Helló! I hope you had a productive week and that you have a great weekend ahead. Before we begin, I would like to extend a very warm welcome and a big thank you to all subscribers who have joined in the past couple of weeks.
This week, we’re looking at how Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s re-election has increased the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s problems.
We’re also looking at the constitutional crisis in Pakistan where Prime Minister Imran Khan has been forced to take a no-confidence vote after week-long drama in the country’s Supreme Court, and how protests have spread quickly across Sri Lanka amid the economic crisis. Protesters there are calling for the Rajapaksa family’s ouster. In France, President Emmanuel Macron is feeling the heat as his main presidential election rival, Marine Le Pen, has closed the gap significantly just days ahead of the first round of polling. There’s lots more. Let’s get started.
This day that year
2010: United States president Barack Obama and Russian president Dmitry Medvedev signed the New START Treaty meant to reduce strategic nuclear arms possessed by the two countries. It replaced START I.
1950: India and Pakistan signed the Delhi Pact. According to the bilateral treaty, signed in context of the horrors of the Partition, refugees were allowed to return to get rid of their property, and looted property was to be returned. Abducted women were to be released, forced conversions were unrecognised and minority rights in both nations were reaffirmed.
Europe’s Orbán problem
In the run-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we discussed how the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) had a Germany-sized problem in its strategy. That was because Germany was seen as unwilling to decisively act against Russia (that has since changed). However, there’s another member of the European Union and NATO that continues to be a problem, i.e., Viktor Orbán-led Hungary. And, as the EU and NATO realised this week: that problem has just gotten worse.
Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán won his fourth consecutive (and overall, fifth) general election this week. This will let him continue as the country’s chief executive until 2026. And, with a no term limit, he could go on thereafter. Beating anti-incumbency, Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP (Christian Democratic People's Party) alliance won more than 130 of the National Assembly’s 199 seats. He was even endorsed by former US president Donald Trump. His win came despite the opposition having cobbled up a wide alliance (of not so like-minded parties). The opposition, while promising to reverse things Orbán’s has done so far, had even managed to agree on a common prime ministerial candidate.
While at first glance, Orbán’s win may seem regular, but it isn’t. Orbán’s government has been credited with successful implementation of welfare programmes. But his political influence instead comes from the promotion of conservative and traditional Hungarian “family values”. That’s where his key voter base is. In the past, he had himself publicly described his political vision as supporting “Christian democracy”, and had even gone as far as calling it “illiberal”. His policies are particularly hostile to the LGBT+ community. While LGBT+ rights are protected by EU laws, member states are allowed to have their own laws on certain aspects such as same-sex civil unions. So, his government amended the country’s constitution to redefine “family” and effectively banned child adoption by same-sex couples. Orbán has also used the fear of the “other” and has often taken an anti-immigrant stand.
Hungary’s clear democratic backsliding has been attributed to Orbán’s grip over power. In 2010, his government tweaked the constitution to introduce the current electoral system. Hungary’s unicameral National Assembly has a total of 199 members. But only 106 of them are directly elected by the people. The remaining 93 members are appointed based on proportional representation of parties with more than five percent of the vote share. This system benefits larger parties like his own.
The ‘State of Democracy in Europe 2021’ report by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance has traced consistent democracy backsliding in Hungary back to 2010 — the year Orban returned to power.
In the early 2010s, the Hungarian government changed the rules to allow dual citizenship of Hungarian ethnicity abroad. They are also allowed to vote. It’s widely believed that this voter base tilts towards Orbán. More than 1.1 million people have acquired dual Hungarian citizenship — and thus, voting rights – since the rule change (though not all of them would vote). That number is significant considering that the country’s total population is about 9.7 million.
In 2018, his government created a parallel court system to extend Orbán’s grip on the country’s judiciary. Jurisdiction of politically sensitive matters such as corruption, electoral law and handling protests was transferred to this new parallel court system. The judges in these courts are appointed by Orbán’s government. This is classic court packing.
His government has been accused of favouring a cluster of oligarchs who are personally and politically close to Orbán, embedding corruption deep into the system.
In setups like these, news media is usually a direct casualty. But things are a bit different in Hungary. The government hasn’t forced censorship on news media. At least not on a system-wide basis like Russia. But you see, all those strongman tactics aren’t really needed if the authoritarian leader is able to control the media indirectly. Unlike the United Kingdom’s BBC which is generally independent editorially (well, they can criticise the prime minister without having to worry about the consequences), the Hungarian state broadcaster is sharply pro-government. Independent news media outlets are almost non-existent and large private media companies are owned by oligarchs close to Orbán — so they too have a pro-government bias. This makes Hungary one of the worst performers in terms of press freedom in the EU.
While Orbán’s camp would argue that the country still has an opposition and that elections themselves are free, there’s little doubt that they aren’t fair. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), a European intergovernmental organisation which sent observers to monitor the election, said that polling was marred by the absence of a level playing field and by the “pervasive overlapping of government and ruling coalition’s messaging that blurred the line between state and party, as well as by media bias and opaque campaign funding”. Similar concerns have been raised around previous elections.
View from Brussels
The EU and Orbán have for long shared a difficult relationship. Brussels blames Orbán for dismantling Hungary’s democratic institutions and Orbán has sought to keep Hungary out of Brussels’ influence. For Brussels, the problem is that Orbán’s idea of Hungary contradicts that of the EU and NATO. Though Hungary is a member of the EU as well as NATO, Orbán is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. When the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Orbán was believed to be in a tricky situation. But he has sought to balance his country’s position between the two sides. Orbán allowed deployment of NATO troops in eastern Hungary and accepted some Ukrainian refugees. But his political stand is far from most European nations. In his victory speech, Orbán criticised EU bureaucrats and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling them “opponents”.
And while Hungary has joined EU sanctions on Moscow, the country has been cautious in criticising Russia. Orbán’s government also wants to continue purchasing Russian oil and gas. In fact, it’s prepared to pay for Russian natural gas in rubles.
In the past, the European Parliament had voted in favour of disciplinary proceedings against Hungary for undermining the EU’s democratic values and the rule of law. And on April 5, the European Commission launched a new rule-of-law procedure against Hungary that could deprive Budapest of more than €40 billion of EU payments. But recent developments have led some, like former UK minister of Europe Denis MacShane, to propose a larger remedy: that the EU needs to have the power to revoke membership.
With Orbán set to remain at the helm in Hungary for at least four more years, this situation has become a greater problem for the EU. The EU and NATO would be worried about Hungary’s reliability more than ever before. Orbán is emboldened. So, we’re looking at increased friction between Budapest and Brussels in the coming years.
Pakistan’s constitutional crisis
The Supreme Court of Pakistan on April 7 said Prime Minister Imran Khan’s advice to the president, to dissolve the National Assembly, was unconstitutional. The top court said that the deputy Speaker’s decision to cancel the no-confidence vote against Khan’s government was also unconstitutional. Therefore, the National Assembly will convene on April 9 for the pending no-confidence vote. If the government loses the vote, a new prime minister would be elected (Shehbaz Sharif is the frontrunner) for the period until the next scheduled general election. At this point, Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party — which is leading the ruling coalition — doesn’t seem to have a majority in the Assembly.
On April 3, Pakistan’s political crisis had turned into a constitutional crisis. Deputy Speaker Qasim Khan Suri had junked the no-confidence motion Khan was supposed to face that day, and adjourned the session. This was based on the government’s unproven claim that the no-confidence vote had been brought in by the opposition as part of an alleged foreign conspiracy for regime change. Shortly after the no-confidence vote was cancelled, Khan informed the nation that the parliament was being suspended and an early general election will be held. Acting on this advice of the prime minister, Pakistan’s President Dr Arif Alvi dissolved the House. As per the constitution, fresh elections were to be held in 90 days. However, opposition parties had moved the Supreme Court claiming that decisions made by the deputy Speaker, Khan and the president were unconstitutional.
Check out last week’s edition for what has happened on this front so far.
Turmoil in Sri Lanka
It was a volatile week in Sri Lanka. The Rajapaksa clan-led government lost majority in parliament amid the country’s worst economic crisis. Dozens of members of parliament aligned with their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party-led coalition withdrew their support. But they are not overtly supporting the opposition yet. The main opposition party is now threatening a no-confidence motion against the government. Earlier in the week, the government urged opposition leaders to join in forming a national unity government amid the turmoil. That offer was rejected by the opposition.
The country of about 22 million is facing record inflation levels. There’s a massive shortage of food and fuel. Plus, power blackouts have been lasting 13 hours a day at times.
‘Go Gota Go’
Anti-government violent protests, mainly led by students, have spread quickly across the island nation. Protesters have attempted to storm ministries and the homes of senior government officials. They are calling for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign. The slogan ‘Go Gota Go’ has become a rallying call, but it’s not limited to seeking President Gotabaya’s resignation. Protesters also want the ouster of the entire Rajapaksa clan.
The government responded by imposing a state of emergency (which was later revoked) and a ban on social media. The latter drew criticism from many, including cabinet minister Namal — the son of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. It’s unclear if Namal’s criticism of the social media blackout was part of a strategy to protect his political future by projecting him to be pro-protesters. Demand for VPNs (virtual private networks) reportedly surged 17,075 percent (not a typo) in Sri Lanka during the ban.
About 60 people were arrested earlier for some of the violent protests and the United Nations Human Rights Council has warned that authorities’ response needs to be “proportionate” and “should not be used to stifle dissent or hinder peaceful protest”.
But as the pressure grew, the cabinet — except PM Mahinda Rajapaksa — itself resigned. A new finance minister was appointed, but he too resigned within two days.
Former Sri Lankan prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said that the protests were a “popular uprising” akin to the “Arab Spring”. This is significant because Wickremesinghe, though an opposition leader, conceded that “political parties have been shoved to the side”.
Meanwhile, the country’s top medical union was forced to declare a national health emergency due to the shortage of essential medicines. Parliament’s Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardana warned that there was an imminent threat of starvation and that this was “just the beginning”.
The trouble Sri Lanka finds itself in is deep and complicated. It’ll likely take a long time for the country to emerge out of this crisis.
Check out last week’s edition for more on what caused this economic crisis.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This satellite image shows a small town in Europe (demarcated with a yellow line). The town with a population of just under 1,600 is an exclave and is separated by a 1.6 kilometre-wide land corridor belonging to another country. What place is this?
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
French election: Macron feels the heat
I’ll be closely following the French presidential election. The first round of voting will happen on April 10 and the second round will take place on April 24. Europe is in the midst of its greatest crisis since the end of the Second World War because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine happening at its doorstep. France is one of the most central nations in the European Union and therefore, the French president always plays a significant role in the region. Now, just days before the first round of voting, the gap between President Emmanuel Macron — who is seeking re-election — and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, though still trailing, has suddenly closed significantly. Le Pen, who lost to Macron in 2017, now stands a realistic chance of defeating him. The Economist’s election prediction model is still predicting a “likely” win for Macron. But Le Pen’s surging popularity has sent alarm bells ringing in Macron’s camp. The two have diverging views of France’s role in Europe: Macron is pro-Europeanism and Le Pen is Eurosceptic. This could turn out to be a very close election. Or not.
Rwandan court declines extension of Rusesabagina’s sentence
A Rwandan court on April 4 declined an attempt by prosecutors to extend Paul Rusesabagina’s 25-year sentence, to life in prison. Rusesabagina is a former hotelier who has turned into a dissident. In September 2021, Rusesabagina, 67, was convicted on charges including murder, kidnapping and belonging to a terrorist group. According to Rusesabagina’s family and human rights groups, the case and the charges against him are politically motivated because he has been a vocal critic of President Paul Kagame’s government.
Rusesabagina, now a Belgian citizen, was hailed as a hero for helping save more than 1,200 people during the 1994 Rwandan genocide. His story was portrayed in the 2004 film Hotel Rwanda. In 2005, he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom — one of the US’ two highest civilian honours. He was living in exile in the US. But in 2020, Rusesabagina boarded a flight believing it would take him from Dubai, United Arab Emirates to Burundi. However, the aircraft landed in Rwandan capital Kigali where he was arrested.
Turkey transfers Khashoggi trial to Saudi Arabia
A Turkish court has transferred the Jamal Khashoggi murder trial to Saudi Arabia. The trial would most likely be brought to an end there. The decision comes at a time when Turkey is trying to fix its ties with Saudi Arabia. The trial was opened by Turkey in 2020 but was unlikely to yield any result because Saudi Arabia had refused to extradite the suspects. Turkish law doesn’t allow people who haven’t testified being convicted.
In 2018, Khashoggi, a well-known Saudi journalist, was killed and dismembered allegedly by a Saudi hit squad inside the country’s consulate in Istanbul, Turkey when he 59-year-old had gone there to get paperwork done needed to marry his fiancée, Hatice Cengiz. His body was never found.
Khashoggi was critical of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Saudi government. He lived outside Saudi Arabia and wrote columns for The Washington Post. The Saudi crown prince has maintained that he has nothing to do with Khashoggi's murder. However, the US's Central Intelligence Agency has claimed that the murder plot was approved by the crown prince. Human rights groups were hoping that the Turkish court would reveal some evidence and details of who was involved in Khashoggi’s murder.
North Korea’s response
Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, has warned that her country could use nuclear weapons if attacked by South Korea. It’s believed that the warning was for Yoon Suk-yeol, who will become the South’s president next month.
Yo-jong, who is a senior official in the North Korean government, was quoted by the state broadcaster as saying that remarks of the South’s Defence Minister Suh Wook discussing attacks on the North was a “very big mistake”. Last week, Wook had said that his country’s military has “the ability to accurately and quickly hit any target in North Korea”.
In an earlier statement, Yo-jong had warned that the North would destroy major targets in South Korea’s capital Seoul if the South takes any “dangerous military action” such as a pre-emptive strike. Yo-jong also said that Wook’s remarks had “further worsened the inter-Korean relations and military tension” on the peninsula. The two Koreas — separated by the demilitarized zone — technically remain at war with each other even though the armed conflict between them de facto stopped in 1953.
Interesting stuff
In this immersive story, The New York Times has put together how and why Russia has failed to capture Ukrainian capital Kyiv so far.
“The golden rule of diplomacy is “to put oneself in the shoes of the other.” If Putin, Zelenskyy and NATO leaders would follow this rule, it might be possible to identify and seize narrow windows of opportunity to forge a de facto ceasefire.” Kazuhiko Togo writes in Responsible Statecraft about how Japan’s experience can offer wisdom for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Read the full piece here.
“Instead of consolidation, the war in Ukraine seems likely to lead to greater fragmentation of the global order.” Shivshankar Menon, India’s former national security advisor and foreign secretary, writes in Foreign Affairs that the Russian invasion of Ukraine won’t unite democracies against China and Russia. Read the full piece here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Llívia, Spain. It’s a Spanish exclave in France. Movement between Llívia and the rest of Spain through France is not a problem as both nations are in the Schengen Area and the road in France connecting the town and Spain is considered neutral territory.
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