Hello! I hope you had a great week. In this edition, we’re exploring the fears and concerns the Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked in a different part of the planet: Taiwan.
And then, besides key updates from the Russia-Ukraine War, we’re also looking at South Korea’s next self-proclaimed ‘anti-feminist’ president, UN human rights chief’s upcoming visit to China’s Xinjiang, pausing of Iran nuclear deal talks and India accidentally firing a missile at Pakistan.
Let’s get started.
This day that year
2011: An undersea earthquake of around nine in magnitude, the most powerful ever recorded in Japan, triggered tsunami waves that reached heights of up to 40.5 meters. More than 19,740 people died, over 6,240 were injured and over 2,550 people went missing. The tsunami caused the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.
2004: More than 190 people were killed and about 2,050 people were injured in a series of coordinated and nearly simultaneous bombings on the commuter train system in Spanish capital Madrid.
‘Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow’
Days after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, United States President Joe Biden hurriedly sent a special high-level delegation of former officials headed by ex-chair of the joint chiefs of staff to Taiwan. It was Washington DC’s way of sending a message of continued support to Taipei and to warn Beijing against any action across the Taiwan Strait.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked fears and concerns in Taiwan – a nation of 23.5 million people — that China may also invade it. The slogan “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” has been trending on social media there, even as the government has played down those fears – perhaps to stop citizens from panicking.
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said her government will continue to monitor the situation and “respond as appropriate, while strengthening our defences against cognitive warfare and disinformation operations”.
Ukraine’s cause has obviously found a lot of support in Taiwan. On February 26, many sites in Taiwan including Taipei 101 — formerly the world’s tallest building — were illuminated in Ukraine’s flag colours. “Despite great adversity, the government and people of Ukraine have been fighting with tremendous courage and determination,” Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu said. “Let me say this from the bottom of my heart: You have been an inspiration to the Taiwanese people in facing threats and coercion from authoritarian power.”
China has for long claimed Taiwan — a democratically-governed island — as its own territory. Beijing says Taiwan is just a “breakaway” province that will eventually be reunified with the country. However, Taiwan stresses that it’s a sovereign nation. People of Taiwan overwhelmingly support remaining independent, according to opinion polls. Tensions between Beijing and Taipei have been simmering over the last two more than ever before as Chinese air force jets have been increasingly transgressing the Taiwanese airspace.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has said in the past that his country’s “reunification” with Taiwan “must be fulfilled”. “We make no promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option of taking all necessary means,” Xi once said and warned that “no external interference” would be allowed in what he described as an internal issue.
Taiwan’s government has never formally declared independence even though the country functions like a fully independent country. But a conflict would most likely be triggered if Taiwan does declare itself as officially independent. Article 8 of China’s Anti-Secession Law is specifically dedicated to Taiwan. It says that if Taiwan declares independence or if “possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted”, China would use “non-peaceful means and other necessary measures” to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Taiwan’s president has urged China to shed its denial of the island nation’s de facto independence.
China is taking notes on how the world has reacted to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prompt reaction and sanctions by the West against Russia are likely to be factored by China in its plans to retake Taiwan, the Financial Times quoted American intelligence chiefs as saying. But CIA Director Bill Burns has warned that it’s important not to assume that Xi had less resolve for an invasion of Taiwan after looking at the West’s actions in recent weeks.
Taiwan’s military strategists are also analysing the events in eastern Europe and drawing lessons particularly from Ukraine’s resistance. “From Ukraine’s performance we can be even more confident in our own,” Ma Cheng-Kun, a government advisor on China policy, told Reuters.
Though there has been no unusual activity by the Chinese military in recent weeks, Taiwan has raised its alert level.
It’s different
Just like Ukraine is facing a militarily superior neighbour, Taiwan’s military is also dwarfed by that of China. So, the situation in Ukraine and what could potentially unfold in Taiwan may seem similar, but they’re different.
Russia’s stated objective in Ukraine is to “demilitarise” and “denazify” Ukraine. That would mean overthrowing the Zelenskyy government and establishing a puppet regime. The Kremlin, as it seems, hopes that its military won’t get tied-down in Ukraine for too long. As Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to learn: occupying any territory, where the local population doesn’t support you, for a prolonged period of time is difficult. The Russian invasion was also comparatively easier because its military had to just run in from the north, the east and parts of the south (Crimea), and blockade major ports like Odessa.
But in the case of Taiwan, China would have to conduct an amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait. The ‘stopping power of the sea’ makes invasions tougher. The Taiwan Strait acts as a natural barrier — something that doesn’t really exist between Russia and Ukraine. And China’s publicly stated aim is to “reunify” Taiwan with the People’s Republic. Wouldn’t that require China to use a large occupying force? How feasible will that be, considering that an overwhelming majority of Taiwanese would likely resist the invasion – just as Ukrainians are? And is China willing to risk and prepared to face international sanctions like those being imposed in Russia?
And unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has lived under the shadow of China for too long. The government of Taiwan, or officially the Republic of China, had fled to the Taiwan island in 1949 as Mao Zedong’s communist forces advanced and took over mainland China. So, the country’s military has planned and worked towards building asymmetric warfare capabilities for a long time. The country also conducts annual Wan An drill (civilians have a role to play), which simulates an aerial attack by Chinese forces. So, the country is perhaps better prepared.
America’s ‘strategic ambiguity’
Washington DC practices “strategic ambiguity” on the matter. Meaning, it doesn’t give a clear answer to how it plans to react if China invades Taiwan. The objective is to keep Beijing guessing. There’s no guarantee that the US would intervene militarily to help defend Taiwan — or merely support by supplying weapons. In fact, under its Taiwan Relations Act, the US is required to help Taiwan with weapons. It has been doing so for decades.
Last year, Biden was asked if the US would come to Taiwan’s defence in such a situation. “Yes, we have a commitment to do that,” Biden replied. But a White House spokesperson quickly sought to clarify that the US was “not announcing any change in our policy and there is no change in our policy”.
So, if you are in Taipei, you would probably wonder if the US will actually help defend your country in the event of a Chinese attack. As we have seen in the case of Ukraine, the West doesn’t want to get involved — even with a no-fly zone (see last week’s edition for more on that debate) – to avoid escalating the conflict. Biden has been clear that direct confrontation between the US or NATO with Russia would trigger the Third World War. So, it’s not difficult to guess the West’s reactions in the case of Taiwan – and feel concerned.
Updates: Russian invasion of Ukraine
NATO membership negotiable: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he’s no longer pushing for Ukraine to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Ukraine seeking membership of the military alliance is one of Russia’s stated reasons for the invasion. I wonder if this is to give Putin an off-ramp. And if yes, will he take it?
Evacuations continue: Amid confusion over a ceasefire for humanitarian purposes, people continue to be evacuated out of Ukrainian cities — especially Sumy. Russia has been accused of shelling the evacuation route out of the besieged city of Mariupol and the United Nations’ refugee agency has said that more than two million people have escaped Ukraine so far.
Kyiv stands: About 16 days into the invasion, the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv hasn’t fallen to the Russian forces yet. Zelenskyy is believed to be still in the city. In fact, he returned to his office space a couple of days ago — the first time since the invasion started.
Antalya talks collapse: Face-to-face negotiations between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine, the first high-level talks between the two sides since the war began, collapsed on March 10. The talks were mediated by Turkey in Antalya. Ukraine’s foreign minister said that they discussed a ceasefire and creation of a humanitarian corridor, but that they couldn’t reach an agreement. The Russian foreign minister, besides repeating the Kremlin's narrative, said he didn’t believe the ongoing situation would lead to a nuclear conflict with the West. Representatives from Russia and Ukraine have been holding multiple rounds of separate talks — with little progress.
Poland’s MiG-29 offer rejected: The US has rejected Poland’s plan to send its Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. Ukraine had requested the West to help procure MiG-29 fighters that Ukrainian air force pilots are trained to fly. Poland said it was willing to immediately dispatch all their MiG-29s (after stripping them of NATO-specific technology and repainting them) to a US base in Germany from where they would be delivered to Ukraine. In return, they hoped the US would send Poland an equal number of used F-16 fighter jets. The US has rejected this arrangement, calling it untenable. The US believes there would be logistical challenges in delivering these fighter jets to Ukraine. “The prospect of fighter jets ‘at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America’ departing from a US/NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” US’ Department of Defence said.
More sanctions and more western companies leave Russia: More sanctions have been enforced over the last week. The most significant measure of them all was the US banning all imports of Russian oil and gas. The UK said it’ll phase out Russian energy imports by the end of this year. The European Union said it intends to stop using Russian oil and gas “well before 2030”. Meanwhile, about 300 western companies, including Alphabet (Google’s parent firm), Amazon, Coca-Cola, Ikea, Kraft Heinz, Meta (Facebook’s parent firm), McDonald’s, Pepsi, Shell and Starbucks, have either curtailed or shut operations in Russia in recent days. Now, Putin has hinted at a possibility of nationalising their assets in Russia to preserve jobs.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This satellite image shows national capitals of two countries – situated on either side of a river. The border runs in the centre of the river (for the most part in the area). The river and the two countries share their name (kind of). They are connected by the shortest flight between two national capitals. Which cities are these?
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
UN’s human rights chief to visit Xinjiang
UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, will visit China and its Xinjiang province, where activists say around a million Uyghurs have been held in mass detention camps, in May.
This would be the first such visit by a UN human rights chief to China since 2005. China has rejected allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Beijing has described the detention camps as vocational centres meant to stop extremism. In December 2019, China claimed all people in these camps had “graduated” and were living happy lives.
In December 2021, an unofficial tribunal in the United Kingdom had concluded that Xinjiang’s Uyghur people, a largely Muslim ethnic community, have been subjected to crimes against humanity by the Chinese government, amounting to a genocide.
For more than three years, the UN human rights agency has been collecting evidence for a report on the alleged abuses. Activists have called on Bachelet to promptly release this report.
Many western nations had staged a diplomatic boycott of the recent Winter Olympics hosted by China in Beijing citing the country’s record of human rights abuses including in the case of Xinjiang.
South Korea’s next president
Yoon Suk-yeol, the main opposition candidate, won the South Korean presidential election on March 9. He belongs to the conservative People Power Party (PPP) and will replace Moon Jae-in in May.
Moon is currently serving his second and final term as the president. The South Korean Constitution doesn’t allow a third term. Lee Jae-myung, the candidate from Moon’s ruling party, has conceded defeat and congratulated Yoon.
Yoon served as the country’s prosecutor general between 2019 and 2021 and had played a role in convicting former president Park Geun-hye for abuse of power. Perhaps hoping to get support of the Idaenam (a term used to refer to men in their 20s having a negative outlook towards feminism) in the election, Yoon had publicly called himself an “anti-feminist” and promised to shutter the gender equality ministry. The 61-year-old has claimed that women don’t face systemic discrimination in South Korea. There’s evidence that Yoon’s claims aren’t true.
Iran nuclear deal talks paused
Negotiations over the revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal were “paused” due to “external factors” on March 11. Josep Borrell Fontelles, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs and security, said the agreement's final text is “essentially ready and on the table”, adding that he’ll continue to work with Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action participants and the US to “overcome the current situation” and seal the deal. Fontelles didn’t elaborate on what the “external factors” were.
India accidentally fires missile at Pakistan
India’s defence ministry said on March 11 that a “technical malfunction” during routine maintenance had led to accidental firing of a missile towards Pakistan days earlier.
The ministry said the incident was “deeply regrettable” and expressed relief that there had been no loss of life due to the accident, after the missile landed in Pakistan. A high-level Court of Enquiry has been ordered into the incident, the ministry said in a statement.
Prior to the Indian defence ministry’s clarification, Pakistan had summoned India’s Charge d’Affaires in Islamabad to register protest over the incident, calling it a violation of its airspace by an Indian “super-sonic flying object”. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi alleged that the projectile had endangered innocent lives as commercial flights could have been hit.
Interesting stuff
“It won’t be Mikhail Gorbachev’s name written on the death certificate of the Russian empire: it will be Putin’s.” Historian and author Yuval Noah Harari argued in this late-February opinion piece for The Guardian that it’s becoming clearer with each passing day that Putin’s gamble is failing, and by spilling Ukrainian blood, he has made sure his dream of re-establishing the Russian empire will never be realised. Read the full opinion piece here.
“The thing about repressive regimes ... is that they often look stable right up to the point that they are not.” Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz explored in Foreign Affairs last week if Putin’s regime was heading for a collapse as a result of military actions he has initiated in Ukraine. Read the full article here.
“Where do we go from the submarine?” On a related note, Andrei Kolesnikov asked in Foreign Affairs last week if Putin will lose control of Russia amid growing dissent at home and mounting sanctions. Read the full piece here.
In this report in The New Statesman, Emily Tamkin explains India’s diplomatic dilemma — rather, a balancing act — over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Brazzaville, Congo is situated on the northern bank of the Congo River. Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is situated on the southern bank.
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