Bonjour! Hope you had a fantastic week. In today’s newsletter we are looking at the United States’ big dilemma. Will the Joe Biden administration bite the bullet and sanction India for purchasing the S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from Russia or will it make an exception in view of an evolving strategic partnership?
We’re also exploring a potential thaw in tensions between Belarus and Poland in relation to the new migrant crisis in Eastern Europe. Of course, there’s lots more happening.
This day that year
1977: Egyptian president Anwar Sadat made a historic visit to Israel as the two nations began working towards peace following the Arab-Israeli war of 1973–74.
1969: Brazilian football player Pelé scored the 1,000th goal of his career. He's regarded as one of the greatest players of all time.
India’s S-400s and the American dilemma
Russia has started delivery of the S-400 ‘Triumf’ surface-to-air missile systems to India “ahead of schedule,” Russian government-owned news agency TASS reported earlier this week, quoting state-run weapons export company Rosoboronexport. ‘Triumf’ isn’t a spelling error.
This is significant because India had earlier requested Russia to speed up the delivery following the stand-off with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in 2020.
What’s this all about? The S-400 is considered one of the world’s most advanced air defence systems. It’s developed by Russia's state-operated Almaz Central Design Bureau. The system can track flying objects over a 600-kilometre range, and can engage with and shoot down these hostile targets using missiles in a range of up to 400 kms. These targets can be enemy aircraft, drones and ballistic missiles, among other aerial threats. Specifications of the units being delivered to India may vary.
The Indian government is convinced that the country needs these units for defence against aerial threats. India is squeezed between nuclear-armed China and Pakistan. In fact, China also has S-400 units and had reportedly deployed them near the LAC during the stand-off with India in 2020. So, Delhi signed the $5.4 billion deal with Russia in 2018. I had written about India’s S-400 purchase and explained its importance in an article for Moneycontrol earlier. It can be read here.
Here’s where it gets interesting. The United States doesn’t want countries, especially friendly ones, to purchase such products from “adversaries” like Russia (they also cite some technical risks). Washington DC was unsuccessful in convincing India to drop the deal. Now the Joe Biden administration is, according to US’ domestic law, required to impose CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions against India for purchasing Triumf systems.
There’s a precedent. In late 2020, the outgoing Donald Trump administration had invoked CAATSA to impose sanctions on Turkey for buying S-400s from Russia. This is important because Turkey is a member of the US-led NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). If the US can sanction its ally (some may point towards the widening rift between Washington and Ankara), it could certainly do so for non-allied nations in theory.
But in India’s case, the US government is facing a major dilemma. The country sees India as a major defence export market. Imposing sanctions on India would make defence cooperation between Delhi and Washington even harder. The US also considers India a “strategic partner” and the two countries have been building the Quad (along with Australia and Japan) to counter China’s growing military and economic might.
With this in mind, some US lawmakers have urged Biden to provide India with a waiver using provisions in CAATSA. As former diplomat Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty argued this week, the ball is in the US’ court.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This image shows a region that was talked about extensively a few years ago because of the conflict there. The land you see in the image is still a disputed territory. It was in the news this week when the country — a major military power — currently controlling the territory announced it would deploy a new paratrooper regiment there.
The correct answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Shades of bleu
A major country changed the colour of its flag and nobody, even most of its citizens, noticed it for a year. That’s what seems to have happened in France. Of course, it’s not as dramatic as I made it to be. French President Emmanuel Macron’s office has darkened the blue in the country’s flags flying around the Élysée Palace — the official residence of the head of state. It’s supposed to make the flag look closer to what it looked like after the French Revolution.
The Guardian quoted unnamed presidential aides as saying that the tweak was made in July 2020 but people have started noticing it now. Europe 1 radio first reported this on November 15.
The flag always had navy blue, but it was given a lighter shade of blue in the 1970s to reduce the contrast with the European Union flag which has a Marian blue background. The French and the EU flag are placed next to each other on most official occasions.
There's a debate about which version looks better. There are some who consider the Navy blue version to be more elegant. There are others who claim that the change highlights a rift between Paris and the EU. It's to be noted that the French government hasn't formally instructed the flag’s colour to be changed. But, does any head of state do anything without a deeper purpose, especially when their re-election attempt is five months away?
‘Playing with fire’
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned US President Joe Biden that American support for Taiwan's independence would be “like playing with fire”, according to news reports by China's state-backed media. Xi made the comments during a virtual summit with Biden earlier this week.
Responding to Xi, Biden said that the United States remains committed to the “one China” policy but the US “strongly opposes unilateral efforts to change the status quo or undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”.
Biden raised concerns about China’s “practices in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, as well as human rights more broadly,” the White House said in a statement.
Conversations that the US and Chinese heads of state have are interesting to track amid what some describe as the emergence of the new Cold War. We had discussed the US-China tensions over Taiwan in previous editions of this newsletter which can be read here and here.
Barbados’ new embassy
The tiny island nation of Barbados has announced it will open a digital embassy in a metaverse, becoming the first country to do so. It has reportedly signed a deal to purchase 90,601 plots of virtual ‘land’ to build an embassy that’ll open in January 2022.
What’s metaverse? Generally, it refers to the concept of a highly immersive 3D virtual world. People use it to socialise, play and even work.
Barbados has diplomatic missions only in a handful of countries. Opening an embassy in the metaverse could extend its diplomatic presence to more than 190 countries. Imagine getting a Barbadian e-visa through the metaverse embassy. Yet, there are some who aren’t convinced — mainly worried about unknown implications. It’s also worth wondering if the metaverse land used by Barbados be considered sovereign territory just like physical embassies?
A possible thaw
Belarus announced on November 18 that it had cleared many makeshift camps housing migrants on its side of the border with Poland. They were moved to warehouses inside Belarusian territory away from the border fence.
Members of the European Union have accused Belarus of trying to push the migrants, mainly from West Asia, into the bloc to create instability and a new migrant crisis in Europe. Polish defence personnel guarding the border had prevented a large number of migrants from entering EU territory for several days. But the friction had escalated tensions between Poland and Belarus. Clearing of these temporary camps is being seen as a step in the right direction as it would help cool tensions. Belarus’ neighbours had warned last week that the crisis could spill over into the “military domain”.
We had discussed this last week. Follow the link for a detailed explanation of the crisis:
Interesting stuff
Pressure cooker: On November 18, hundreds of thousands of students in South Korea sat for their Suneung, an annual university entrance examination. Officially called the ‘College Scholastic Ability Test’ (CSAT), the examination is used as a standardised test by South Korean universities. It usually takes place on the third Thursday of November.
The gruelling eight-hour marathon test comprises sections on Korean (language), English, mathematics, Korean history, ‘subordinate subjects’ like social studies, sciences and vocational education, and a second foreign language.
More than 400,000 young adults attempted the examination last year, including resitters. It goes without saying that it’s highly competitive and has become a very important marker in the South Korean higher education system. It’s so significant that on test day, public transport services are ramped up to ease traffic congestion on roads, aircraft are grounded for a while to avoid disturbing students and students running late can be escorted by police to their test centres.
I’m not sure if it’s fair to compare Suneung with the Joint Entrance Examination (JEE) in India. Either way, there has been a growing protest by students, parents and sections of the society who believe the high-pressure situation is affecting students’ mental health. Some say that the Suneung is focused too much on rote learning and requires a makeover. Here’re pictures from The Korea Times.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Crimea, annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014. Many countries still recognise it as Ukrainian territory. On November 17, Russia announced that it would deploy a new paratrooper regiment in the territory next month. The Kremlin has been complaining about a deal between the United Kingdom and Ukraine — which controlled Crimea until 2014 and still lays claim to the peninsula — to strengthen the latter’s navy. Strengthening of Ukraine’s navy is seen by Russia as a threat to its hold over Crimea and to its military dominance in the Black Sea.
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