Hello! I hope you had a great week. In this edition, we’re looking at how Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim’s decades-long wait has finally ended. He became the Southeast Asian country’s prime minister this week.
We’re also looking at how appointment of Pakistan’s new army chief is a setback for former premier Imran Khan, a historic agreement between developed and developing nations for a new fund covering ‘loss and damage’ caused by extreme weather events linked to climate change, and exploring what the debut of Kim Jong-un’s daughter in North Korean propaganda might mean.
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This day that year
1992: The parliament of Czechoslovakia voted to split the country into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The peaceful split came into effect on January 1, 1993.
1510: Portuguese forces seized Goa (in modern-day India) from the Sultanate of Bijapur. This resulted in four and a half centuries of colonial rule there which ended in 1961 with the territory’s accession to India.
Anwar Ibrahim’s long wait ends
Anwar Ibrahim’s political career reached a crescendo this week. The long-time Opposition leader finally became Malaysia’s prime minister — after waiting in the wings for about a quarter of a century. Anwar, 79, was sworn-in to Malaysia’s highest executive office by King Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah on November 24. An intervention by the elective constitutional monarch and Anwar’s appointment came after days of government formation negotiations between various political blocs when the general election resulted in a hung parliament — the first in the Southeast Asian country’s history. He will be Malaysia’s fifth prime minister in five years.
The reformist Pakatan Harapan alliance (‘Alliance of Hope’) led by Anwar’s People’s Justice Party (abbreviated PKP in Malay) won just over 80 seats in the 222-member Dewan Rakyat (lower house of parliament) — falling short of majority. Former PM Muhyiddin Yassin’s conservative Perikatan Nasional alliance followed closely with 73 seats and was hoping to cobble up enough numbers to stake claim. To run the government, Anwar will require the continued support of his long-time rivals from the Barisan Nasional coalition.
Who is Anwar Ibrahim?
Hailing from a politically-active family, Anwar became a student activist and led protests against hunger and rural poverty. He then quickly rose through the ranks of the Malay nationalist United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) party (which leads the Barisan Nasional) and served in multiple ministerial positions in Mahathir Mohamad’s government. He eventually became Malaysia’s finance minister in the early 1990s at a time when the country enjoyed an unprecedented economic boom, and was the deputy prime minister when it braved the 1997 Asian financial crisis. At this point, Anwar was widely seen as Mahathir’s eventual successor.
However, Anwar had a fallout with Mahathir. He was sacked from the Cabinet and fired from UMNO amid allegations of corruption and an ongoing investigation into homosexuality (illegal in Malaysia). In 1999, he was convicted and jailed on both accounts. However, the trials drew criticism from around the world. Many believe the cases against Anwar were politically motivated and were aimed at ending his political career. Amnesty International called Anwar a “prisoner of conscience”. In 2004, a year after Mahathir voluntarily stepped down as the premier, Malaysia’s supreme court overturned Anwar’s conviction and released him from imprisonment. But he remained banned from politics until 2008. This relegated him to the side-lines of Malaysian politics. In the interim, Anwar’s wife Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail led the country’s Reformasi political movement and their own PKP party. The party became a popular opposition force and its vote share increased in successive general elections. However, despite Anwar’s eventual re-entry into active politics, the party failed to oust the UMNO government. He was jailed again for sodomy in 2015. Anwar maintained that this case was also politically motivated and meant to stop his alliance from making heavy electoral gains.
For the 2018 general election, Anwar’s alliance joined hands with his nemesis Mahathir. Together, they succeeded in accomplishing their shared goal: dethroning the Najib Razak-led UMNO/Barisan Nasional government. Between the country’s foundation in 1957 and 2018, the UMNO-led alliance had enjoyed an uninterrupted reign. Happening just after the 1MDB corruption scandal (for more on this, check out the ‘The Man at the Top’ episode of Netflix’s Dirty Money series), the election in 2018 was the first time the UMNO/Barisan Nasional was rejected by voters. Anwar was able to get a royal pardon on grounds of “miscarriage of justice” and was expected to eventually takeover as the prime minister from 92-year-old Mahathir. But their government collapsed in 2020 amid infighting — depriving him the top job once again. Following a political crisis in 2021, the new government led by Muhyiddin (who leads Perikatan Nasional) also made way for another UMNO government, this time led by Ismail Sabri Yaakob, to return to power.
Ismail Sabri called for this snap election, hoping to capitalise on a fragmented opposition or to limit the losses he foresaw for his party. But Anwar’s multi-ethnic and progressive alliance, and Muhyiddin’s conservative ethnic-Malay coalition were seen as the main contenders.
Key takeaways
UMNO, the most dominant party in Malaysian political history, and the Barisan Nasional alliance it leads, were rejected by the voters. It had tasted its first defeat in 2018, but was able to claw back power last year amid political instability. But this time, its margin of defeat widened as compared to 2018. Yet, with 30 seats, the UMNO-led Barisan Nasional are the kingmakers and have the power to pull the plug on Anwar’s government.
The Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), a far-right party aiming to transform Malaysia into an Islamic state, made heavy gains. The PAS fought as part of the Perikatan Nasional coalition. But, having been challenged by Muhyiddin to prove majority in parliament, Anwar has reportedly requested PAS to join his unity government. Some, especially non-Malays such as ethnic Chinese, Indians and some indigenous groups, are concerned that the PAS’ agenda and influence on policymaking would hurt their rights, Malaysia’s democracy, economy and cause social friction. It’s not clear if PAS will accept Anwar’s offer.
Mahathir, Malaysia’s longest-serving prime minister (cumulatively around 24 years), failed to retain his Langkawi seat. Contesting the election under the banner of his own Homeland Fighters’ Party (not as part of the Pakatan Harapan), he finished fourth among five candidates there. This is his first election loss in 53 years. His party failed in all of the 125 seats it contested. Now aged 97, Mahathir has said he accepts the people’s verdict and would now focus on writing about Malaysia’s history.
After waiting for decades, Anwar is now the prime minister. But a hung parliament and a rag-tag coalition government (that includes his rivals) is likely to lead to compromises at every step — affecting governance and contributing to continued political instability. The PAS’ rise will also prove to be a political challenge in the years to come. All this, while the Malaysian economy attempts to spring back after the COVID-19 pandemic, and voters expect quick and effective action against corruption.
What else?
Pakistan’s new army chief
General Syed Asim Munir was appointed as Pakistan’s new Chief of Army Staff (COAS) this week by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. This is being seen as a setback to Sharif’s immediate predecessor Imran Khan.
The Pakistan army is considered to be the most powerful institution in the South Asian country, and enjoys an outsized influence on governance and other organisations. For decades, even when not holding direct power, the army chiefs (more than the navy or air force chiefs) have also successfully dictated the civilian government’s foreign policy and security agenda. Moreover, they have been able to weaken and trigger the collapse of elected governments when desired. No elected Pakistani prime minister has completed a full term in office. Khan is the most recent example of this. This makes the position of the army chief so important.
General Qamar Javed Bajwa was scheduled to retire as the army chief on November 29 and had publicly stated that he won’t seek another extension. He had already served in that position for six years, after receiving a three-year extension in 2019.
Munir was the senior-most among all candidates who were in fray and had also previously led the country’s crucial military intelligence unit. More importantly, he’s widely believed to be against Khan. Khan had removed Munir from coveted Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief’s position in 2019 after the latter raised caution over alleged corruption by Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, reports suggest. Munir was replaced by Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid, who is considered close to Khan.
But that doesn’t mean Munir will cede the control the army holds over the civilian government. He is reportedly close to Bajwa, and is expected to continue maintaining the army’s central and imposing role in Pakistan’s politics and governance.
Who becomes the new army chief would shape his political future, Khan knew very well. Khan is pushing for a snap general election to be held at the earliest, and was arguing that the next army chief should be picked by the next government. This would have allowed him (assuming his party would have won building on the current momentum) to appoint a favourable person to lead the powerful institution. Since the army pulled the plug on his government earlier this year, Khan has tried to rally public support against the generals and the ‘deep state’. He has also sought to tag the Sharif government as having been installed by the generals. When he was shot earlier this month, Khan even claimed (without evidence) that high-level intelligence and government officials and the incumbent prime minister had jointly plotted to assassinate him. The military and the government rejected the allegation.
Now with Munir as the army chief, Khan continues to have his back against the wall. The army has repeatedly tried to convince people that it no longer interferes in politics. Munir’s actions over the coming years will now determine if that’s true, as well as the future of Pakistan’s democracy.
Progress on ‘loss and damage’ fund
Negotiators at the 27th Conference of Parties (COP27) in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt agreed last weekend to establish a new dedicated fund to help compensate developing and vulnerable nations being hit hardest by the adverse impact of climate change.
This had been one of the most contentious matters between the industrialised and the emerging economies in the global climate negotiations. The “Global South” — a term often used for developing nations in the climate regime — argues that because the “Global North” (developed nations) has been largely responsible for the historical emissions resulting in anthropogenic climate change, and thus, the extreme weather events causing damage in vulnerable nations, they should be made to pay reparations. According to a study by Dartmouth College scientists, the United States — the largest carbon emitter over time — had caused more than $1.9 trillion in climate damage in developing nations between 1990 and 2014. Therefore, developing nations want the developed world to not only finance the global green transition, but also pay for the damages caused by extreme climate change-linked weather events such as floods, droughts as well as rising sea levels.
Many industrialised nations who have been major historical polluters had so far resisted these demands for reparations. However, the European Union (EU) softened its resistance in this area as the topic was formally added to the COP agenda for the first time.
No decision has been made about who should pay into the fund, where the funding will come from and which countries will benefit, the United Nations Environment Programme said. A transitional committee will make recommendations on this at COP28 next year.
This money will be over and above the financing being provided for adaptation and mitigation. It must be noted that developed nations failed — by a wide margin — to mobilise climate finance of $100 billion per year by 2020 they had promised the Global South. The Glasgow Climate Pact in 2021 “urged” them to “fully deliver” on that promise in the 2021-2025 period. As a result, there are doubts about whether they would willingly contribute to this loss and damage fund.
Kim Jong-un offers clues of succession?
The surprise first appearance of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s daughter at an intercontinental ballistic missile launch last week has left some speculating whether the 40-year-old dictator is offering clues of future succession.
The regime puts in a lot of thought into what images and videos of Kim are to be released to the world through the state news media. So, the presence of Kim’s daughter in the propaganda footage can’t be an accident. It must have been purposefully choreographed.
Very little is known about Kim’s personal life and family. The photo with his young daughter is the first official confirmation of the existence of Kim’s children. The girl is believed to be named Kim Chu-ae (alternatively spelt Ju Ae by some news outlets), according to South Korean intelligence officials. The name was first mentioned by former American basketball player Dennis Rodman in 2013 after he met Kim’s family in North Korea. She is believed to be the second of Kim’s three children. The children’s age hasn’t been confirmed and there’s no clarity on what the line of succession would be.
While some are speculating that it was Kim’s attempt to signal continuity and stability of the regime by showcasing an heir through the ‘Mount Paektu bloodline’, others believe it was only meant to start cultivating his image as a caring father and benevolent ruler. Whether North Korea’s patriarchal political culture would accept a female leader remains to be seen. In that regard, this could also be an initial step towards creating an atmosphere over the coming decades where a female leader becomes more acceptable among the North Korean political elite. And if this development was indeed about succession, where would it leave Kim’s very influential sister Kim Yo-jong who is also believed to be only in her late 30s.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, as the North is formally called, was founded by Kim’s grandfather Kim Il-sung, who was succeeded by Kim’s father Kim Jong-il in 1994. Kim has ruled the hermit nation since 2011. He is himself believed to be around 40 years old and health concerns notwithstanding, is likely to retain the leadership role for decades to come. There’s currently no way of ascertaining who’ll succeed Kim as a North Korean heir isn’t necessarily picked by seniority among the children.
Read — Worth a thousand words: what Kim Jong‑un’s daughter photo tells
Interesting stuff
“What the world needs isn’t strongly worded international agreements, but a decline in emissions of carbon dioxide.” Bloomberg’s David Fickling argues that the divide in climate talks is now between fossil fuel importers and exporters – not between the Global North and the Global South. Read the full opinion piece here.
“North Korean state media experimented once with live broadcasting — and immediately came to regret it. After a better-than-expected showing against five-time champion Brazil during the 2010 World Cup, KCTV (state broadcaster) aired North Korea’s next match against Portugal live. The entire [country] got to see their team walloped 7-0.” NK News’ Shreyas Reddy writes about how the North Korean state broadcaster is showing the 2022 football world cup to its domestic audience. Read the piece here.
“[Pakistani PM Khan] has upended some of the traditional formula of Pakistani politics and polarised the Pakistani electorate more than ever. Both the military and the political establishment see Khan as the most potent threat they have faced. Pakistan has become more unstable as a result...” Madiha Afzal, Brookings Institution fellow and author, writes in Foreign Affairs about how the former prime minister’s political strategy has polarised Pakistan. Read the piece here.