Merhaba! I hope you’re doing well. This week we’re exploring why Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is blocking Finland and Sweden’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) even though the two Nordic countries’ inclusion will only further strengthen the transatlantic military alliance.
We’re also looking at the crisis in Sri Lanka which has defaulted for the first time and is struggling to pay for essential supplies and fuel, and the worsening COVID-19 situation in secretive North Korea. Let’s get started.
This day that year
2002: East Timor’s independence was officially restored. The country had gained independence from Portuguese rule in 1975, but was annexed by neighbouring Indonesia the following year.
1902: Cuba gained independence from the United States. The country had been handed over to the US after Spain’s loss in the Spanish-American War.
What Erdoğan really wants
Finland and Sweden officially applied to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on May 18 — a major shift in their foreign policy and defence strategy triggered by the fear created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine about three months ago. It also signals, as mentioned earlier, the end of Finland’s Finlandisation — the policy of remaining non-aligned so as to not irk Moscow. Similarly, it also marks a formal shift in the defence positioning of Sweden, which had remained militarily neutral for more than 200 years (though they had mutual defence treaties with some other nations).
The two Nordic nations’ addition to the transatlantic military alliance will have significantly strengthen it on the ground. Currently, Russia shares small borders with NATO nations: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and a very small section with Norway. The length of the border it shares with NATO members would double with Finland’s inclusion. Which means, Moscow will have to deal with the prospect of having more NATO firepower at its doorstep — which is exactly what Russian President Vladimir Putin was, as he claimed, trying to avoid when he invaded Ukraine.
Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO will not only deter aggressive actions by Russia in Scandinavia, but also strengthen European security architecture by boosting the alliance’s presence in the Baltic region. Finnish capital Helsinki and Estonian capital Tallinn are just 80 kilometres apart — separated by the Gulf of Finland. Helsinki and the major Russian port city of Saint Petersburg are about 300 kms away — as the crow flies. With the inclusion of Finland and Sweden, NATO will be able to shutter Russian access to the Baltic Sea in the event of a conflict, and find it much easier to cooperate on intelligence and conduct air patrols in the region. Another concern for Moscow would be that NATO members will now completely surround the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania) and will have an enhanced ability to impose a blockade there.
But it’s not as if NATO will reach this position of enhanced strength overnight. Inclusion of members can take years. NATO has an ‘open door’ policy. Meaning, any country that can commit to contributing to enhancing North Atlantic security can join — as long as they can secure approval from all NATO members (currently 30) and meet the criteria.
First, Finland and Sweden will discuss with NATO if they meet the alliance’s economic, political, military and intelligence criteria and obligations. A roadmap will then be created for the two countries to undertake any reforms, if needed, in order to meet those obligations. All member nations will then have to ratify the new accession protocols to the Washington Treaty. In effect, they are approving the addition of a new member to the alliance. New members can’t join even if one of the 30 members refuses to approve. In some states, the ratification is done by their domestic legislature and thus, the process may take longer. Once these approvals are in place, new members are invited to join the alliance. But that will only happen once their internal legal processes are completed. They will require some more time to fully integrate their militaries into the NATO command.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg had said earlier that in the case of Finland and Sweden, he “[expects the] process to go quickly.” This is because both Finland and Sweden do well on accession parameters such as level of economic liberalisation, democracy, ability to spend more on defence, absence of existing territorial disputes, and other technical aspects such as ease of integrating their defence forces and military hardware with those of NATO. Yet, it’s not difficult to see why it could take many months, if not years, because of the complex process.
Here’s an interesting video by the CaspianReport on why Finland joining NATO is bothering Russia.
Turkish veto
The important step in Finland and Sweden joining the alliance quickly is all NATO members approving their entry. That’s where the problem is. This week, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — the president of Turkey, a NATO member — said his country won’t support Finland and Sweden’s entry into the military alliance, citing the two nations’ history of hosting members of groups his government considers as terrorists. On May 18, Turkey formally blocked a procedural vote on Finland and Sweden’s accession.
“Neither of these countries (Finland and Sweden) have a clear, open attitude towards terrorist organisation,” Erdoğan said. “How can we trust them?”
NATO would become “a place where representatives of terrorist organisations are concentrated” if the Finland and Sweden join, Erdoğan suggested. “So, you won’t give us back terrorists but you ask us for NATO membership? NATO is an entity for security, an organisation for security. Therefore, we cannot say ‘yes’ to this security organisation being deprived of security.”
He further suggested that Finnish and Swedish representatives who will travel to Ankara to try and address Turkish objections shouldn’t bother turning up. “They are coming to Turkey on Monday (May 23). Are they coming to convince us? Excuse me but they should not tire themselves,” Erdoğan said.
Turkey suggests that Finland and Sweden are harbouring individuals, it claims, have links to groups such as the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) that Ankara considers terrorists outfits (also designated a terrorist organisation by the European Union and the US), as well as supporters of Fethullah Gulen, a self-exiled Turkish Islamic scholar, preacher and opinion leader whom the Turkish government has accused of masterminding the attempted coup d’etat of 2016. Gulen, currently living in the US, has denied the allegation. The PKK is a Kurdish nationalist and anti-capitalist militant political group which has historically operated across Kurdistan, a geo-cultural territory spanning modern-day Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Since the 1980s, the PKK has been accused of asymmetric warfare against the Turkish state. While PKK’s ultimate goal is independence of Kurdistan, it has at times diluted its demands down to securing autonomy on the lines of the Iraqi Kurdistan region and more rights for Kurds within Turkey. The sticking point is that Finland and Sweden haven’t approved extradition of 33 people as requested by Turkey.
Erdoğan’s government is also opposing Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO as the two nations had imposed an arms export embargo on Turkey after the latter’s offensive into Syria in 2019.
A NATO member blocking entry of another country into the alliance has happened before. For a long time, Greece had vetoed membership of Macedonia amid their historical naming dispute. Greece didn’t want Macedonia to become a member using the name “Macedonia”. Thus, the country’s entry was only approved after Macedonia officially renamed itself “North Macedonia” in order to resolve the naming dispute. You can see how Greece was willing to lift its veto on Macedonia’s entry into NATO in exchange for concessions. That’s really what Erdoğan wants.
Concessions
Erdoğan’s spokesperson and presidential foreign policy advisor Ibrahim Kalin has clarified that Turkey is “not closing the door” on Finland and Sweden’s entry. “We are basically raising this issue as a matter of national security for Turkey,” Kalin told news agency Reuters.
Kalin claimed that the PKK was raising funds and recruiting in Europe and its presence is “strong and open and acknowledged” particularly in Sweden, emphasising that the Scandinavian NATO applicants must “stop allowing PKK outlets, activities, organisations, individuals and other types of presence to … exist in those countries”.
“This is the first point that we want to bring to the attention of all the allies as well as to Swedish authorities,” he added. “Of course, we want to have a discussion, a negotiation with Swedish counterparts,” Kalin told Reuters.
The concessions Erdoğan is seeking may not be restricted to these things alone. You see, Erdoğan is facing political trouble at home. Turkey is going through an economic crisis and Erdoğan’s popularity has fallen. The country will head into a general election next year and Erdoğan’s chances of getting re-elected don’t look good at the moment, and this has galvanised his political opposition at home. The 68-year-old desperately needs something to tap into Turkey’s nationalistic sentiment, reposition himself as a strong leader and lift his popularity domestically.
Blocking to get concessions is a tactic Erdoğan has used before. In 2009, Erdoğan had briefly stalled former Danish prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s appointment as NATO’s secretary general because Denmark was allowing a Kurdish rebel television channel to broadcast from there. Erdoğan soon relented, but the TV channel closed later.
Observers also suggest that besides getting Finland and Sweden to extradite some key individuals allegedly linked to the PKK (which isn’t easy) and the two countries to stop “supporting” the outfit, Turkey may also want the US to reinstate the country’s participation in the F-35 fighter jet project, drop CAATSA sanctions and unblock sale of new F-16 jets to Ankara. Turkey’s acquisitions of the F-35 fifth-generation stealth multirole combat aircraft were blocked — and the country was removed from the programme — in 2019 over security concerns after it purchased S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems from Russia.
From Untwined’s archives: India’s S-400s and the American dilemma
While we’re talking about European nations dropping their neutrality, let’s also look at Switzerland. The Swiss Confederation had remained militarily neutral since 1815 and had managed to stay out of the two world wars despite being in the heart of continental Europe. But in the wake of the war in Ukraine, the landlocked country is also tilting towards the West in terms of defence alignment, though it’s not likely to formally join NATO. Paelvi Pulli, Swiss defence ministry’s head of security policy, told Reuters that the country is preparing options that include joint military exercises with NATO members and refilling ammunition. “Ultimately, there could be changes in the way [Swiss] neutrality is interpreted,” Pulli told Reuters.
Worth a listen: ‘How Vladimir Putin rejuvenated NATO’, a podcast episode by The Guardian
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This satellite image shows a tiny enclaved kingdom. Its population is just above two million. It was a British colony until 1966 and was then called Basutoland. What country is this?
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Sri Lanka defaults
The island nation of Sri Lanka this week defaulted on its debt for the first time, amid its worst economic crisis. The default came after a 30-day grace period for the repayment of $78 million of debt interest payments ended on May 18. According to the Financial Times, it’s the first Asia-Pacific country to default in decades.
The country is trying to secure bailouts from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and is seeking restructuring of its foreign debt to the tune of $50 billion.
Sri Lanka’s new Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe warned citizens earlier in the week that the crisis will get worse before the situation improves. “The next couple of months will be the most difficult ones of our lives,” Wickremesinghe said.
The prime minister admitted that Sri Lanka had run out of fuel and didn’t have enough money to pay for it anymore. The country was, he added, printing money to pay for essential goods and services.
North Korea’s COVID-19 situation worsens
North Korean authorities reported more than 260,000 new cases of “fever” and two deaths on May 20. This has taken the country’s suspected novel coronavirus caseload to 2.2 million and 65 confirmed deaths. It’s running short of COVID-19 test kits, so it’s impossible to know how many are actually infected by the virus. And remember, these are just numbers that the secretive regime has chosen to tell the world. The real numbers could be even more.
Last week, North Korea went into a strict nationwide lockdown after confirming what it claims to be its first wave of COVID-19 cases. For more than two years since the pandemic began, the country had tried to block the spread of the disease by sealing its borders. While the North never confirmed any COVID-19 case until now, it’s widely believed that the virus has circulated there given its porous borders with China which has seen waves of cases. The population may have low immunity against the virus. Nearly 26 million citizens aren’t vaccinated against COVID-19 (the country refused to accept vaccine doses from others even in the form of donations). A large part of the population is believed to be malnourished and the country’s healthcare infrastructure is also known to be in shambles. It remains unclear if the healthcare system would be able to cope with such a high caseload if the infections continue to spread quickly.
The North Korean government has urged citizens facing COVID-19 symptoms to use traditional medicines, perhaps because of the shortage of effective antiviral drugs. The military has been roped in to stabilise the supply of medicines.
AMLO threatens SOA boycott
The Summit of the Americas that US President Joe Biden will host in Los Angeles next month may see some boycotts. The Biden administration reportedly isn’t extending invitations to the heads of state from Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela (because the US considers them as leading authoritarian regimes), though the summit meeting is meant to include all countries in North and South America. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Bolivian President Luis Arce, among others, are threatening to boycott the summit unless all nations in the Americas are invited. Will the US give in and invite the three nations to avoid embarrassment?
Interesting stuff
“In modern times, the monarchy has never enjoyed any significant support in largely French-speaking Quebec, the second most populous [Canadian] province. And Canada’s changing demographics have contributed to the spread of that sentiment elsewhere.” Most Canadians don’t want Charles as king, but changing royal rule isn’t easy — Ian Austen writes in The New York Times.
“If the character of the [Indian Foreign] Service is changing, this will alter the diplomatic identity and behaviour of India as a major rising power.” Kira Huju writes in International Affairs on how the Hindu nationalist ideals of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is changing the country’s diplomacy. Read the full piece here.
Presenting this without a comment:
George W Bush accidentally admits Iraq war was ‘unjustified and brutal’ in gaffe
“The most important lesson China has learned from war in Ukraine is that the United States will not contemplate direct military intervention against a nuclear-armed opponent.” David Sacks writes in Foreign Affairs about what China is learning from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Read the full article here.
“The biggest problem with [Russia’s] military and political situation is that we are in total geopolitical isolation and the whole world is against us, even if we don’t want to admit it,” said Mikhail Khodarenok, a Russian military analyst and retired colonel, on Russian state broadcaster. This short clip from the programme ‘60 Minutes’ is extraordinary because you don’t expect to hear such things on Russian state-controlled media.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Lesotho. The small kingdom, situated in the Maloti Mountains, is enclaved by South Africa on all sides.
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