Nǐ hǎo! I hope you had a productive week. In this edition we’re discussing what we should watch out for at next week’s 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. It’s a big and an important event. What happens at the party congress determines the future of the world’s most populous nation, the second-largest economy and therefore, the rest of the world. All eyes are on Beijing. All eyes are on Chinese President Xi Jinping. But we’re also briefly looking at the United States’ new National Security Strategy, snap general elections in Malaysia, and rivals Israel and Lebanon settling their maritime dispute.
Just a quick note: some of you may have received last week’s edition in your ‘promotions’ email inbox instead of the main inbox. I would really appreciate it if you could manually move that Untwined email to your main inbox so that future editions would, hopefully, land in the main inbox and it would be easier for you to find them.
Now, let’s get started.
This day that year
1981: Egyptian Vice President Hosni Mubarak became the country’s president a week after Anwar Sadat’s assassination. Mubarak remained in power until 2011 when he was forced to flee amid the Arab Spring protests.
1962: The United States’ U-2 reconnaissance aircraft clicked photographs of Soviet ballistic missiles being installed in Cuba, triggering the Cuban Missile Crisis — often considered the closest the Cold War came to spiralling into a full-fledged nuclear conflict.
All eyes on Beijing
All eyes are on Beijing where the Communist Party of China, officially abbreviated as CPC, will hold its all-important week-long party congress starting October 16. The National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, simply called the party congress, is held every five years and is widely considered to be the most important event in Chinese politics. This will be the 20th party congress. Chinese President Xi Jinping is the man of the moment.
The CCP (I abbreviate it as CCP, instead of CPC because of the direct English translation of the party name) was founded in 1921 and stormed to power in 1949 under the leadership of Mao Zedong after defeating Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang in the long Chinese civil war. The Constitution was framed in a way that placed the CCP at the heart of the Chinese state and essentially made that single party the government. The CCP has over 95 million members today and enjoys a supermajority in the National People’s Congress — something like a parliament. Members of the National People’s Congress are more like delegates sent by China’s provincial congresses. The assembly is largely symbolic and the delegates almost never challenge the party leadership.
There are eight other very small political parties. But all of them subscribe to “socialism with Chinese characteristics” — a set of political theories and policies of the CCP representing Marxism–Leninism adapted to Chinese circumstances. These smaller parties don’t, and in effect, cannot, challenge CCP’s rule. All parties are part of the same coalition called the United Front. Therefore, there’s practically no opposition at the legislative level.
The Chinese leadership is greatly insecure and always looks out for potential challenges to their rule. These challenges are not just external, but also internal. Therefore, the practice is to snuff out any resistance or dissent at the onset. To maintain its grip on the country, the CCP employs robust propaganda, undertakes purges and uses censorship — including through what’s famously called the “Great Firewall” — to block all forms of criticism, political challenges and to limit dissenters from organising themselves into any systematic political opposition. The Chinese government is also accused of committing serious human rights violations, amounting to “crimes against humanity” (according to a recent United Nations report), on a massive scale like in the case of the Xinjiang province, but also to varying degrees across the country. The CCP also tries to impose Mandarin and a certain way of life on the country’s other ethnic groups in a bid to create a more homogeneous Chinese society.
The CCP controls all pillars of the Chinese state — the legislature, the judiciary and even the military. Though the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is China’s defence force, it essentially reports to and is operated by the party, not the state. The commander-in-chief of the PLA is almost always the party chief (also the country’s president).
Initially, there were no term limits to the Chinese presidency. But between 1982 and 2018, the Constitution didn’t allow the president and the vice president to serve more than two consecutive five-year terms. As a result, leaders like Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao had to step down upon completion of their 10 years in power. That has changed. In 2018, the Constitution was amended to remove this term-limit. This allows Xi to become a “president for life” — or until he wishes to remain in power — as long as he manages to get himself re-elected by a majority vote in the rubber-stamp parliament at the conclusion of each term.
In theory, the power within the CCP is supposed to flow from the bottom to the top leadership. But in reality, the power flows top-down. Decisions are often taken in advance behind closed doors and voting in the party congress is used merely as a formality.
Next week’s event would have seen the election of a new Chinese president if Xi’s term would have remained capped. But it’s widely understood that Xi, aged 69, is seeking another term.
This is expected. Xi has been working to elevate his stature to the level of Mao. At the last party congress in 2017, the “Xi Jinping Thought” (policies and ideas derived from Xi’s speeches and writings) were enshrined into the Chinese Constitution. The only other Chinese leader to have had his “thought” incorporated in the Constitution was Mao. Even the work of a powerful Chinese leader like Deng Xiaoping was inserted into the Constitution only after his death and merely as the “Deng Xiaoping Theory”, not a “thought”. Ideas of other Chinese leaders have been added too, but without their names. Now, there’s speculation that Xi may give himself the title of the Chairman of CCP (the party doesn’t use a gender-neutral term like “chairperson”) — something that no Chinese leader has used after 1982. More importantly, the title is famously associated with Mao. Xi, like all Chinese leaders since 1982, has so far used the “general secretary” nomenclature. This move, China watchers suggest, would place him on par with Mao — definitively surpassing Deng.
The Chinese leadership has set itself a target of completing the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by 2049. This is basically a target to transform China into a developed nation and emerge as the dominant power by mid-century. There are stepping stones towards that goal such as completing modernisation of its military by 2035 that the CCP has been focusing on. But, Xi has hastened military modernisation and has pushed a more aggressive foreign policy in order to quickly expand Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Therefore, Xi’s remarks at the event will be important.
Another objective as part of the “great rejuvenation” of China is to take back control of Taiwan, with force if required. In recent months, there have been concerns that China is drawing lessons from the botched Russian invasion of Ukraine so as to not make mistakes Moscow made, if Beijing decides to attack Taiwan. What Xi says about Taiwan at the party congress will be closely watched.
Key things to watch out for:
Xi is widely expected to be handed a third consecutive term as the general secretary, and therefore as the paramount leader of China.
He could also be given the title of the Chairman of the CCP — reaffirming his position as being on par with Mao.
Unlike the president, the Chinese premier (the second-most powerful person in the country) can’t get a third term. Therefore, the current Premier Li Keqiang will be replaced. The election will happen at the event next week. Who will succeed Li? There are many names doing the rounds, including “liberal” Wang Yang. But we’ll only know when it happens.
People will be promoted to the Politburo and its Standing Committee. Who is elected — and the apparent compromises that are made in the process — will provide a glimpse into the current internal dynamics of the CCP (which has factions) and give analysts an idea of Xi’s actual grip on the party. It’ll also help observers see if Xi is trying to nurture a successor and if he’s looking to stay in power longer (fourth term and beyond).
Xi’s speech as well as the major work report will be closely watched. The work report evaluates the party’s achievements over the last five years and lays the groundwork for its policies, priorities and objectives for the next five. The report is considered as the most important CCP document by external observers. Beyond domestic and economic policies, the report is significant in understanding China’s foreign policy objectives and analysing its implications on the New Cold War with the United States, and its relations with its neighbours and others in the Indo-Pacific.
Having almost certainly secured another term, there’s hope inside and outside China that Xi will junk the Zero-COVID policy and reopen the country. Businesses and the economy have been hurting because of continued lockdowns. But recent commentary in state-owned news media suggests that we shouldn’t be expecting any announcement marking a sudden shift away from the Zero-COVID strategy, at least at the party congress. But, who knows what the secretive CCP can pull off?
At the moment, much of what we’re hearing about what will happen at the party congress is speculation or calculated guesswork at best.
Recommendations
This video by the South China Morning Post (the publication is owned by the Alibaba Group, whose co-founder Jack Ma is reportedly a CCP member) seeks to explains how the CCP operates:
I strongly recommend listening to The Economist’s ‘The Prince’ podcast. The eight-episode series narrates the story of how Xi went from being a “princeling” to China’s all-powerful paramount leader. I found it very helpful in understanding Xi’s personality, his worldview and the factors that shape his actions. Each episode is around 35-40 minutes and is available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
‘How Xi rewrote China’s rulebook to build the party around himself’ by Bloomberg
On a similar note, Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister and a leading international authority on China, has written in Foreign Affairs about what Xi thinks and really believes about the world.
“[Chinese President] Xi’s Marxist nationalism is an ideological blueprint for the future; it is the truth about China that is hiding in plain sight. Under Xi, the CCP will evaluate changing international circumstances through the prism of dialectical analysis — and not necessarily in ways that will make sense to outsiders.”
What else?
US’ new National Security Strategy
The US’ Joe Biden administration published the country’s updated National Security Strategy (of course, the unclassified version) this week. This document replaced the interim strategic guidance the US government had issued in March 2021, a couple of months after Biden became the president. It gives an overview of American security priorities in an ever-changing world. The new document isn’t really ground-breaking and is more like an extension of what was said in the interim guidance. However, some aspects vis-à-vis Russia and Ukraine have been discussed in greater detail.
Read the full US National Security Strategy (October 2022) here and the fact sheet here.
The US has reiterated that it considers “out-competing China and constraining Russia” as its priorities. The document says that the US continues to support the “One China policy” but also reiterates that Washington DC will uphold its commitments made under the Taiwan Relations Act to support Taiwan’s self-defence and “to maintain … capacity to resist any resort to force or coercion against Taiwan”. But it also hoping to work with China to tackle global challenges such as climate change and public health.
The document, meanwhile, reaffirms American commitments of defending its treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific, and re-emphasises the role the Quad and the AUKUS are expected to play in maintaining stability in the region.
Of course, the strategic document discusses at length about the challenges posed by Russia — keeping in mind the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine and the changed security architecture in Europe.
Interestingly, a substantial portion of the document is dedicated to discussing how the US aims to tackle core challenges in the Western Hemisphere — where it enjoys regional hegemony. Further, the security strategy touches upon American attempts to deepen its alliance in Europe, support de-escalation and integration in West Asia and maintain peace in the Arctic.
Snap polls in Malaysia
Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob dissolved parliament this week, paving the way for a snap general election. This election is to happen within the next two months. The ruling Barisan Nasional coalition led by Yaakob’s United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party is hoping to capitalise on a fragmented opposition. Originally, the next general election was to take place in 2023.
Former PM Mahathir Mohamad, aged 97, has announced that he’ll contest to defend his Langkawi seat and that his party — the Homeland Fighters’ Party — wants to work with other opposition groups to defeat the Malay nationalist UMNO.
UMNO, then led by Najib Razak, had suffered a shock defeat in the 2018 general election at the hands of a united multi-ethnic opposition coalition called the Pakatan Harapan which included parties of Mahathir and his former rival and former deputy PM Anwar Ibrahim (in absentia). This had ended UMNO’s uninterrupted rule over Malaysia since the country’s independence in 1957. Razak is now in jail after being convicted in the 1MDB abuse of power and corruption case. Mahathir’s government had, however, collapsed in 2020 and following a political crisis in 2021, the government led by Muhyyidin Yassin also eventually allowed an UMNO government, this time led by Yaakob, to return to power. But Yaakob is himself running an unstable alliance. It’s not clear if the election would yield a clear mandate and put an end to political instability.
Malaysia is a confluence of cultures and an important Southeast Asian economy. A majority of the country’s population are ethnic Malays. But ethnic Chinese, Indians and some indigenous groups form a significant chunk of the population.
Read more: ‘How Malaysia’s election system works’ by Reuters
Israel, Lebanon settling maritime dispute
Israel and Lebanon reached a historic agreement, brokered by the US, this week, to settle their maritime border dispute in an area in the eastern Mediterranean Sea which is rich in gas.
“This unprecedented deal will strengthen Israel’s security, bolster our economy and deliver cleaner, more affordable energy to countries around the world,” Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said in a tweet. The Lebanese presidency said in a tweet that the signed pact “meets its demands and preserves its rights to its natural wealth”.
The deal will allow both countries — which haven’t been at good terms with each other historically — to increase offshore gas production. It will also enable Israeli gas exports to Europe at a time when supplies from Russia have been cut because of sanctions. It’s also an important win for PM Lapid ahead of the elections next month. On the other hand, Lebanon is reeling under an economic crisis, and desperately needs the gas and the money. There were concerns that if Israel began drilling in the Karish gas field before the dispute was settled, it could face reprisals from Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The negotiations were tough because Lebanon doesn’t recognise Israel and the Israeli defence forces also have a highly unfavourable view of the country’s northern neighbour as an enemy.
Interesting stuff
Watch: ‘The Crimea Bridge Explosion, Analysed’ by the Wall Street Journal. While Ukraine welcomed the October 8 attack on the bridge, it didn’t claim responsibility for it. Russia retaliated by carrying out missile strikes in civilian areas of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on October 10.
“All sides must not only be threatened with harm for crossing these redlines but also be assured that they will not suffer catastrophic losses to their interests if they refrain from these actions.” Andrew J. Nathan, Bonnie S. Glaser, Jessica Chen Weiss, M. Taylor Fravel and Thomas J. Christensen write in Foreign Affairs about how a war over Taiwan can be avoided. Read the full article here. The article is adapted from the Avoiding War Over Taiwan policy brief.
Naila Inayat, a freelance journalist from Pakistan, writes for The Print about how audio leaks have kicked off “happy hours” in Pakistani politics with everyone having stuff against everyone. Read the full opinion piece here.
“Nothing better illustrates [US President] Biden’s neglect of the relationship with India than the fact that, since he took office, there has been no US ambassador in New Delhi.” Amid the recent discord, Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Center for Policy Research, highlights in Project Syndicate that the India-US partnership is too important to lose. Read the opinion piece here.
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