Putin’s brinkmanship and German change of guard
Plus, Sudanese coup leader reinstates prime minister
Guten Tag! I’m hoping that you have a peaceful weekend ahead. The big story for us last week was Russia starting the delivery of S-400 defence systems to India and the dilemma it posed to the United States’ administration. This week, we’ll stick with Russia for a bit more.
Russia has deployed additional military units along its border with Ukraine yet again, sparking concerns in the West about a possible invasion of the Eastern European country which acts as a geographical buffer between the modern-day Russian Federation and the European Union (EU). Ukraine’s security is critical for the West. Is this Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bluff? We don’t know. But we are trying to understand what he stands to gain and if the brinkmanship is worth it.
We’re also looking at a number of other developments including the Sudanese coup leader’s about-turn and the new SARS-CoV-2 variant first detected in South Africa which could disrupt global pandemic recovery efforts. Of course, there’s lots more happening.
But before we begin, I would like to thank everyone who had kind words for the November 12 newsletter edition focussing on the new migrant crisis along the Polish-Belarusian border.
This day that year
2008: Terrorists launched coordinated attacks in Mumbai, India. Multiple locations including hotels, a railway station, a hospital and a Jewish outreach centre were targeted leading to a three-day siege in the country's financial hub. More than 170 individuals, including nine terrorists, were killed. The lone surviving attacker was given a death penalty and hanged in 2012.
Putin’s brinkmanship?
Recent increase in Russian military movement along Russia’s border has led to concerns of a possible invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. The US is sharing information about Russian deployments with its European allies to try and prepare a response to a potential conflict.
Ukraine has claimed that Russia has deployed more than 92,000 soldiers near its borders and may be preparing for an invasion by the end of January or early February. As history shows, Russians are adept at fighting in the harsh winter conditions.
Moscow has denied planning an attack and has instead accused Kiev, Washington DC and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) of creating artificial tensions (Ukraine is a NATO partner, not a member state). Russia has also claimed that Ukraine may be using the crisis as a cover to try and take back eastern regions that have been controlled by Russia-backed separatists since 2014.
The context: As a country, Ukraine was never really a sovereign entity for most part of history (except for a brief period after the First World War). It only came into existence, the form we see it today, after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. That’s where problems seem to have started.
While it is an independent country, there’s a large Russian-speaking population in the eastern regions such as Donetsk Oblast who want close relations with Russia. There is an increasing degree of secessionist sentiment there. The western parts of the country are dominated by Ukrainian-speaking people who want greater integration with the EU. This delicate balance was broken in 2013-2014 when then Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who favoured Russia, was removed from office after months of ‘Euromaidan’ protests over his rejection of the Ukrainian-European Association Agreement.
Russia sensed an opportunity and controversially annexed Crimea, a peninsula that was part of Ukraine, without any significant resistance. Simultaneously, local separatist militias politically close to Moscow seized control of eastern areas of Ukraine such as Donbas. It’s widely believed that they were directly assisted by Russian forces. European nations brokered a ceasefire in 2015 which stands till date, albeit with occasional flaring of tensions.
Ukraine remains territorially and demographically divided and unstable. Regions in the east are still under the control of these Russia-backed militias and Ukraine continues to not only maintain its claim over this region but also hopes to get the territory back some day. Of course, this is a simplified explanation and there are complexities to this situation.
The modern-day Russian Federation is territorially far smaller than what it was during the Soviet era. The leadership in Moscow – at least some sections – wants to keep former Soviet bloc countries such as Ukraine under its influence (just like Belarus). In fact, as recently as July this year, President Putin – a former Soviet foreign intelligence officer – called Russia and Ukraine “essentially the same historical and spiritual space”.
What does Putin stand to gain? There isn’t one clear answer and the cost-benefits of such an invasion are debatable. A successful military campaign may boost Putin’s popularity domestically as it did when Crimea was annexed. This is important for him especially at a time when the Russian economy has been hampered by Western sanctions.
Then there are geopolitical factors such as the Kremlin’s urge to defend the ‘Volgograd gap’. That bit is supremely interesting and is explained well by the Caspian Report in this video:
Yet, highlighting past escalations including one earlier this year, some experts suggest that these Russian manoeuvres are unlikely to result in a conflict. Putin is experienced at purposeful escalation and de-escalation of such crises. But, triggering a conflict is always risky and this level of brinkmanship may not always pay off?
So, why is Putin doing this? Some Western intelligence officials and Russians told Reuters that Putin may be using the threat of military force to demonstrate that he is ready to defend his country’s interests when it comes to Ukraine. Russia doesn’t want the US to supply weapons to Ukraine and definitely doesn’t want the ex-Soviet bloc country to join NATO.
Another variant
A new SARS-CoV-2 variant seems to have created panic just as we thought that we had a clear recovery path out of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
The B.1.1.529, first detected in a small number of cases in South Africa, is being investigated by scientists and the World Health Organization (WHO) will decide if it’s a ‘variant of interest’ or a ‘variant of concern’. It will then be assigned a Greek name such as Delta (this could happen later today).
Understanding the variant’s transmissibility and resistance to vaccines will take weeks, according to the WHO. To be clear, experts still don’t know much about the variant but what they do know is that it has a large number of mutations which could in turn have an impact on how the virus behaves. Such mutations generally make viruses more contagious. Infections caused by this variant have already been detected in Botswana, Hong Kong and Israel.
This has been enough for some countries to stop flights linking South Africa, or at least mandate a quarantine for individuals coming from the Southern African (and neighbouring) country. Is this a “rushed decision,” as South Africa's foreign ministry has termed it, or are these increased restrictions justified?
This is a developing story. We’re likely to hear a lot more about this in the coming days.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This satellite image shows two islands, both just a few kilometres in length and width, belonging to two different countries. Relations between the two countries have been acrimonious for most part of the last 70 years. At some point, the gap between the two islands was part of the ‘Ice Curtain’.
Additional hint: an imaginary (but useful) line runs between them.
The correct answer is at the bottom.
What else?
About-turn in Khartoum
Almost a month after the coup in Sudan, deposed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok struck a deal with the military leadership that saw him get reinstated. According to the 14-point deal, Hamdok will lead an independent technocratic government until elections are held. But the governance structure will remain under military supervision.
The Sudanese military had come under intense pressure from the international community to reinstate the Hamdok-led government. There were concerns that the coup could push the African nation further towards a major humanitarian crisis. Sudanese people had taken to the streets to protest the coup and more than a dozen died when security forces retaliated against the demonstrators. The United States, among others, had suspended aid to the country to try and push Sudan’s top general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to make the about-turn.
We had discussed the Sudanese coup (October 2021) in detail earlier:
Change of guard
Olaf Scholz, the leader of Germany’s Social Democratic Party, managed to put together a centre-left coalition. With this, Scholz will replace Angela Merkel as Germany’s chancellor next month. Merkel is stepping aside from the role after 16 consecutive years in power.
Scholz has been in talks with the Greens and the Free Democrats since the September election (we had discussed this earlier). While the country will get its first Social Democrats-led government since 2005, the shift doesn’t seem to be as dramatic. Scholz served as the finance minister in Merkel’s outgoing cabinet.
But he is set to face a series of challenges. Germany, like many European nations, is witnessing a new COVID-19 wave. He also needs to steer the German economy in the post-pandemic world. It’s also worth noting that as the German chancellor, Scholz will play an important role within European politics amid multiple crises brewing in Eastern Europe.
Sweden’s first female PM resigns after less than 12 hours
Magdalena Andersson, Sweden’s first female prime minister, stepped down just about 12 hours into the role after her coalition government collapsed.
Social Democrat Andersson’s decision to resign came after a junior coalition partner, the Green party, walked out of the arrangement. However, she informed the speaker of parliament that she hoped to be appointed again as the prime minister as a single-party government (subject to parliament’s confidence vote).
Until now, Sweden was the only Nordic country to have never had a female head of government. Andersson, 54, has served as the finance minister since 2014.
In one of the editions last month, we had discussed about women at the highest level of politics. You can read it here.
China downgrades diplomatic ties with Lithuania
China has downgraded its diplomatic presence in Lithuania to the “charge d’affaires” level. This is to protest Taiwan opening a de facto embassy in Lithuanian capital Vilnius.
Defying pressure from the People’s Republic of China, the Baltic country allowed the Republic of China to establish an office using the name “Taiwan”. For decades, China has actively pressured countries to not forge formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan – which is seen by Beijing as a breakaway region and not as an independently-functioning nation. For most countries trade and cooperation with China is important. So, they have largely agreed to not have formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan. As a result, Taiwan’s diplomatic duties are usually carried out from establishments designated as representative offices, not embassies. For example, the Taiwanese mission in New Delhi is called the ‘Taipei Economic and Cultural Center’ and India’s diplomatic mission in Taipei is called the ‘India-Taipei Association’. Note how these names say ‘Taipei’, not ‘Taiwan’.
Interesting stuff
What leads to a meaningful life? I bumped into this report published last week by the Pew Research Centre listing the sources of meaningful life, as perceived by survey respondents in 17 advanced economies. The think tank asked an open-ended question to nearly 19,000 adults across these countries.
Respondents in most of these advanced nations, such as Australia, France, Greece, Singapore and Sweden, said family as a source brings more meaning to life than anything else. Many of them said, if not family, it was ‘occupation’ or ‘material well-being’ that brought meaning to life. However, in Taiwan, people considered ‘society’ as the top source of a meaningful life. Along with South Korea, it’s the only surveyed country where ‘freedom’ featured in the top-five sources of having a meaningful life (both nations have hostile neighbours).
What’s more interesting is the contrasting view all of these countries have as compared to the United States when it comes to religion and spirituality. About 15 percent of respondents mentioned religion or God as a source of meaning in life, according to the report. In all other surveyed countries, that number was 5 percent or less. The full report can be read here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Diomede Islands. The island of Big Diomede (left) belongs to Russia and the Little Diomede is with the US. The international date line runs between them.
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