Olá! I hope you had a great week. This week, we’re looking at former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan taking on the country’s deep state, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in a way conceding election defeat to his rival, Benjamin Netanyahu’s return as the Israeli PM and reported possibility of some sort of an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia or some other country in the region and the crucial midterm elections in the United States. Let’s get started.
This day that year
1995: Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli ultranationalist who opposed Rabin’s signing of the Oslo Accords.
1979: A group of Iranian college students overran the US’ embassy in Tehran, Iran and took 90 American diplomats and citizens hostage, starting the 444-day ‘Iranian hostage crisis’.
Khan and the generals
Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan survived an assassination attempt on November 3 during his protest march in Wazirabad. The 70-year-old was wounded in his right leg, but was stable and out of danger. Six others were injured and a party worker was killed in the gun attack. The nabbed gunman told police that he was acting alone, and had attempted to kill Khan because he “couldn’t tolerate” the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party chief “misguiding the people”. The conditions under which the alleged assailant made the confession were unclear.
Many people within Pakistan, however, aren’t believing the alleged assailant’s purported confession. They see the attack as a targeted hit ordered by the country’s “deep state” — the generals and the Pakistani armed forces. In his first speech following the attack, Khan himself claimed — without providing evidence – that the nabbed gunman wasn’t acting alone, there was another shooter and that they were working at the behest of higher powers. He also claimed that he had been tipped-off about the attack plan beforehand by insiders.
Khan went on to say that he holds Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and senior Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) official, Major General Faisal Naseer, responsible for the attack (the ISI leadership reports to the prime minister and the army chief — currently General Qamar Javed Bajwa). The Pakistani military’s media wing Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) and Sanaullah denied the allegations.
He also sought to put the military and the Sharif government on notice that there would be chaos if snap elections weren’t held immediately. While elections are now unlikely to happen this month itself, Khan was hoping that returning to power quickly would allow him to appoint the next army chief as per his liking when Bajwa retires at the end of this month and thereby position himself to rein in the military. This hasn’t worked in the past though. In 1999, former PM Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif’s brother, was actually ousted in a bloodless coup d’etat by an army chief (General Pervez Musharraf) he had appointed as per his liking by skipping other senior generals.
Over the past many months, Khan has been trying to rally the public’s support against the army generals and the deep state. His publicly-known dispute with army chief General Bajwa last year over the appointment of the ISI chief is now seen as the act that eventually led to the no-confidence motion Khan lost in parliament. Khan has alleged, without evidence, that his government’s collapse earlier this year was jointly planned by the generals, his political opponents and the United States. They have denied the allegation.
The Pakistani military is often considered as the most powerful institution in the country. It has ruled the country in some form — directly and indirectly – since at least the 1950s. Pakistan has seen a number of successful and failed coup d’états. Consequently, no Pakistani PM has completed a full tenure in office and governments have been quickly — leading to weaker democratic institutions and frequent phases of political instability. It’s widely understood that all governments especially since 2008, following the ouster of General Pervez Musharraf, have been formed with a nod from the military. Many are convinced that Khan was himself able to stitch together a government in 2018 only with the help of the generals. This also means that governments fall when the military decides to pull the plug. No political leader has been able to break the military’s dominance. Khan is now attempting to do just that.
By calling the Shehbaz Sharif government an “imported sarkar (imported government),” Khan has sought to skilfully harness anti-Americanism prevalent in parts of the Pakistani society for his use. Khan’s protest march, where the gun attack happened, was itself aimed at laying siege to capital Islamabad and building pressure against the military-dependent Shehbaz Sharif government — compelling it to call an early general election. The cricketer-turned-politician believes his party would do well if elections happen immediately. So, it’s obvious that the timing of this assassination attempt against Khan has raised questions about the motive and if ‘the establishment’ was involved in it.
This comes just weeks after Pakistani journalist Arshad Sharif was shot dead in Kenya in still-unexplained circumstances. Arshad was known to be close to Khan and was critical of the Pakistani army in recent times. His mystery killing had already led to allegations that it was a case of a state-sanctioned assassination and contributed to Khan’s narrative that military was actively working against him. “Arshad Sharif was target killed,” Khan told Daily Times, adding that it was he who urged the 50-year-old journalist to flee Pakistan to avoid arrest. Arshad was facing sedition charges. When Khan’s verbal attacks against the military reached a fever pitch, ISI chief Lieutenant General Nadeem Ahmed Anjum and ISPR Director General Lieutenant General Babar Iftikhar were forced to hold an unprecedented press conference to counter his narrative.
Pakistan has a history of political leaders being targeted — sometimes even assassinated — when they become too powerful, or are perceived as a threat to the deep state. Former PM Benazir Bhutto’s assassination is an example. It’s too early to tell if the attack on Khan was orchestrated by ‘the establishment’, as Khan claims. But it is certainly contributing to Khan’s narrative and plan.
Read: ‘Pakistan won’t quickly recover from Imran Khan’s shooting’ by Bloomberg’s Mihir Sharma (opinion)
Bolsonaro concedes defeat (kind of)
Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will return to Brazil’s highest office, having defeated rival and incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro in the bitter presidential election run-off on October 30. Lula’s victory margin was less than 2 percent — the narrowest in the country’s history. This shows how polarised Brazil’s electorate currently is.
For over a year, Bolsonaro — an admirer of former US president Donald Trump — had raised unfounded doubts about the voting system and had hinted that he may not leave office in case of an adverse election result. In August 2021, Bolsonaro had told his supporters: “I have three alternatives for my future: being arrested, killed or victory”. In the June 17, September 30 and October 27 editions of this newsletter, we had wondered if Bolsonaro would do a Trump by refusing to accept the people’s verdict and attempt a self-coup. This remained a plausible scenario even almost 48 hours after the country’s election commission formally declared Lula the winner. Some truckers supporting Bolsonaro had blocked roads across the country to protest the election result — causing a lot of disruption. Bolsonaro didn’t make any public statement about his loss until November 1, when he finally indicated that he’ll leave office and that he’s cooperating for a peaceful transition of power. Yet, Bolsonaro stopped short of conceding defeat or saying it in as many words. He told his supporters that only peaceful demonstrations would be welcomed, and assured them that their “dreams continue as alive as ever”.
Following a private meeting with Bolsonaro, the Supreme Court Justice Luiz Edson Fachin said the president had admitted that the election “is over. So, let’s look ahead”. But, some of Bolsonaro’s supporters held rallies calling on Brazil’s defence forces to intervene and help keep the far-right leader in power. It’s unlikely that the country’s military would make such a move especially after Lula’s victory has received public acknowledgement from various domestic power centres, including Bolsonaro’s own allies, as well as international recognition. Bolsonaro’s chief of staff later confirmed that the president had also authorised the start of the presidential transition.
While Bolsonaro is now the first president since 1997 to lose a re-election bid, the Liberal Party he is associated with has managed to hold control of both Houses of parliament.
Lula, the most prominent member of the left-wing Workers’ Party, will take office on January 1, 2023 and this will be his third term. But he’ll have to face an opposition-controlled parliament, a highly-polarised nation, an emboldened right and Bolsonaro who remains popular.
Read: ‘Who is Lula?’ and ‘what Lula’s victory means for the world’ by The Washington Post
Bibi returns
The coalition led by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has won a thin majority in the Israeli general election. Voting, in the fifth parliamentary election in four years, happened on November 1. Netanyahu’s Likud party won 32 seats in the 120-seat parliament called the Knesset. Allied parties have helped his right-wing coalition cross the majority mark of 61 seats and form the next government. Prime Minister Yair Lapid has conceded defeat. Netanyahu, nicknamed “Bibi”, is Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. However, one of the biggest takeaways of the election has been the rise of the far-right Religious Zionist Party, which bagged 14 seats.
Israelis have been dragged into general elections repeatedly in the past four years as fractured mandates made it impossible for any party to run a stable government. The outgoing broad coalition government led by PM Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid party comprised groups with varying ideologies — ranging from the centre-left Labor Party and United Arab List (mostly representing Israeli Arabs) to former PM Naftali Bennett’s right-wing Yamina party.
Read: ‘Will Israel’s Netanyahu lead or be led by Ben-Gvir, coalition partners?’ by The Jerusalem Post
Bibi’s win is likely to bring about significant changes to the country’s foreign policy. It’s being speculated that Israel may return to the possibility of conducting pre-emptive strikes against Iran’s sensitive nuclear facilities to set the latter’s nuclear programme behind by years, if not decades.
While Lapid’s government was also been critical of the US’ currently-paused negotiations with Iran to resurrect their nuclear deal, Bibi may show greater and more direct public disagreements with the Biden administration. This is a space that’ll be closely watched in the coming years. In 2015, Netanyahu had used the US Congress itself (despite then president Barack Obama’s opposition) as a platform to attack the original deal being negotiated at that point. While Lapid had opposed the US’ Trump administration withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, Netanyahu had praised the decision.
Lapid was seen as trying to balance Israel’s stand on the Russia-Ukraine war. Some observers even suggest that Tel Aviv tried not to antagonise Moscow. This was partly because Israel’s defence forces and the Russian military cooperate in their operations in Syria. As a result, Israel hasn’t supplied Ukraine with any weapons and has supported Kyiv with only humanitarian aid and equipment such as helmets. However, in an interview with USA Today, Netanyahu took a clearer stand saying he thinks Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was “guided by his vision of reconstituting a great Russian realm” and that he hopes that Putin reconsiders it. More importantly, the 73-year-old said he’ll “look into” whether Israel should supply weapons to Ukraine. He also expects being asked to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.
Read: ‘How will a Netanyahu-led Israeli gov’t impact Iran policy?’ by The Jerusalem Post
Iranian attack imminent?
Saudi Arabia and the US have shared intelligence reports with each other indicating that Iran may attack Saudi Arabia or other countries in the region soon, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week. Consequently, the US, Saudi Arabia and partner nations in the region have reportedly adjusted their military posture. Speaking with The Associated Press, an unnamed American official said it’s a credible threat of an attack “soon or within 48 hours”.
Why would Iran do that? It’s being speculated that the regime in Iran wants to deflect attention from the massive protests happening inside the country, triggered by the custodial death of 22-year-old woman Mahsa Amini. The protests have snowballed into a major civil unrest against the Iranian government. At least 234 people have been killed so far, according to non-profit organisation Iran Human Rights. Tehran has accused Washington DC of helping organise the protests, and Riyadh of interfering in Iran’s internal affairs through media. Saudi Arabia and Iran are regional rivals.
Pentagon Press Secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder and State Department Spokesperson Ned Price said the US was concerned about the threat situation in the region and confirmed that Washington DC was in touch with Riyadh. The US “won’t hesitate to act in defence of our interests and our partners in the region,” Price said. Yet, it’s to be noted that despite reports suggesting an attack may be imminent, the US’ embassies in Riyadh or other capitals in the region haven’t issued an alert for American citizens — as would be the usual procedure.
While the US-Saudi relationship has been strained in recent years, the two countries have maintained their deep security ties. Saudi Arabia is not a major non-NATO ally of the US but depends on the latter (and the West) for its security and defence procurement. The US has several military bases and thousands of soldiers in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Arabian/Persian Gulf region. The region’s stability and continued oil supply is also a priority for the US and the West. Even in 2019, the US was quick to deploy its Patriot air defence systems and some support personnel in Saudi Arabia after drone strikes (allegedly by Iran, or by Tehran-backed Houthis) on the Saudi oil infrastructure (but refused to respond with force).
US midterms
Voters in the US will head for midterm elections on November 8. Polls are being held to elect members for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives (Lower House) and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate (Upper House) of the US Congress (parliament). There’ll also be 39 state elections (to elect governors) and a number of other local polls on the same day. The state of the economy, inflation, immigration, maintenance of democracy and abortion rights are among the main issues on voters’ minds this time. Six states will hold abortion‑related referendums. Results will be known soon after.
The Grand Old Party (GOP), as the Republican Party is called, is widely expected to wrest control of the House and possibly, even the Senate. Currently, the Democrat Party holds a wafer-thin majority in the House and the two sides have support of 50 members each in the 100-member Senate.
US President Joe Biden is half-way through his presidency. But the future of his presidency looks grim. His approval rating has fallen to 42.2 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight — an American website focusing on opinion poll analysis. Some commentators are already calling on Biden and his Vice President Kamala Harris to announce that they won’t contest the next presidential election in 2024. The Democrats maintaining control of the Congress is vital to Biden’s presidency. If they lose control there, it’s likely to spell doom for his chances of running for presidency again. Meanwhile, a GOP-controlled Congress will make passing of key legislations he wants even harder. A win for the Republicans could also become the perfect launch pad for Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
For more, I’d recommend listening to the ‘US midterms: Republicans on the rise’ episode of The Rachman Review podcast (from The Financial Times)
Interesting stuff
“[Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's] vision is a 1970s dream Non-Aligned Movement, except the unifying feature is nationalist opportunism rather than a postcolonial awakening.” Karen E. Young writes in Foreign Affairs about how Saudi Arabia under MBS sees the world. Read the article here.
“Women, life, freedom.” Kim Ghattas wrote in The Atlantic last month about how a whole generation revolting against the Iranian regime will have repercussions extending beyond the country's borders. Read the full article here.
“It is optimistic to assume that this war is the dying gasp of Russian imperialism or that Russia, even under a different leader, will quickly abandon revanchism to become a stakeholder in European security.” Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman write in Foreign Affairs about why the US can't afford to write Russia off just to ease its own mind. Read the full piece here.
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