Privet! I hope you have a great weekend ahead, and certainly an exciting one if you are a Formula 1 fan (I’m really looking forward to the historic championship finale between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen).
This week, we’re looking at United States President Joe Biden’s “Summit of Democracy”, discussing the significance of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India and trying to understand why Nobel Laureate and Myanmar’s deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi is facing two years in jail.
But before we get started, I would like to thank and welcome all the new subscribers who joined us this week. I’m hoping that you like what you read in Untwined. Feedbacks are always welcome.
This day that year
1996: South African president Nelson Mandela signed a new constitution into law, completing the nation’s transition from apartheid to a democracy.
1948: The United Nations General Assembly adopted the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
Biden’s democracy summit
As I write this, US President Joe Biden is hosting the first two-day virtual Summit for Democracy. It revolves around defending common interests against authoritarianism, tackling corruption and promoting human rights. The Biden administration had extended invitations to 111 ‘participants’, a term carefully used to avoid controversy. You see, some of these participants such as Taiwan are not formally recognised as countries by the US. On the other hand, Kosovo is recognised as a sovereign state by the US but not by many others including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Russia.
It goes without saying that China and Russia weren’t invited (West sees Russia as “authoritarian” and China is a “one-party socialist republic”), giving impetus to speculation that the US is trying to cobble up an alliance of democracies to counter the growing Chinese influence — from a “Second Cold War” perspective. But there have been some surprising inclusions and exclusions.
Who’s in, who’s out: The big surprise was the invitation extended to Taiwan, despite Washington DC maintaining that it recognises “One China”, that is the People’s Republic. Beijing said that an invitation to Taiwan is “a mistake”.
Hungary, despite being a member of the European Union — an American partner — wasn’t invited. Similarly, Turkey despite being a NATO member wasn’t invited. It can be argued by some that this was done because the leadership in these two nations have shown shades of authoritarianism or undermined democracy. But as a major non-NATO ally of the US, Pakistan was invited. This ignored the argument made by some that the South Asian nation is at best governed by a “hybrid regime”. Islamabad, however, opted to skip the summit. This may be because of Chinese pressure or perhaps because Biden has not spoken with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan since taking office. Pakistan scores 4.3 (out of 10) on the democracy index, Bangladesh’s score is 5.9. Yet, Dhaka wasn’t invited. Of course, there is criticism that the condition of democracy in Bangladesh has deteriorated over the last decade. Sri Lanka, despite the power centred in the hands of the Rajapaksa family, scores 6.1 on the democracy index. Colombo wasn’t extended an invite.
Brazil and India have scores of 6.9 and 6.1, respectively. But the Global State of Democracy 2021 report published by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) suggests that both Brazil and India, along with the US itself, are witnessing ‘democratic backsliding’ defined as a “more severe and deliberate kind of democratic erosion”.
Participants invited to the summit have democracy index scores ranging from 9.8 (Norway) to 1.1 (Democratic Republic of Congo).
The point I’m trying to make is that the decision of whom to invite seems arbitrary and not necessarily based on democratic values. Of course, how do you define democratic values?
In his opening address to the summit on December 9, Biden said: “Democracies are not all the same. We don’t agree on everything, all of us in this meeting today. But the choices we make together are going to define, in my view, the course of our shared future for generations to come.”
“And as a global community for democracy, we have to stand up for the values that unite us,” Biden said without naming China or Russia.
Biden said that increasing dissatisfaction of people across the world with their democratic governments is in his view, the “defining challenge of our time”.
What role will these “participants” play in the future? And is this grouping perhaps built solely on a single nation’s global outlook and interests strong enough to “protect and promote” democratic values after all?
(Democracy index scores mentioned here are for the year 2020, as published by the Economist Intelligence Unit)
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: Here’s a satellite image of a strategic port located near a city situated thousands of kilometres away from any major land mass. This place was in the news this week. What place is this?
The correct answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Aung San Suu Kyi faces two years in jail
Myanmar’s former state counsellor (equivalent to a prime minister) Aung San Suu Kyi was sentenced to two years in jail on charges of inciting and breaking COVID-19 protocols. Suu Kyi was initially sentenced to four years in prison but the sentence was halved by the country’s military. Verdicts on other charges — including those of alleged corruption — are awaited.
She has rejected all allegations. Critics of the military junta claim that the charges are politically motivated and meant to keep Suu Kyi at bay. Suu Kyi, 76, has been under detention after being deposed by Myanmar’s military during a coup in February this year. The coup led to massive protests in the country. More than 1,200 protesters have died so far and over 4,000 have been detained.
“Aung San Suu Kyi’s guilty verdict has been guaranteed since Myanmar’s military detained her on February 1, and more baseless convictions and sentences can be expected to be piled on in the future,” Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch said in a statement. “The junta is using this sham court proceeding to wipe out all opposition to military dictatorship. Yet since the coup and Suu Kyi’s arrest, millions have taken to the streets to protest for freedom and democracy.”
Ukraine crisis: Biden warns Putin of sanctions
During a phone call on December 7, Biden warned his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that the West would impose “strong economic and other measures” on his country if it invades Ukraine.
Reiterating support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Biden told Putin that the US and its allies would respond with strong economic and “other measures” in the event of a military escalation by Russia.
Putin sought a “legally binding” guarantee from Biden that the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would not expand eastward towards Russia. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan informed reporters that the Biden administration had not agreed to giving any such guarantee.
Biden, however, is reportedly planning to involve NATO members in talks with the Kremlin.
The two-hour conversation between Biden and Putin was supposed to ease tensions and fears of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. But it looks like there was no breakthrough. Two weeks ago, we had discussed in detail about this latest Russian military build up along the Ukrainian border and Putin’s brinkmanship.
Putin’s India visit
India and Russia signed a number of defence and trade agreements as Russian President Putin visited New Delhi for the 21st annual bilateral summit. This was only the second time Putin has undertaken an overseas visit since the COVID-19 pandemic started. The two nations agreed to increase annual bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2025.
New Delhi and Moscow signed 28 investment deals, including in the areas of coal, steel, shipbuilding and energy. The defence deal will help India manufacture more than 600,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles. Russia said it was also interested in continuing to provide the S-400 air defence missile systems to India. Delivery of S-400 systems to India is underway (we had discussed this in detail in November).
For decades, India relied on the former Soviet Union and then Russia for defence procurement. But New Delhi’s military purchases from Washington DC have jumped in recent years. India has also joined the US as part of the Quad — aimed at countering China’s growing influence. Moscow perhaps feels that its relations with India may be loosening. Thus, Putin’s visit was seen as a significant step on its part to strengthen India-Russia ties.
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs’ statement on the summit can be read here.
Chancellor Scholz
Olaf Scholz, the Social Democrat politician, took over as the German chancellor this week from Angela Merkel. Merkel stepped aside after 16 years in office. Following the federal election in September, Scholz needed support of smaller parties to form a coalition government. These negotiations and procedures dragged on for over two months while Merkel continued as the caretaker chancellor.
Scholz, 63, comes with a lot of experience in governance which would come handy as he prepares to steer the country through the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact. The country is currently in the midst of its worst wave of novel coronavirus infections.
His government, which the Greens are a part of, also plans to tackle climate change by focusing on renewable energy.
Germany is a leading member of the European Union. Thus, the German chancellor always plays an important role in the functioning of the bloc. The EU’s latest challenge is the uncertainty stemming from the crisis on its eastern edge: the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine.
Interesting stuff
The Bad Guys are Winning: This long read written by Anne Applebaum was published online by The Atlantic last month. Highlighting the case of Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko, treatment of Uyghurs by China and the nexus between authoritarian regimes of the 21st century, Applebaum has tried to demonstrate how “the bad guys are winning”. Read the full story here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Pearl Harbor, United States. The Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam — comprising Naval Station Pearl Harbor and Hickam Air Force Base — is of great strategic importance to the US on its western flank. It’s located near the Hawaiian capital of Honolulu. Pearl Harbor was in the news this week as the US marked the 80th anniversary of an attack on the harbour by the Imperial Japanese Navy Air Service, which had dragged the US into the Second World War. The attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 led to thousands of casualties. About 21 battleships and hundreds of aircraft belonging to the US military were either destroyed or damaged.
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