Hei! I hope you have a great weekend ahead. This week, we’re exploring how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shifted public opinion in Finland about joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The shift has quickly and definitively hastened the process of Finland’s de-Finlandisation.
And then, besides key updates from the Russia-Ukraine War, we’re also looking at the political instability in Pakistan where Prime Minister Imran Khan is losing support ahead of a no-confidence vote and Turkmenistan’s presidential election result.
Let’s get started.
This day that year
2014: The so-called Republic of Crimea was formally annexed by the Russian Federation, following the signing of the treaty on accession.
2000: Chen Shui-bian, the leader of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected as the president of Taiwan. This ended the Kuomintang party's 55-year rule in the island nation.
De-Finlandisation of Finland
Over the last few weeks, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, we have discussed how the war has changed the security architecture — especially in Europe — with countries now increasingly willing to do more to deter the Russian threat. And, in the February 25 edition, I’d quoted Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin as saying that “the debate on NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) membership in Finland will change” because of the recent developments in eastern Europe. We now know that it has.
Finlandisation
In global politics, the term “Finlandisation” refers to the process of becoming like Finland — politically. That’s because during the Cold War, Finland had allowed the Soviet Union to exert a substantial degree of influence in matters of its defence and foreign policy (and thus, on domestic politics). In return, Finland was able to retain its sovereignty.
Finland and Russia (and earlier Soviet Union) share a long border. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union didn’t want its neighbours to be close to the United States and NATO. Finland obviously realised that no great power would help defend it in the event of a Soviet attack. Thus, the understanding — through a 1948 treaty — between the Finnish political establishment and the Soviet Union was that Finland would remain neutral. Remember, Finland and the Soviet Union were involved in two wars before the Cold War: Winter War in 1939 and the Continuation War in 1944 — both leading to cession of some Finnish territory to the Soviets.
The country didn’t participate in the US’ Marshall Plan, didn’t join NATO, but also didn’t join the Soviet Union-led Warsaw Pact. There was also some level of self-censorship among Finland’s politicians and in the news media so as to not antagonise the Soviets. This balancing was Finland’s way of surviving next to a powerful neighbour. It was done to ensure there would be no Soviet invasion. But the term remains controversial and unpleasant for many Finns. After all, no one would want subordination of their country.
In the build-up to the war in Ukraine, it was reported that French President Emmanuel Macron had proposed “Finlandisation” as a path forward for Ukraine (though he denied proposing the model). In theory, it would have meant that Ukraine retained its independence but didn’t do anything that would make Russia uncomfortable (like joining NATO). But that wasn’t an option for Kyiv as it would have effectively given the Kremlin a say in Ukraine. Even people in Finland wish that no country should have to adopt the “Finlandisation” model.
After the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, “Finlandisation” lost relevance. The Scandinavian country joined the European Union (EU) in 1995, adopted the Euro currency and entered the Schengen Area — effectively integrating it with the rest of Europe. In the years to come, Finland — though not a NATO member — started participating in the mutual defence alliance’s military exercises. The Finnish defence forces possess modern Western military equipment (and have ordered the latest American F-35 Lightning II combat jets), making them highly compatible with those of NATO.
Shift
For about three decades, the Russian threat was only a possibility for much of eastern Europe. With the invasion of Ukraine, there’s now a sense of potentiality to it. As a result, public opinion in Finland about joining NATO has shifted significantly over the recent weeks. For the first time, a majority of Finns are in favour of joining NATO. An opinion poll conducted by state broadcaster Yle suggests that 53 percent of the respondents now support joining NATO. About 28 percent are against the idea and 19 percent said they weren’t sure. In 2017, the last time such an opinion survey was conducted by the state broadcaster, less than 20 percent of the respondents were in favour of joining NATO and a majority were against the idea.
There’s been a similar trend in neighbouring Sweden. According to an opinion survey conducted by Demoskop and for the Aftonbladet newspaper, a majority of Swedes are now in favour of their country joining NATO, up from about 42 percent before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Lawmakers in Finland met earlier this month to discuss the matter and a citizens’ petition seeking a referendum on it.
Finland and NATO
In recent weeks, Finland (and Sweden) have received better access to intelligence from NATO.
Earlier this month, United States President Joe Biden and Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinistö said their countries were deepening security relations but stopped short of saying that Finland would seek to join NATO or become a major non-NATO ally of the US. In a news conference with Marin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also said on March 16 he would welcome any interest shown by Finland in joining NATO.
The NATO membership process is long and can take many years. But as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this year, Finland’s (and Sweden’s) membership can be fast-tracked as it meets the alliance’s standards “in most areas”. “I think it’s quite obvious that since we are so close already, if the political will is there, then the whole process can move quite quickly.”
While accepting Finland into NATO comes with benefits such as improved surveillance along Russia’s western flank, better maritime dominance in the Baltic Sea and make it easier to defend the alliance’s Baltic members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, some members may see taking in Finland as escalating the ongoing crisis.
Obviously, Russia isn’t happy with Finland (and Sweden) talking about joining NATO. Moscow has threatened that Finland and Sweden would face retaliation if they do so. “It is obvious that [if] Finland and Sweden join NATO, which is a military organisation to begin with, there will be serious military and political consequences,” Russian news agency Interfax quoted Sergei Belyayev, head of the Russian foreign ministry’s European department, as saying.
You can argue that Finland had ceased being neutral a while back. But the public sentiment, and thus, the will of the political leadership, wasn’t ready to definitively tilt. Whether Finland joins NATO or not, it’s clear that the country is now on a clear track for de-Finlandisation.
Updates: Russian invasion of Ukraine
Leaders visit Kyiv: Prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia visited Ukrainian capital Kyiv on March 15 to expresses “unequivocal” support for Ukraine amid its continued invasion by Russia. The three leaders took a train from Poland, headed into the warzone and met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. Their meeting happened even as the Russian military bombed the Ukrainian capital. About three weeks into the war, Russia has been unable to take Kyiv.
In 2008, when Russia had invaded Georgia (another former Soviet bloc nation), the leaders of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and Ukraine had visited Georgia’s president Mikheil Saakashvili at a rally in Georgian capital Tbilisi in a show of strength.
Biden to attend NATO, EU summits: Biden will attend special summits of NATO and the EU on March 24 to discuss the situation in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the US president also called Putin a “war criminal”. It’s a serious terminology (more on that is available here). While the International Criminal Court is now investigating potential Russian war crimes in Ukraine, finding evidence linking a head of state directly to such crimes, holding a trial and convicting such a leader is a herculean and prolonged task. But more importantly, Putin being tagged a “war criminal” would now make it difficult for the West to withdraw sanctions against him, his inner circle and Russia if or when the conflict settles. This is because withdrawing sanctions against a “war criminal” makes for very bad optics.
Zelenskyy seeks global support: Zelenskyy, meanwhile, addresses parliaments of Canada, Germany and the US. He asked lawmakers in Germany to – in a reference to the fall of the Berlin Wall – help bring down, what he called, was a new “Wall” Russia was erecting in Europe. Zelenskyy urged US congresspersons to remember coming under attack at Pearl Harbor in 1941 and 9/11. Invoking American civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous “I have a dream” speech, Zelenskyy said: “I can say I have a need. I need to protect the sky”. He again requested the West to impose a ‘no-fly zone’ over Ukraine. The West, especially the Biden administration, has been clear that imposing such a no-fly zone is a clear path to “World War Three”. But the US did announce a new $800-million assistance package that would include 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 2,000 Javelin missiles, 100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems and 25,000 sets of body armours, and helmets.
Ukrainian ‘neutrality’: Russia has hinted that a “neutral” Ukraine, with its own limited military, would be agreeable. News reports suggest that talks between the two countries have advanced on the basis of this proposal. It would turn Ukraine into a neutral state like Austria. But some news reports suggest that Ukraine isn’t keen on this arrangement. Kyiv also wants other countries to guarantee that it would be protected if it’s attacked again. Last week, in what was a clear climb down from Ukraine, Zelenskyy said that his country was willing to not join NATO – if that helped stop the war. This week, Zelenskyy urged Ukrainians to recognise that Ukraine won’t join NATO. I’m not sure if this is the off-ramp Putin is looking for. I’m also not sure how “neutrality” is being defined and what would be the degree of such neutrality? How will it affect Ukraine’s non-military and economic cooperation with Europe? It’s also unclear as to what would be the status of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and Russia-annexed Crimea in the proposed arrangement.
Read: Ukraine and Russia explore neutrality plan in peace talks
Moscow forced to cancel UNSC vote: Russia was forced to cancel vote on a “humanitarian” resolution it was hoping to pass in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on Ukraine, after failing to garner co-sponsorship of the draft text from China and India, news agency AFP reported. Earlier, China and India had abstained from voting on resolutions in UNSC and the UN General Assembly condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Biden-Xi talks: When Biden talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 18, he was expected to warn his counterpart that the US is prepared to retaliate if China actively supports Russia. At the time of writing this, the details of the conversation the two leaders had were unclear. But news reports suggest that Xi told Biden that the conflict in Ukraine was in “no one’s interest”.
Beijing is seen as Moscow’s closest ally and has failed to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Any military assistance to Russia by China, no matter how limited, would contribute to escalation of the conflict.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: Belgium is situated between France and the Netherlands. Yet, this satellite image shows the only place where the French and the Dutch share a land border. Wondering how? Hint: it’s perhaps not where you think it is. What place is this?
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Political situation in Pakistan
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is likely to face a motion of no-confidence in the country’s parliament in about 10 days. The governing coalition, which is led by his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, already had a wafer-thin majority in the National Assembly. Now multiple parliament members from his party as well as from the coalition have jumped to the opposition side. The opposition has found momentum in recent weeks and has accused the cricketer-turned-politician of mismanaging the economy.
This is significant because Khan became the prime minister in 2018 and his term was supposed to end in 2023. Let’s remember that no Pakistani prime minister has completed a full term in office.
Human Rights Watch, an international rights group, has raised concern that the political situation “risks spiralling into a dangerous confrontation”.
Turkmenistan’s next president
Serdar Berdymukhamedov, the son of Turkmenistan’s leader Gurbanguly, has won the country’s presidential election. Serdar’s win was confirmed by the country’s election commission after an unusual delay in announcing results. The 40-year-old won 72.9 percent of the votes. His nearest competitor secured just 11 percent of the votes. Votes were still being counted and a final tally is yet to be announced.
Serdar, who is the current deputy prime minister, was expected to face little opposition in getting himself elected. Gurbanguly, 64, who has been in power since 2006, had announced earlier this year that he'll step aside and the power should be transferred to the next generation.
Turkmenistan is an absolute dictatorship with an overall score of 1.66 (out of 10) as per the Economist Intelligence Unit’s 2021 Democracy Index (in fact, the country is in the last seven ranks on the index), and Berdymukhamedov has faced little organised political opposition. No election held in the tightly-controlled country so far has been considered free and fair.
Council of Europe classifies Transnistria as ‘Russia-occupied territory’
The Council of Europe (not to be confused with the EU), a 47-state international organisation aimed at promoting democracy and human rights in Europe, has classified Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria as a Russian-occupied territory. Transnistria was earlier designated as the territory “under the effective control of the Russian Federation”. This is in light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Transnistria is a very narrow strip of land situated between the Dniester River and the Moldovan–Ukrainian border. The secessionist region, backed by Russia, is internationally recognised as part of Moldova.
Among other things, the Council is credited for getting death penalty abolished in its member states. Russia, which has been part of the organisation since 1996, also initiated the procedure to withdraw from the Council. This has prompted former Russian president and prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, considered a close ally of Putin, to endorse lifting the moratorium of capital punishments in the country.
Interesting stuff
“Consider that the entire flight time of this accidently fired missile was about six minutes. That is about the time available for the decision-makers in either country to take a call. Essentially, 360 seconds are all that are available to Islamabad and New Delhi between doing nothing or going to war, accidental and unintended.” Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow at Centre for Policy Research, writes in Deccan Herald that the recent missile misfire incident has raised serious questions and jeopardised India’s reputation in weapons safety. Read the full piece here.
Francis Fukuyama, the famous American political scientist, has predicted that Ukraine will defeat Russia in the ongoing war and, as a result, Putin will lose power. Read his 12-point prediction here.
Enthusiasts across the world have turned to open-source intelligence (OSINT) to track the latest developments in Ukraine. The near-live access OSINT platforms and social media handles give has changed how warfare is viewed. But it has its risks. Information being put out in the public domain may reveal military plans, strategies and risk lives. There are also growing concerns that countries are deploying their propaganda machineries, masquerading as OSINT analysts, to spread disinformation. Watch this video by France 24.
Modern warfare: The Ukrainian government had previously warned that the Kremlin may use deepfake technology to falsely claim that Zelenskyy had surrendered. A deepfake video (which has been debunked) was published by a Ukrainian news publication on March 16 and shared on social media, showing Zelenskyy asking his soldiers to lay down their arms. Ukraine 24, the news platform that published the video, said that its television channel and website had been hacked. Read this report by TheQuint’s WebQoof fact-checking unit for more details.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: The island of Saint Martin in the Caribbean Sea. The northern part of the island is part of France and the other (named Sint Maarten) is part of the Kingdom of Netherlands. Thus, this is the only place where the French and the Dutch share a land border. The French Collectivity of Saint Martin is part of the EU, but the Dutch constituent country of Sint Marteen isn’t.
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