveness. Whatever the original causes behind early Russian expansionism — much of which was unplanned — many in the country’s political class came to believe over time that only further expansion could secure the earlier acquisitions.” This stunning 2016 article in Foreign Affairs by Stephen Kotkin, American historian and professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, charts why Russia behaves the way it does in the geopolitical sphere. Much of it remains relevant today. Read the full article here.
In Untwined’s February 4 edition, we looked at how Germany’s historical guilt (especially in its political class) associated with the Second World War is stopping it from helping Ukraine and hampering NATO’s unity against Russia. This video by the Caspian Report posted on February 19 says just that. Watch the video here: Why Germany won't help Ukraine.
“If [New Delhi] criticises Moscow, India will alienate an important historical friend and, worse, drive Russia closer to China, which India considers its biggest foreign threat. If it backs Moscow, New Delhi will tank its relationship with the United States, a newer but highly valuable strategic partner. If it says nothing, India could antagonise both countries, which may then view it as a fickle and unreliable partner.” Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, argues in this article for Foreign Affairs that India should use its unique position in the international arena to not only secure its geopolitical interests, but also to prevent a destabilising conflict. Read the article here. (Written before the invasion)
“The Crown does more than it seems”. Queen Elizabeth II has tested positive for COVID-19, Buckingham Palace announced on February 20. While she is said to be experiencing “mild cold-like symptoms,” the monarch is continuing some duties at her Windsor residence, the palace said. Anne Twomey, Professor of Constitutional Law at Australia’s University of Sydney, had written for Chatham House earlier this month about the soft power exerted by the Queen and the British monarchy in foreign affairs. Read the piece here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Pheasant Island is located between France and Spain on the Bidasoa River. From February 1 to July 31 every year, the island is administered by Spain, and from August 1 to January 31 by France. The border switches to the north and south of the island accordingly.
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