Hola! Wishing you all a joyous Christmas weekend. This week, we’re talking about Chile — the chilly-shaped country in South America, the COVID-19 surge across continents driven by the Omicron variant and continued instability in Libya.
But before starting, it looks like we’re fighting tech giants’ algorithms again. I’m aware that some of you didn’t receive last week’s edition in your primary inbox. The email went into the promotions or spam folders instead. This has been a common problem with a lot of newsletters. While there’s currently no way to ensure these emails land in your primary inbox, I’d like to remind you of a popular fix for this problem: manually move these emails into the primary inbox a few times when possible. Empirical evidence supports this jugaad.
This day that year
1979: The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan under the pretext of helping the communist government there in its fight against the Afghan Mujahideen.
1951: Idris I, the Emir of Cyrenaica, became the king of Libya. He was eventually deposed in a coup d’état by military officers led by Muammar Gaddafi.
Chile’s millennial president
Voters in Chile elected Gabriel Boric as their next president in the presidential election runoff on December 19. Boric, a 35-year-old, will be the South American nation’s youngest head of state (and world’s second youngest) when he takes office in March next year.
The election was closely contested. In fact, Boric’s rival José Antonio Kast from the far-right Partido Republicano had secured more votes in the first round in November. But Boric fought back to win with a margin of more than 10 percentage points in the second round.
Boric’s campaign focused on tackling climate change and sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, and plans to tax the rich more to fund his social welfare programmes.
Why it matters: The average age of Chile’s population is 35.3. That’s Boric’s age. While it’s not possible for a Chilean president to serve consecutive terms under the current constitution, having started early opens up opportunities for Boric to remain and shape the nation’s politics for decades to come.
That’s what he has set out to do. A former student politician, Boric supports rewriting of the country’s constitution implemented under dictator General Augusto Pinochet in 1980. The current constitution is seen as Pinochet’s dictatorial legacy. Kast is an admirer of Pinochet and had opposed drafting a new constitution despite 78 percent Chileans voting in favour of drafting a new one in a referendum last year.
It’s true that Chile is the second wealthiest nation per capita in South America and a relatively stable democracy. But internal challenges remain. Boric, who dislikes wearing ties and has tattoos, will be leading a deeply-divided nation. Expectations are high. Much of his political momentum comes from a wave of protests in 2019 against political elites over the cost of living, inequality and the free market economy. Yet, some of his positions are different not only to the ideological right or far-right, but also from the ideological left. Despite belonging to the left, Boric’s views on fiscal responsibility are more centrist. As a member of parliament in 2019, Boric supported the proposal to hold a referendum for a new constitution — an agreement that was rejected by politicians on the far left. He has also stayed away from Cuban and Venezuelan socialism and has instead tilted towards European-style welfare state governance.
Omicron ‘storm’
The World Health Organization’s European chief Hans Kluge has warned countries to brace for a “significant surge” in COVID-19 cases as the Omicron variant spreads unabated. The strain is already dominant in multiple European nations such as Denmark, Portugal and even the United Kingdom.
Spain and the UK have already reported their highest daily COVID-19 infections since the pandemic started. The French tally of daily cases is also nearing the 100,000-mark.
“We can see another storm coming,” Kluge told a news conference. “Within weeks, Omicron will dominate in more countries of the region.”
Nations respond: European nations are attempting to delay implementation of tighter restrictions until the end of Christmas and the New Year’s Day.
But the Netherlands has added tighter restrictions, and a lockdown. Germany and Portugal announced curbs and new social distancing measures that will be implemented after Christmas. Restaurants and bars in Finland will close at 10.00 pm on Christmas eve and for three weeks starting December 28, restaurants will be required to close at 6.00 pm with limited seating. In neighbouring Sweden too, restaurants and bars will be allowed to only serve seated guests. People have been asked to work from home when possible. Italy has banned all public New Year's Eve celebrations. Those infected with the novel coronavirus in England will be able to end quarantine after seven days instead of 10 if they test negative on the sixth and seventh day. This is being done to reduce stress on the healthcare system. But other parts of the UK – Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales – have already introduced new measures to tackle the infection surge.
How bad is it? The UK Health Security Agency put out “encouraging” findings this week, saying that people contacting COVID-19 through the Omicron variant are 50-70 percent less likely to require hospital care as compared to previously dominant strains.
The analysis is based on data from South Africa (where the variant was first detected), Denmark, England and Scotland. Yet, the agency warned that a large number of people could still need hospital care.
The chief of the Africa Centres for Disease Control (CDC) cautioned on December 23 that data from South Africa showing that Omicron infections are significantly less severe as compared to Delta shouldn’t be extrapolated to all countries. This came a day after researchers said that the Omicron-driven wave in South Africa may have passed its peak.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching (or not, this time): This satellite image shows a large city with a strait cutting right through it. It’s the only city to be situated on two continents (this gives it away, doesn’t it?). While it’s not the capital of its country today, it did serve as the seat of power for at least three major empires in the past — albeit with a different name. I know this one is easy.
The correct answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Libyan election postponed
The crucial presidential election in Libya, scheduled for December 24, has been postponed by a month, the country’s election commission announced. The international community sees the election as a step forward for Libya after over a decade of chaos and divisions. But the postponement now leaves the country at further risk of crisis and instability.
The north African country has been in crisis since a popular uprising overthrew and killed dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests. The country has since been ruled by various factions and warlords who draw power and support from various international actors including France, Turkey and Russia – all of whom have interests in the region.
The postponement of the election was expected, with a dispute over eligibility of candidates and rules. One of the key candidates is Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi who is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of committing crimes against humanity in Libya. Another prominent candidate is Khalifa Haftar, the eastern commander, who was part of Gaddafi’s military but played an important role in overthrowing him. Haftar is an unfavourable candidate for people in western Libya because of his role in the 2019-20 assault on capital Tripoli.
Tiananmen memorials removed
Three universities in Hong Kong have removed memorials for ‘June 4’ from their campus this week. These monuments were to mark the Tiananmen protests in Beijing that concluded on June 4, 1989.
The Chinese Communist Party doesn’t like any mention of the Tiananmen anti-government protests. The “June Fourth Incident” had resulted in the death of thousands of people (China has supressed the official numbers).
Unlike the mainland where authorities have banned memorials or commemoration of the protests, Hong Kong was for long a free region where such monuments and events were allowed. But Hong Kong’s democracy and the principle of “One country, two systems” — which allowed a great degree of freedom to the people of Hong Kong after the territory was handed back to China in 1997 — has been eroded in recent years.
The removal of these installations has led to an outcry.
Russia has ‘nowhere to retreat’ over Ukraine, says Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on December 21 that his country had no place to retreat amid a standoff with Ukraine, which is backed by the United States. Putin, addressing his military officials, warned that Russia would be forced to respond strongly unless the West stepped back from its “aggressive line”.
“What the US is doing in Ukraine is at our doorstep... And they should understand that we have nowhere further to retreat to. Do they think we’ll just watch idly?” Reuters quoted Putin as saying. “If the aggressive line of our Western colleagues continues, we will take adequate military-technical response measures and react harshly to unfriendly steps.”
Last week, Putin had pushed the West to provide binding security guarantees. Now he has called for the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization to respond to his proposal. Putin also had a telephonic conversation with French President Emmanuel Macron and new German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
We had discussed Putin’s brinkmanship in detail in an earlier edition.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Istanbul. It’s not the capital of Turkey (Ankara is). The city is situated on the continents of Asia and Europe with the Bosphorus Strait running through the city acting as the continental demarcation. Istanbul, called Constantinople until 1930, was the seat of power for the Byzantine/Roman, Latin and Ottoman empires. It is Turkey’s largest city.
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