Singapore’s politics and future
Plus, Russian president apologises for his foreign minister’s comments
Hello! I hope you had a productive week. This week, we’re exploring the future of Singapore’s dominant People’s Action Party. We’re also looking at why Russian President Vladimir Putin has supposedly apologised for his foreign minister’s comments, the important elections in the United Kingdom and the European Union’s proposed ban on Russian fuel imports. Let’s get started.
This day that year
2004: The final episode of the television series Friends, a situational comedy, aired on American television. It remains one of the most popular television shows of all time.
1994: UK’s Queen Elizabeth II and French President François Mitterrand opened the Channel Tunnel connecting England and France from underneath the English Channel. It’s the only fixed link between the European mainland and the isle of Great Britain.
Singapore’s politics and future
Singapore is unique. It’s a city, but more than a city. It’s a country, but not like most others. It’s thriving. We hear a lot about its history, economy, culture, certain strict laws and even its cuisine. But what most of us don’t usually hear about is its political system. The city-state’s political and governance system is structurally identical to most Commonwealth nations. They have a titular president, an executive prime minister who leads a government that is elected directly by the people every five years. But that doesn’t tell us the entire story.
It’s been 57 years since Singapore was expelled from the Malaysian federation. And despite it being a democracy, only one party has held power in the island nation: People’s Action Party (PAP). So, it’s easy to understand why prime ministers have always had long tenures in office. In fact, Singapore has had only three so far. Lee Kuan Yew, widely considered Singapore’s founding father, served as the prime minister for 31 years. In 1990, he was succeeded by Goh Chok Tong who held the position for 13 years. Lee Hsien Loong, the incumbent prime minister and also Lee Kuan Yew’s son, has already been in the position for 17 years. These are, as they see it, three generations of Singapore’s political leadership. In the first four general elections, the PAP won all seats. There was no opposition in parliament. In all of the subsequent elections, the PAP won a supermajority. In no election has the party’s vote share fallen below 60 percent. How is this possible? Singapore doesn’t really fare well when the quality of its democracy is tested. The Economist’s 2021 Democracy Index has categorised Singapore as a “flawed democracy” ranking it 66th — just behind Lesotho and Guyana and just above Sri Lanka. Critics point out that while the elections in Singapore are free, they aren’t fair. They also suggest that the opposition is fractured and systematically suppressed. The city-state ranks 137th on the media freedom index — just behind Zimbabwe and just ahead of Somalia. The news media landscape is dominated by two companies – both either controlled by the government or linked to individuals associated with the ruling party.
This video by PolyMatter explains things better:
But there’s a twist. Many see voters’ appetite for a non-PAP government is increasing, or the PAP’s uninterrupted political dominance is beginning to fade. In fact, despite winning 83 of the 93 seats in parliament in the 2020 general election, it was seen as PAP’s worst electoral performance. The opposition Workers’ Party made significant inroads. Pritam Singh of the Workers’ Party became the country’s first de jure Leader of Opposition. The PAP leadership has recognised these challenges and the need for change.
PM Lee Hsien Loong has said he will step aside soon and will not be PAP’s prime ministerial candidate in the next general election. Deputy PM Heng Swee Keat, who was earlier seen as the heir apparent, said he would be too old to take over as the prime minister by the time the pandemic ends.
The future: In April, the PAP elected current Finance Minister Lawrence Wong as the leader of the ‘Fourth Generation’, or ‘4G’, leadership team. This means, Wong is now being publicly positioned to become the next prime minister. All this is geared to ensure that there’s a smooth transition of power from the third to the fourth generation of leadership within the party.
Who is Wong? The 49-year-old does not come from a political family. Wong’s father was a sales executive and his mother was a primary school teacher. Though he is the incumbent finance minister and had previously served as the country’s minister for culture, community and youth, national development and education. More recently, he co-chaired Singapore’s multi-ministerial committee on COVID-19 pandemic response.
He has tried to position himself as being closer to the younger generation. Unlike older Singaporean leaders, Wong is active on social media, particularly Instagram. What is striking is that many of his posts are apolitical — sometimes about hiking or eating at hawker centres.
Unless the PAP loses the next general election (which hasn’t actually happened yet and it’s still a long road ahead for the opposition), Wong is set to become the city-state’s next prime minister. Understanding Wong is important as he’s expected to hold Singapore’s reigns for a while – like all of the city-state’s prime ministers so far. Yet, Wong is cautious. “We do not assume that the PAP will win the next general election,” Bloomberg quoted Wong as saying at a news briefing. “Every [general election] from now on will be about which party will form the government — not just how many seats the opposition wins, or what percentage of the votes the ruling party gets.”
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This satellite image shows a national capital. In fact, it’s the world’s northernmost capital. It’s believed to have been inhabited since at least 874 AD, but the city was founded in 1786. What place is this?
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
UK’s big local elections
Counting of votes has begun for the local elections in Scotland, Wales and parts of England, as well as for the assembly election in Northern Ireland. The results of these elections are significant for multiple reasons. it’s being seen as an unofficial referendum on UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s leadership of his Conservative Party and the government in the aftermath of the partygate scandal. If the Tories lose a significant number of seats in the local polls, members of parliament from Johnson’s party may feel compelled to oust him (with an eye on the next general election).
Meanwhile, Sinn Fenn is hoping to become the first Irish nationalist party to win most seats in an assembly (Stormont) election in Northern Ireland. Associated with the Irish Republican Army (IRA) during the conflict in Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein wants Belfast to leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland. This comes amid a major cost of living crisis and at a time when the UK and particularly Northern Ireland is dealing with post-Brexit problems. If Sinn Fein form the government, it would be a historic shift in the region’s politics. But under Northern Ireland’s unique power-sharing mechanism, created as part of the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement, the first minister and the deputy first minister’s roles need to be taken up by individuals from the largest unionist party and the biggest nationalist party. So, even if Sinn Fenn are in a position to form the government, they would still need the support of a unionist party (like the Democratic Unionist Party). The DUP has said it may not join Sinn Fenn in doing so.
Putin apologised for his foreign minister’s comments, Israel PM says
Russian President Putin has apologised after his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Nazi Germany’s leader Adolf Hitler had “Jewish blood”, Israel said. Putin made the apology in a call with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the Israeli prime minister’s office said in a statement. Israel had demanded the apology. The Russian version of the two leaders’ conversation did not mention Putin’s apology, though it did say that Putin and Bennett discussed the Holocaust.
Lavrov had made the comment while trying to justify his country’s portrayal of Ukrainian leadership as “Nazi” despite the fact that its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish. “I could be wrong, but Hitler also had Jewish blood. [Zelenskyy being Jewish] means absolutely nothing. Wise Jewish people say that the most ardent anti-Semites are usually Jews,” Lavrov had said when asked by an Italian television channel how Moscow was claiming that it was fighting to “de-Nazify” Ukraine when Zelenskyy is himself Jewish. Lavrov’s comment had sparked outrage in Israel.
PM Rajapaksa likely to face no-confidence vote
The pressure continues to build against the Rajapaksas. Sri Lanka’s main opposition party is issuing a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government. A group of lawmakers led by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa reportedly delivered the motion demanding a no-confidence vote to Parliament Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena. A date for the vote hasn’t been decided yet. The opposition is blaming the Rajapaksa government for dragging the island nation into its worst economic crisis.
The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party of the Rajapaksas is believed to have lost support of many of its own lawmakers, and may have potentially lost majority in parliament (can only be tested on the floor of the House). Premadasa’s own United People’s Force party doesn’t have enough lawmakers in parliament to win the vote, but he’s counting on support from smaller parties.
EU proposes ban on Russian fuel imports
The EU has proposed a total ban on Russian oil imports, in an attempt to add more pressure on the Kremlin amid the war in Ukraine. Under the plan, Russian crude oil would be phased out by EU members by the end of this year. Even though European nations had started looking for other nations to purchase fuels, they remain highly dependent on Russian energy supplies. The ban could be catastrophic for the Russian economy in the long run, but it will also pinch European consumers who will face fuel shortages and price hikes.
While many EU member states are supporting the proposed ban, it’s unclear what stand members such as Hungary will take.
According to a report by the Centre of Research on Energy and Clean Air, Russia exported $66 billion worth of fossil fuels in the first two months since its invasion of Ukraine started. The EU accounted for 71 percent of those sales. Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and France remain some of Russia’s largest fossil fuel customers.
Members of the EU may also face Russian retaliation over this decision. They did see a preview recently when Russia suspended its gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland after the two countries rejected making payments for supplies in Russian Rubles.
Interesting stuff
In mid-March we had discussed how the Russian invasion of Ukraine had fastened the ‘de-Finlandisation’ of Finland and that Helsinki was looking to join NATO. This week, Kimberly Marten has written in Foreign Affairs about what Finland joining NATO would mean for the region’s security situation and if Moscow will try to disrupt the process. “There will likely be a gap of many months between Finland’s membership application and its official welcome into NATO. During that time, Finland would not yet be covered by NATO’s Article 5 collective defence guarantee, and Russia might be tempted to threaten or attack Finland, hoping that Finnish public opinion would once again turn against joining the alliance and short-circuit the membership process,” Marten writes. Read the full piece here.
“[Putin] knows that extraordinary retaliation and universal opprobrium would follow, with no remotely comparable strategic upsides to justify them—not to mention the fact that the radioactive fallout from such use might easily blow back onto Russia itself.” Gideon Rose wrote in Foreign Affairs in late April on why the war in Ukraine won’t go nuclear. Read the piece here.
“Not long ago, many people would have been alarmed at such a turn of events, not least in Germany and Japan, still haunted by bitter memories of their bellicose past.” Ian Buruma writes in Bloomberg on why Germany and Japan are ready to fight again. Read the full opinion piece here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Reykjavík, Iceland. It’s one of the cleanest and safest cities in the world.
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