Hej! I hope you are set to have an exciting weekend ahead. This week we are focusing on Cambodia’s authoritarian leader Hun Sen positioning his son as his successor and the panic that the new Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant has spread across the world.
But we’re also looking at why Barbados becoming a republic is significant, challenges ahead of Sweden’s first (and effectively the second) female prime minister and the unrest in the Solomon Islands where one of the causes has something to do with China and Taiwan (apologies for always being able to squeeze in Beijing and Taipei somehow).
This day that year
1984: A gas leak at the Union Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India, resulted in thousands of deaths. It's considered one of the world's worst industrial disasters.
All in the family
Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen announced on December 2 that he’s backing his eldest son, Hun Manet, to succeed him as the Southeast Asian nation’s leader. “I have not been training him to be the leader of a gang of thieves. To be clear, Hun Manet is one among the candidates to become the next prime minister, and his father is fully supporting him,” Hun Sen said at an event.
Hun Manet, 44, who graduated from the United States’ top military academy West Point holds the rank of lieutenant general. He’s the Cambodian army chief and deputy commander of the country’s armed forces. But he also holds other key positions in Cambodia’s intelligence-defence system such as the chief of counterterrorism and the deputy commander of his father’s protection unit.
Hun Sen is 69 years old and has hinted that he’ll step down as the prime minister in 2028. But to avoid accusations of nepotism and autocracy, he has said that Hun Manet could become the prime minister subject to an election instead of a direct transfer of power. But the fairness of any such election is questionable. Here’s why.
Why this is significant: At best, Hun Sen is seen as an authoritarian leader. He has been in power almost uninterrupted since 1984, assuming various roles such as the prime minister, the co-prime minister and second prime minister, at the highest executive level. This makes him one of the longest-serving world leaders. Even though the country is a constitutional monarchy currently led by Norodom Sihamoni, it is Hun Sen that holds the levers of power as the nation’s executive chief. Cambodia is ranked 130th in the Economist Intelligence Unit's ‘Democracy Index’.
Over the last 36 years, Hun Sen and his Cambodian People's Party have allegedly consolidated power by using violence and repression, including against opposition political leaders, according to Human Rights Watch. For this, the United States has imposed sanctions, which have been dismissed by Cambodia as ‘politically motivated’.
Hun Sen’s CPP currently holds all of the 125 seats in the National Assembly (Lower House) and 58 of the 62 seats in the Senate (Upper House) of Parliament. There simply isn’t any opposition to his rule. Elections, used by the strongman to remain in power, have been described as sham by human rights groups. Cambodia remains a key component of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and a partner for China.
Omicron panic
The Omicron variant of the novel coronavirus has led to a big surge in COVID-19 cases in South Africa, where the variant was first detected. Many fear that the new variant is quickly becoming the dominant strain there and it’s spread in other countries could be even more disastrous at a time when the world is attempting a return to normalcy. There’s panic.
It was only a week ago that the World Health Organization (WHO) formally said that Omicron was a ‘variant of concern’. That has, perhaps rightly, led countries to impose new travel restrictions, and update testing and quarantining procedures. Dozens of countries have reported infections caused by the new variant, which scientists are still studying. WHO too has advised all countries to prepare for an Omicron-led surge of coronavirus infections. Adam Taylor has argued in The Conversation that it’s too early to panic about COVID-19 vaccines and the Omicron variant.
More research is needed to understand the efficacy of vaccines on the new variant. But the strain has been spreading quickly through southern (and potentially other parts of) Africa where COVID-19 vaccination numbers remain low due to lack of supply, even as the West has been rolling out booster doses. Only 24 percent of South Africans are currently vaccinated against COVID-19 as compared to 3.3 percent in neighbouring Zambia, according to data collated by Our World in Data. The figure is 33 percent in India and 88 percent in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In another African nation of South Sudan, the number is still 1.1 percent — roughly a year after the West started granting emergency use authorisations to COVID-19 vaccines. The recent rise in COVID-19 cases among the unvaccinated, especially in Germany and the rest of Europe, demonstrates the need for vaccines to be made available quickly in large numbers to middle- and low-income nations. It’s also true that South Korea, which has a very large section of its population fully vaccinated, is witnessing spikes in new COVID-19 cases. But are these cases being detected primarily among the elderly and the unvaccinated?
(Vaccination figures mentioned above are as of varying dates ranging between November 11 and December 2, 2021)
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: Here are satellite images of three cities — Brasilia, Naypyidaw and Putrajaya. What’s the common link among these three places?
The correct answer is at the bottom.
What else?
A new republic
At the stroke of the midnight hour, Barbados ditched Queen Elizabeth II as its head of state and became a republic. It appointed the governor-general Sandra Mason as its first president and the new head of state. This is significant because it’s for the first time a Commonwealth nation has declared itself a republic since Mauritius in 1992. Some believe that the Caribbean island’s action may have a domino effect and more Commonwealth nations that still have the British monarch as the titular head of state will follow suit. There are quite a few including Australia, Canada and New Zealand among the bigger nations and Jamaica, Tuvalu and The Bahamas among the smaller nations.
In fact, Australia had held a republic referendum in 1999 in which about 55 percent of the voters had opted to retain the monarchy. There’s a republican movement in Canada and New Zealand as well.
Andersson returns
Last week we talked about Magdalena Andersson, the first female prime minister of Sweden, who stepped down within 12 hours of assuming the role. She had resigned after the Swedish Parliament’s rejection of her Budget proposal prompted her Social Democrats party’s junior coalition partner, the Greens, to withdraw support.
Now Andersson is back as the prime minister with a new single-party minority government and a new Cabinet. But because it’s a minority government, she is likely to face difficulty in passing legislations in the unicameral 349-member Riksdag (Parliament). The next general election is scheduled for September 2022.
Solomon Islands unrest
Last week, we briefly touched upon how Lithuania, a country with a population of less than three million, had resisted pressure from Beijing and allowed Taipei to open a de facto embassy under the name “Taiwan” instead of something like ‘Taipei Economic and Cultural Center’. I would like to draw your attention to another unrelated, yet related, situation in the Solomon Islands.
The island nation in the Pacific Ocean, situated off the eastern coast of Australia and Papua New Guinea, witnessed widespread unrest this week. Riots led to at least three deaths and caused damages worth millions of dollars.
The archipelago is home to just over 685,000 people who are dependent on exports of rough wood, palm oil and fisheries. But the picturesque island nation has had a history of ethnic violence. The latest riots in capital Honiara were reportedly triggered by a range of issues including growing unemployment, local grievances and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.
Most of the protesters in the capital city were reportedly from the neighbouring province of Malaita — the nation’s most populous island. Citizens of Malaita have been complaining that the Honiara-based central government hasn’t been doing enough for them.
In 2019, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare diplomatically recognised the People’s Republic of China and withdrew recognition the country had granted to Taiwan. However, the local government in Malaita continued to recognise Taiwan and received aid from the United States. Last year, to protest the central government’s decision, Malaita’s provincial chief Daniel Suidani pushed for an independence referendum (but it was rejected by the central government). This unresolved issue also continues to raise tensions between the people of Malaita province and the central government. As a result, protesters also targeted Chinese businesses and burned buildings in Honiara's Chinatown district. They also tried to burn down PM Sogavare’s residence and storm the parliament.
Australia, Fiji and New Zealand have sent peacekeepers to assist the Solomon Islands police force to restore law and order. A similar Australia-led international peace mission had managed to maintain peace in the Solomon Islands between 2003 and 2017.
Interesting stuff
The other liquid gold
Countries including China, India and the United States announced last week that they would tap into their strategic oil reserves to boost petroleum supply. This unprecedented action was aimed at easing energy prices (to some extent) and pushing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and a few other producers, to pump more oil.
Strategic oil reserves are stockpiles of crude oil held by a country for emergencies such as wars or major natural calamities. In fact, this was the first time India released oil from its strategic reserves — it’s that important to New Delhi.
There was a similar development this week. Except that this time, a country wasn’t tapping into its oil reserves, instead opening its strategic maple syrup reserves. There are no prizes for guessing that this country is Canada (the only nation with a maple leaf on its flag).
Amid high global demand and a short and warm harvest season, maple syrup makers in Canada have been forced to tap into their rainy-day reserves. The country exports maple syrup products worth more than $350 million annually and about 70 percent of the world’s maple syrup production happens in the province of Quebec alone.
The Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers – often termed the “OPEC of maple syrup” — is releasing about 50 million pounds of its “liquid gold” reserves. That’s said to be half of the total stockpile capacity.
Necessary protection
Last weekend, Czech President Miloš Zeman administered the oath of office to the country's new prime minister Petr Fiala. Zeman was forced to stay behind the glass partition as he had tested positive for COVID-19.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: All three are purpose-built capital cities. Brasilia, Naypyidaw and Putrajaya are the administrative capitals of Brazil, Myanmar and Malaysia, respectively.
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