The pilot edition
The Taliban is close to forming its new Cabinet in Afghanistan as the United States withdraws after 20 years. We have some sketchy details of what the new governance structure may look like
Hello! In this edition of the weekly Untwined newsletter, we’ll take a look at the Taliban’s plan for a new administrative system in Afghanistan.
Plus, we’ll discuss Taiwan’s COVID-19 vaccination gamble and what may have pushed the island nation into taking it.
This day that year
2005: Hurricane Katrina moved north in the Gulf of Mexico and made landfall along the United States’ southern coast, leaving behind a trail of destruction – especially in the region’s commercial hub of New Orleans. Due to flaws in the flood protection system, the Category 5 Atlantic hurricane (same as a ‘cyclone’ in South Asia and a ‘typhoon’ in East Asia) caused catastrophic flooding in Louisiana’s capital city and surrounding areas. More than 1,800 people died. Nominal damages were pegged at $125 billion.
As you read this, Hurricane Ida is making landfall in Louisiana. It is a Category 4 tropical storm. Governor John Bel Edwards told a press conference that Ida is likely to become “one of the strongest hurricanes to hit anywhere in Louisiana since at least the 1850s”.
1842: China was forced to sign the Treaty of Nanjing, as part of which Hong Kong was ceded to Great Britain.
Taliban close to Cabinet formation
With full withdrawal of American troops just days away, the Taliban is close to finalising its Cabinet. The organisation’s supreme commander Hibatullah Akhundzada is holding talks with other leaders, different ethnic groups, political parties, “known faces” and former Mujahideen leaders on the new system of governance, as they seek acceptance from those inside as well as outside the country.
Taliban spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid told Voice of America that the Cabinet could have more than 26 members and a final nod will come from Akhundzada himself. The new Cabinet is expected to have members from Rahbari Shura, the most important decision-making body for the organisation.
“The shura (leadership council) has in principle decided that if the United States and other invaders complete their withdrawal by August 31, the Islamic Emirate (Taliban’s name for their government) will announce the Cabinet,” Mujahid told VoA. “The Amir ul-Momineen (Akhundzada) is of the opinion that if a government is announced in the presence of the American forces, it will raise many questions.”
The Taliban has claimed that the new dispensation will be inclusive, but there is no clarity on whether it would include women and representation from ethnic groups.
Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is being seen as the frontrunner to become the president. Sirajuddin Haqqani, the deputy leader of the Taliban, or Mullah Yaqoob, the eldest son of Mohammed Omar (founder of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in 1996), could be made the ‘Raees ul Wazara’. That’s similar to a prime minister.
If Haqqani becomes the prime minister, Yaqoob could be the defence minister.
Decisions on the national flag and the constitution are likely to be taken by the new Cabinet. The national army would remain intact and the Taliban’s own members would get added to these institutions, reports suggest.
Many veteran leaders have already been appointed to run important institutions such as the ministries of public health and education, and the central bank.
On August 28, hundreds of Afghans in capital Kabul were reportedly protesting against banks largely remaining closed over the last two weeks – leaving millions of people out of cash. In a statement, the Taliban said that banks were ordered to reopen with a weekly limit on withdrawals of 20,000 afghanis (about $230).
Taiwan’s contested vaccine rollout
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was administered with her country’s first domestically-developed COVID-19 vaccine on August 23. The island nation has rolled out the Medigen vaccine, which was approved by the domestic regulator last month for emergency use. It was developed by Taiwan’s Medigen Vaccine Biologics Corporation.
But critics say the approval and the rollout has been rushed. The two-dose vaccine is yet to conclude clinical trials and no efficacy data is available. Citing these concerns over the vaccine’s safety, politicians from Taiwan’s main opposition party had even moved a local court seeking to suspend the emergency authorisation. But the court dismissed their plea.
At least four persons who received the vaccine have died, according to the country’s Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC). One of them died due to an aortic dissection combined with cardiac tamponade, CECC spokesperson Jen-Hsiang Chuang said citing an autopsy report. Chuang added that the three other fatalities had not been autopsied so far, as the government awaited permission from their relatives.
These fatalities have been used by state-controlled news media in mainland China to take jibes at Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Health Minister and CECC chief Chen Shih-chung said that the authorities would have to wait for the final autopsy reports to determine whether the Medigen dose had directly led to the fatalities, as there is currently no indication of a causal relationship.
While rolling out the jab, the Taiwanese government had cited studies to claim that antibodies created by the Medigen vaccine have been “no worse than” those created by AstraZeneca's shot.
Medigen has maintained that the vaccine is effective and well tested. “We have done so many experiments, everyone has seen how safe our vaccine is,” Medigen's Chief Executive Officer Charles Chen told Reuters.
There were similar concerns in India regarding Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin jab when it was first granted a restricted emergency use authorisation even though its final stage clinical trials were still on. In fact, early Covaxin beneficiaries had to sign a consent form while getting the dose as it was administered in clinical trial mode. Just like Tsai now, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had also received the indigenous vaccine dose, perhaps to demonstrate his confidence in the jab’s safety.
Countries such as China and Russia also granted emergency use approvals for their domestically-produced vaccines candidates early. They too were criticised for giving nods despite rigorous clinical testing procedures supposedly not being not following.
Why this may have been necessary: Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, had granted emergency use approvals to vaccines developed by foreign drug makers Janssen (a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson), Moderna, Pfizer–BioNTech and Oxford–AstraZeneca.
But delays in supply of doses left Taiwan and many other countries high and dry. Taipei has also accused Beijing of interfering in its vaccine procurement programme, a charge denied by China.
The island is home to around 23.6 million people and about 42 percent have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccines – either AstraZeneca or Moderna. But less than 4 percent have received both doses.
The Medigen vaccine rollout is being seen as a part of Taiwan’s larger plan to fix this supply problem and ramp up the vaccination drive. The government has placed an initial order of 5 million doses, but has said that people won’t be forced to get it. Plus, the vaccine won’t be exported for now, despite interest from its diplomatic ally Belize.
As of August 29, 2021, the country had reported just under 16,000 COVID-19 cases and 834 related deaths since the pandemic started.
What we’ll track in coming weeks: The United States has reiterated that its massive evacuation operations in Afghanistan will complete by August 31. But officials from the US and its allies have been holding talks with each other and with the Taliban over what happens after that. There’s a possibility of some Americans and outsiders may get left behind in the country now under Taliban’s control.
Thus, the Biden administration was discussing with the Taliban the possibility of an American diplomatic presence in Afghanistan even after August 31, The Wall Street Journal reported. The US military is depending on the Taliban for security around the Kabul airport, where its diplomatic staff is working and where the evacuation flights are operating from.
Taliban is also reportedly waiting for the deadline as they have a deal with the Americans “to do nothing” until then. With Abdul Ghani Baradar – the Taliban’s de facto political leader – already in the country, a formal government formation is likely to follow. Over the next few weeks, we’ll better understand how governments across the world plan to deal with the Taliban.
Plus, we’ll be closely looking at the build-up to the Canadian federal election. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called for a snap parliamentary election, hoping to secure a strong majority for his Liberal party and bag a third consecutive term in office. The election result is likely to shape Canada’s reopening approach in the post-pandemic world. Will Trudeau’s gamble pay off?
Before you go…
If Untwined is a television series, this week’s newsletter is the pilot episode. The newsletter format will be tweaked and upgraded in coming weeks. We’ve just started and there’s a long way to go. But I am hopeful that you’ll help spread the word and share this with others who may be interested in stuff like this. Please feel free to write in feedback. You can also send a quick email to untwinednewsletter@gmail.com.