Women in politics and Merkel's successor
Plus, a bit about ‘consensus builder’ Fumio Kishida — Japan’s likely next prime minister
Hello! Hope you are doing well this Friday. As evident from the headline, this week we are talking about women in politics. This is because of multiple unrelated developments in the past week that have brought women politicians back in the spotlight.
First, there is Angela Merkel. In 2005, she was elected as Germany’s first woman chancellor and has been governing the country for about 16 years. Running Europe’s largest economy, Merkel is widely regarded as the most powerful woman in the world. She’s stepping aside and her country seems to have found a successor (not a woman though).
Then there’s a significant development in Iceland. Voters there elected a new parliament comprising 47.6 percent women. Is that the highest? Certainly not. More about that in here.
This day that year
1949: Mao Zedong, the leader of the People’s Liberation Army, proclaimed the establishment of the People's Republic of China. Most of mainland China had come under PLA’s control by then.
1946: Verdict was handed down in the Nuremberg trials held after World War II. The International Military Tribunal tried former Nazi leaders for war crimes.
Merkel’s successor
Social Democrats, or the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (perhaps the only German I can read), have narrowly won the German federal election, bringing CDU/CSU party’s 16-year uninterrupted rule to an end. As we discussed in previous editions, German Chancellor Angela Merkel had announced earlier that she would step aside irrespective of the poll result.
It’s not uncommon for the country to have long-serving chancellors. Helmut Kohl from Merkel’s party held the position for just over 16 years too. Konrad Adenauer, the co-founded of the CDU, governed West Germany for 14 years. But with Merkel, it’s the first time an incumbent has step aside voluntarily.
The new government will most likely be led by SPD leader and Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Merkel has formally congratulated him for their victory. This will be the fourth SPD-led government in post-World War II Germany.
Emerging trends: German politics was dominated by CDU/CSU and the SPD. That’s changing. In an election partly contested on the issue of climate change, the Greens have picked up a near 15 percent vote share. But those votes are still largely coming from Germany’s urban centres such as Berlin, Leipzig, Munich, Stuttgart, Cologne and Hamburg. Unlike other Green parties in Europe, the German unit has previously been part of a government incidentally led by the SPD.
While the overall result shows a big improvement in the centre-left’s electoral performance, the outcome is being pegged as the conservatives’ worst ever.
The populist right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which did well last time, saw a marginal decline in its vote share and seats.
Government formation: The Social Democrats were part of the CDU/CSU-led outgoing government. But they are unlikely to take Merkel’s party onboard the coalition when they take charge.
While they have opposing views on a range of issues, smaller parties such as the Greens and the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) are now in the spotlight. SPD’s narrow victory margin means these two will be ‘kingmakers’. Arithmetically, even the CDU/CSU can form a coalition government.
Scholz has claimed victory, saying that Germans have given him the nod to form a “good, pragmatic government”. His rivals disagree. CDU General Secretary Paul Ziemiak earlier said that what happens next is about who is able to stitch together a coalition, and not about getting “an arithmetic majority”. The CDU/CSU has shown no signs of giving up. They’ll try to put together a coalition of their own.
The Greens seem to be more comfortable partnering the SPD. But the FDP has said it will hold talks with the CDU/CSU on October 2 too.
After the election dust settles and Merkel moves out of the picture, her successor – Scholz or CDU/CSU leader Armin Laschet – will have to steer the country for the next four years through the pandemic, its economic fallout and climate change.
State broadcaster Deutsche Welle has published the election result’s key facts and figures here.
So close, yet so far
Iceland (the country, not the supermarket chain) came very close this week to electing the first woman-majority Parliament in Europe*.
The governing coalition was expected to win the election and there were no surprises there.
Initially, it was believed that voters had elected 33 women candidates and 30 men. However, the tally was later revised to 30 female and 33 male candidates having made it to the Althing – the national parliament.
With this, women comprise 47.6 percent of Iceland’s parliament. The previous European record was held by Sweden (47.0 percent).
Ranking among the top-10 countries when it comes to gender equality, Iceland has had woman prime ministers (including incumbent Katrín Jakobsdóttir) and a president. Yet, it would have been (and perhaps still is) a significant moment for women’s representation in European politics and governance.
This following ranking table about the highest representation of women in lower chambers of parliaments across the world (assorted countries) may surprise you:
1st rank - Rwanda: 61.3 percent
2nd - Cuba: 53.4 percent
3rd - Nicaragua: 50.6 percent
4th (joint) – Mexico and United Arab Emirates: 50 percent
5th - New Zealand: 49.2 percent
43rd - United Kingdom: 34.2 percent
56th - Australia: 31 percent
60th - Canada: 29.6 percent
71st - United States: 27.6 percent
86th - China: 24.9 percent
100th - Ireland: 22.5 percent
137th - Russia: 15.8 percent
145th - India: 14.4 percent
(Source: Inter Parliamentary Union)
*European in the general sense of the word as Iceland is closer to continental Europe than to mainland North America. It is not part of the European Union, but has close ties with many European countries.
Japan’s next prime minister
On September 29, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) picked Fumio Kishida as its next leader. The party already has a majority in the National Diet, or Japan’s Lower House of Parliament, making it easy for him to replace Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga (as planned).
This will be Japan’s 100th prime ministerial tenure. The office was established in 1885 when the country was still an absolute monarchy.
Suga, an aide of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, had taken over the party’s leadership as well as the country’s top executive office about a year ago when Abe abruptly stepped down citing health issues. As Tokyo hosted the Summer Olympics in July-August amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Suga became increasingly unpopular. The country was under a state of emergency due to surging COVID-19 cases and the vaccination exercise was perceived to be slow. This forced him to give up his leadership position, both in the party as well as the government. The party scrambled to find a replacement, which they have found in Kishida.
Kishida, now selected by the party to replace Suga, has his task cut out. He’ll led the Liberal Democrats in the crucial general election slated for November – first in the Reiwa era under Emperor Naruhito. The LDP is far ahead in the race, according to opinion surveys. Remember, the Liberal Democrats are arguably the biggest political force in Japan having held power for the most part of the post-war era.
Despite Japan ranking high on the democracy index, its political sphere has been packed with uncertainty. Before Abe served as the premier for eight consecutive years, the country had seen six prime ministers in as many years (including Abe’s own earlier tenure). Suga quitting and Kishida taking over takes Japan back to the time of political instability. Kishida will have to ensure political stability.
Key facts about Kishida
The 64-year-old is considered a consensus builder and has said that fiscal consolidation would be a major element of his policy.
Instead of trickle-down economics, Kishida wants to focus on distributing wealth to households directly.
Despite the backlash from the Japanese public since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Kishida sees “small nuclear facilities and nuclear fusion” as an energy option. But he admits that “renewable energy is important”.
But like his predecessors, Kishida wants to cooperation with like-minded countries to counter China’s growing influence. He is likely to stay committed to initiatives such as the Quad also involves the Australia, India and the US.
Having previously served as the Acting Minister of Defence, he wants to enhance the Japanese Coast Guard’s capability to challenge China over the sovereignty of small islands in the East China Sea.
Incidentally, Quad leaders (including Suga) said last week that they will continue to seek adherence to international law to meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order, including in the East and South China Seas. Not naming China directly, the Quad said: “Our commitment to realise a free and open Indo-Pacific is firm, and our vision for this partnership remains ambitious and far-reaching.”
He is also credited with persuading then US president Barack Obama to make a historic visit to Hiroshima, the Japanese city devastated by a US nuclear strike in August 1945 as World War II climaxed. Kishida, who hails from Hiroshima, was then serving as the foreign minister.
What else?
Arab world’s first woman PM
Staying on with the theme of women in politics: Tunisian President Kais Saied appointed has Najla Bouden Romdhane as country’s next prime minister. This makes the 63-year-old the Arab world's first woman prime minister.
An engineer and a professor of higher education at Tunis El Manar University, Romdhane previously served in the education ministry in 2011.
She was appointed as the premier after Saied sacked her predecessor Hichem Mechichi in July, reportedly over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, and suspended parliament. Saied’s opponents see his actions as a coup.
On a winning note
About two weeks after losing out on a massive submarine deal with Australia (after announcement of the 'Aukus' defence pact between Australia, the United States and United Kingdom), France has struck a defence agreement with Greece.
French President Emmanuel Macron described it as a deeper “strategic partnership” between the two countries for shared interests in the Mediterranean region. But he also said that “Europeans must come out of their naivety”.
France will deliver three Belharra frigates to Greece by 2025, French state-controlled news agency AFP reported. There’s an option of a fourth warship as well. The deal is said to be worth $5.8 billion. UK and some other NATO countries were reportedly also in contention for the contract.
Greece spends a lot on defence mainly and is modernising its armed forces. One of the reasons is the rising tension with NATO member Turkey. Both countries have laid claims to offshore gas reserves in eastern Mediterranean as well as the Aegean Sea. They also stand on the opposing side of the Cyprus dispute. WonderWhy has explained the dispute in this video.
‘Pacman’ refocuses
Boxing star Manny Pacquiao has announced his retirement from the sport to focus on his campaign to become the Philippines’ president.
The 42-year-old, already the disputed president of the ruling PDP–Laban party (at least that of a faction), is tremendously popular in the archipelago nation. He’s hoping to leverage that support and lead the nation of 109 million people.
Pacquiao’s six-year Senate term will end next year. The ‘Pacman’ has already been projecting himself as the best candidate to succeed President Rodrigo Duterte, whose six-year non-renewable term ends next year. Pacquiao was once considered close to Duterte, but the rift between the two has been widening.
He is one of the most favourable presidential candidates, opinion surveys have shown. But Duterte’s daughter, Sara, is also widely expected to put her hat in the ring. She remains one of the most popular candidates, according to opinion polls.
Interesting reads
The Merkel era has ended. With Merkel set to step aside as Germany’s chancellor, Reuters has put out a series of graphics detailing how Europe’s largest economy has fared during her tenures spanning 16 years. Those graphics can be found here.
This May 2020 BBC Travel article by Kirsten Henton talks about ‘the Debatable Lands’ – a region located between England and Scotland. For 300 years, it was flourishing as an anarchic no-man's land. But it was too dangerous for either Scotland or England to want to control it. Read it here.
The New York Times' Ronen Bergman and Farnaz Fassihi have pieced together how Israeli intelligence assassinated Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, inside Iran in November 2020. The operation was carried out with meticulous planning and executed using an artificial intelligence-assisted remote-control killing machine. Read the full September 18 story here.
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