Hello! Hope you have a great weekend ahead. This week, we’re looking at United States President Joe Biden’s Europe visit. Biden participated in summits of the European Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the Group of Seven (G7) nations, exactly a month after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, to discuss the war’s impact and to provide reassurance to security partners in light of the recent uncertainty.
And then, besides key updates from the Russia-Ukraine War, we’re also looking at North Korea’s fresh intercontinental ballistic missile test, Jamaica’s aspirations of becoming fully independent, the Egypt-Israel-UAE summit and Pakistan’s domestic political contest going down to the wire.
Let’s get started.
This day that year
1975: King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, credited for implementing reforms and a policy of modernisation, was assassinated by his nephew Prince Faisal bin Musaid. The prince was executed for regicide.
1957: European nations signed the Treaty of Rome to establish the European Economic Community. It's one of the two most important treaties for what is now the European Union (EU).
Biden in Europe
United States President Joe Biden is in Europe for multiple summit meetings and a visit to Poland — a key eastern European member of NATO. More than anything else, the visit is intended to reassure its European partners that the US remains committed to mutual defence amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting instability in the region.
On March 24, Biden participated in the special meetings of the EU, G7 economies and NATO in Brussels, Belgium. Here’s a lowdown of what Biden and his partners discussed and the key outcomes of the meetings:
G7 united on energy supply issue
Leaders of the G7 nations warned the Putin regime against any threat of the use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons or related materials. They also reiterated their resolve to “impose severe consequences on Russia, including by fully implementing the economic and financial measures we already imposed”.
The G7 leaders said in a statement that their countries were taking steps to reduce dependence on Russian energy and will ensure secure alternative and sustainable supplies. They committed to “actively support countries willing to phase out their dependency on Russian gas, oil and coal imports”. G7 nations also called on oil and gas producing countries to “act in a responsible manner and increase deliveries to international markets”.
‘Article 5 commitment is iron-clad’
NATO said the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the “gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades” and has “shattered peace in Europe”. The western military alliance condemned Russia’s actions and called on Putin to stop the war immediately and to participate in negotiations, and Belarus to end its complicity. NATO also warned that use of chemical or biological weapons by Russia would be “unacceptable and result in severe consequences”.
In a statement, NATO allies said they have stepped up their support for Ukraine and will continue to provide further “political and practical support”, as well as provide assistance in areas such as “cybersecurity and protection against threats of a chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear nature”.
The military allies said that their commitment to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty (common defence of all NATO members) is “iron-clad” and that they have placed 40,000 troops on the eastern flank of the alliance's territory, in addition to deployment of significant air and naval assets, as a preventive measure. The reaffirmed commitment to Article 5 is what some of the smaller NATO members would have been looking at.
US-EU coordination
In a joint statement, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Biden said the US and the EU are coordinating to ensure that their efforts on “temporary protection and humanitarian admission, including resettlement or transfers, are complementary and provide much-needed support to Ukraine's neighbours”.
They also said that the US and the EU are supporting the work of war crimes documentation experts who are gathering evidence on the ground in Ukraine.
The two leaders also touched upon combating illicit use of digital assets (including their potential misuse in evading sanctions) by Russia, ensuring cyberspace security, securing the global food chain, and partnering to promote democratic resilience and human rights in light of the war in Ukraine.
Biden arrived in eastern Polish town of Rzeszów situated close to the Ukrainian border on March 25. He is expected to meet personnel involved in the humanitarian relief efforts as well as US military personnel posted there, and call on Polish President Andrzej Duda. Biden’s visit to Poland is meant to reassure NATO members on the eastern flank.
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The chemical weapons red line: At a press conference at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, Biden was asked by a reporter what the US and/or NATO allies do if Putin uses chemical weapons. “We would respond,” Biden said. “We would respond if he (Putin) uses it. The nature of the response would depend on the nature of the use.”
This sounds like something former US president Barack Obama had said regarding the situation in Syria many years ago. Obama had warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that the US would intervene militarily if chemical weapons were used in the Syrian Civil War. After it became clear that such weapons had in fact been used, Obama sought the US Congress’ authorisation for the use of force. But the authorisation bill was never voted on and the intervention never happened after Assad agreed to turn in his chemical weapons stockpile and acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Putin and the G20 summit: In 2014, shortly after Russia annexed Crimea, it was suspended from the Group of Eight (G8) group of nations (now G7). But this time, Russia being removed from the Group of Twenty (G20) largest economies looks difficult. Some countries, like China, could veto proposals from the West to not invite Putin to the next summit Indonesia will host in Bali in November. The West would see excluding Putin from the summit as an added way of furthering his isolation, or making him an ‘international pariah’. But if Putin is attending, some other nations – especially aligned to the West – could boycott the meeting – throwing one of the most influential intergovernmental forums into crisis. Biden suggested on March 24 that if removing Russia from the next G20 summit was not possible due to opposition from some members, Ukraine should also be invited to participate in it. Reuters’ Angie Teo and Stanley Widianto have reported more on this.
Updates: Russian invasion of Ukraine
Kyiv stands: A month into the invasion, the Russian military has so far failed to capture Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government is still believed to be working out of Kyiv — though bombardment of the city by the invading forces has continued. In fact, there are reports that Ukrainian forces have managed to retake areas to the east of the capital as the Russian army has been forced to retreat a bit there.
Siege of Mariupol: Russian attack on the strategically-important port city of Mariupol intensified this week. Russia has managed to occupy Ukrainian territory connecting the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and the annexed Crimean Peninsula, along the Sea of Azov coast — except Mariupol. It’s now a siege, by definition. Taking Mariupol will allow Russia to complete the land corridor between the eastern occupied regions and Crimea. Plus, the forces would then be able to focus on other strategically key places like Dnipro city. The situation looks bad, and could get worse in the coming days.
Read more: Why Mariupol is so important to Russia's plan
Moscow rally: Putin used the eighth anniversary of his country’s annexation of Crimea on March 18 to hold a massive public rally in Moscow. It was reportedly attended by 200,000. According to a report by The Moscow Times, many were forced to attend it. The stage was plastered with the slogans: “For a world without Nazism”, “For our president” and “For Russia”. Live performance by popular Russian artists was followed by Putin's address — his first such public appearance since the war began. It seems that Putin's speech was intended to justify the invasion as a “special military operation” to stop what falsely claims was a “genocide” in Ukraine's eastern regions. Interestingly, Putin's speech was ended abruptly by state-owned Russia 24 television channel, which said it happened because of a technical snag.
Putin’s aide leaves Russia: Anatoly Chubais, considered Putin’s close aide, has quit and left Russia over his opposition to the invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg reported. So far, he’s the highest-profile figure in the Kremlin circle to do so. Chubais is believed to be in Turkey.
Others in Moscow who are hoping to leave will watch Chubais’ case closely. They’ll observe if he’s embraced and protected by the West for defecting, or punished for having previously potentially contributed to Putin’s ambitions.
Russian military deaths: A pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda has blamed hackers for planting a story on its website which said that nearly 10,000 Russian personnel had died since the war in Ukraine began. That figure was removed from the new article later. So far, Russia has formally admitted the death of less than 500 of its soldiers. Meanwhile, NATO claims the number may stand between 7,000 and 15,000.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This satellite image shows the largest city and part of the only Russian territory sandwiched between two NATO nations. It has a lot of strategic significance. What place is this?
The answer is at the bottom.
What else?
North Korea tests ICBM
On March 24, North Korea test-fired an “unidentified projectile”, believed to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), into the Sea of Japan, defence forces of Japan and South Korea said. This was the first full-capability test of the North’s largest missiles since 2017. ICBMs are quick and can cover a large range — spanning continents.
North Korea is believed to be trying to develop ICBMs that could potentially deliver nuclear warheads to any part of the mainland US. But such weapons also pose a major threat to Japan and South Korea — both of which have a mutual defence pact with the US. The last such series of ICBM tests had led to a major crisis between the US’ then Donald Trump administration and the dictatorial regime of Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang. After a few years of a self-imposed moratorium, Pyongyang said last year that it would resume such tests.
Another Barbados?
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness has told visiting British royals Britain’s Prince William and Duchess of Cambridge Catherine Middleton that his country wishes to address “unresolved” issues and become “independent”. The royal couple are on a week-long tour of former British colonies in the Caribbean region.
“Jamaica is as you would see a country that is very proud... and we're moving on. And we intend... to fulfil our true ambition of being an independent, fully developed and prosperous country,” Reuters quoted Holness as saying.
William didn’t address calls for removal of his grandmother, Queen Elizabeth II, as Jamaica’s head of state.
We had earlier discussed how Barbados becoming a republic by removing Queen Elizabeth II as its head of state could lead to a domino effect wherein other former British Caribbean colonies and Commonwealth nations may follow suit. Jamaica now seems to be exploring that option and has reportedly begun the process.
Egypt-Israel-UAE Summit
In a first, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi hosted Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi (and the de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates), Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
The three leaders discussed the economic impact of the war in Ukraine on West Asia. The three countries are also working to balance Iran’s influence in the region. They discussed ways to strengthen ties between their countries at all levels, the statement said. According to a Reuters report, food security and the stability of the energy market have come under focus amid the war in Ukraine.
Match going down to the wire
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has said he won’t “resign under any circumstances” ahead of a no-confidence motion expected to be taken up by the country’s parliament soon. Local Geo News quoted Khan as saying that the no-confidence motion against his government would fail and that he’ll “surprise” all a day before the vote (no idea what he’s talking about). Earlier, the cricketer-turned-politician had said that he’ll fight till the last ball of the match.
Many lawmakers from Khan’s party — the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf — have jumped to the opposition’s side. His party was leading a coalition in the National Assembly with a narrow majority. Opposition politicians and some of his own lawmakers have accused Khan of mismanaging the economy. Inflation rate has been on the higher side for most part of his tenure, and in double digits for a majority of his time in the country’s highest executive office. His comments such as — “I am not here to check tomato and potato prices, but to raise a nation” (said at a rally last month) — aren’t helping his cause.
His approval rating continues to plummet. Just 36 percent of respondents found Khan favourable, according to a Gallup Pakistan opinion poll conducted a few months ago. In the same survey, more than 60 percent of respondents said inflation was the biggest problem the country was facing.
Read more — Pakistan: Imran Khan and the politics of inflation
The Pakistan army, widely considered the most powerful institution within the country, seems to have withdrawn its approval it had extended to Khan’s government for more than three years. Relations between the army and Khan have been frosty especially over the last year.
Khan became Pakistan’s prime minister in 2018 and his term is supposed to end in 2023. No no-confidence motion brought against a Pakistani prime minister has ever succeeded, even though no Pakistani prime minister has ever completed a full term in office.
Interesting stuff
“The more powerful [Chinese President Xi Jinping] becomes and the more direct authority he exerts over Beijing’s foreign policy, the more adverse the outcomes are for China’s long-term strategic interests.” Jude Blanchette, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues that the Chinese president being unconstrained and acting as a nationalist autocrat having a pessimistic outlook of his country’s security environment, “makes for a potentially volatile period ahead”. Read the full piece here.
On a related note, Nikkei Asia’s Marrian Zhou and Tsukasa Hadano explored last week if Xi is a player in foreign policy or did he just get played in the context of the war in Ukraine. Days before the war began, China and Russia said they had a “limitless” partnership. Now, that resolve is being tested. The way the war in Ukraine plays out will have consequences for Beijing, China-Russia ties and Xi himself. Read the long piece here.
The New York Times’ Andrew Kramer has pieced together how Ukraine’s air force, though outgunned, is still fighting back against Russian fighter jets.
For the first time, researchers have found microplastics in human blood. The discovery shows these particles can travel around the body and may accumulate in organs. Scientists suggest that the impact of microplastics in human blood on our health is still unknown and further research would be required. Read the full story here.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: The exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast. This Russian territory is sandwiched between Lithuania to the north and Poland to the south. The Baltic Sea is to its west. While other republics of the Soviet Union declared independence when the country collapsed, Kaliningrad didn’t. It remained a part of what became the Russian Federation. There are concerns in the West that if Russia attacks NATO’s Baltic members (like Lithuania), it would prioritise taking control of the Suwalki Corridor — the narrow strip of land that connects Poland and Lithuania. For NATO, the corridor is essential to move soldiers and resources from western Europe into the Baltic region (NATO obviously can’t use territory of Russia-aligned Belarus). If Russia is able to get control of the corridor, it would cut-off the only land connection between NATO’s Baltic members and the rest.
Read more: NATO Must Prepare to Defend Its Weakest Point — the Suwalki Corridor
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