Hello! I hope you had a great week. In this edition, we’re looking at the key takeaways from the Group of Twenty (G20) leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesia; former United States president Donald Trump launching his 2024 election bid; US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping’s big meeting; how a missile strike on NATO territory led to concerns of a significant escalation of the war in eastern Europe.
As Qatar hosts the football world cup starting this weekend, we’re also looking at why the tiny country is being accused of “sportswashing”.
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This day that year
2002: United Nations weapons inspectors arrived in Iraq amid the disarmament crisis. The crisis eventually led to the United States-led invasion of Iraq a few months later.
1918: Latvia declared its independence from Russia.
G20 takeaways
War in Ukraine
Leaders of the Group of Twenty (G20) nations failed to unanimously condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine in their joint declaration. The wording of the Bali Declaration stopped short of condemnation of Russia to perhaps accommodate the continued positions of China and India and their partnership with Moscow. However, they called for an end to human suffering and peaceful resolution of the dispute, underlining the war’s impact on the global economy.
“Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy — constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and elevating financial stability risks,” the declaration read.
Ensuring that nuclear weapons aren’t used in eastern Europe or anywhere else in the world is one area where Beijing is on the same page as the West. “The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and dialogue, are vital. Today’s era must not be of war,” the leaders agreed — echoing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s earlier message to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Economy
The bloc, representing 80 percent of the global gross domestic product, agreed “to promote food and energy security and support stability of markets, providing temporary and targeted support to cushion the impact of price increases, strengthening dialogue between producers and consumers, and increasing trade and investments for long-term food and energy security needs, resilient and sustainable food, fertilizer and energy systems”.
They also promised to push more investments in low- and middle-income and other developing economies.
Energy
Recognising the ongoing volatility in energy prices and markets “and shortage/disruptions to energy supply,” the leaders highlighted the urgency to quickly diversify and transform energy systems, push for energy security and resilience, and markets stability “by accelerating and ensuring clean, sustainable, just, affordable, and inclusive energy transitions and flow of sustainable investments”.
Climate change
The G20 nations reaffirmed their commitments to tackling anthropogenic climate change through “full and effective implementation” of the 2015 Paris Agreement. They recognised that the fight against climate change would have to reflect “equity” and the ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ principle, and “respective capabilities in light of different national circumstances”.
Read the full G20 Bali leaders’ declaration here
Biden-Xi meeting
US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping held an important bilateral meeting on the side-lines of the G20 summit. This was their first face-to-face meeting after the former became the president and the latter’s precedent-breaking re-election. This meeting was more significant than usual because it followed their heated telephonic conversation in July, where Xi warned Washington DC against “playing with fire” over the Taiwan dispute and Biden reiterated the US’ strong objection to unilateral changes to the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Regular diplomatic contact between Washington DC and Beijing had also been disrupted amid the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis in August.
Tensions between China and the US have escalated in recent years as the great power competition between them intensifies and becomes more pronounced. Even on the Russian invasion of Ukraine — one of the most pressing global crises at the moment – the two countries stand on opposing sides, with the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) openly and actively assisting Ukraine and China stopping short of condemning the war initiated by its “limitless” ally.
Observers suggest the two leaders employed a warmer tone this time.
Read more: Biden-Xi talks mark shift in US-China ties toward managing fierce competition
Readouts from the White House and the Chinese foreign ministry suggest Biden and Xi had a candid conversation about a range of issues. Biden told Xi that Chinese actions towards Taiwan were “increasingly aggressive” while still reiterating his country’s long-standing ‘One China’ policy and opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo. Xi told Biden, according to his foreign ministry’s readout, that the “Taiwan question is at the very core of China’s core interests, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-US relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed” in their relationship.
Seemingly referring to the US’ latest National Security Strategy, Beijing said that “the so-called ‘democracy versus authoritarianism’ narrative is not the defining feature of today’s world, still less does it represent the trend of the times”.
“Suppression and containment will only strengthen the will and boost the morale of the Chinese people,” the Chinese foreign ministry suggested in the readout.
However, Biden reiterated that the competition between the two nations shouldn’t “veer into conflict” and said they “must manage the competition responsibly and maintain open lines of communication”. On similar lines, China’s statement suggested that the US-China relationship shouldn’t be a “zero-sum game where one side out-competes or thrives at the expense of the other”.
Biden and Xi also agreed that a nuclear war “should never be fought and can never be won,” highlighting their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
The two leaders agreed that they must work together in areas such as climate change, public health. macroeconomic stability and global food security, according to the readouts. Additionally, they agreed to maintain lines of strategic communication to manage the competition.
The White House and the Chinese foreign ministry's readouts can be read here and here, respectively.
Trump’s 2024 bid
The worse-than-expected performance of the Republican Party in the recent midterm elections didn’t hold back former US president Donald Trump from launching his 2024 presidential election bid, this week. Many Trump-backed candidates faced a drubbing in the midterms, hurting the party’s chances of securing comfortable majorities in both Houses. Trump, who faces several legal challenges and who is accused of inciting the Capitol insurrection to overturn the 2020 presidential election result, is the first major contender to launch a campaign. While there is a long way ahead before his Republican Party picks a nominee, Trump is hoping to pre-empt potential party rivals such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Many large Republican donors reportedly want Trump to make way for DeSantis or someone else.
In his announcement speech, Trump, 76, promised to tackle high inflation and rising energy prices, taking the “economic security is national security” line. These are the very problems that have brought the incumbent Biden administration under pressure.
The Republicans this week also failed to take control of the Senate (Upper House of parliament) as the Democrats won a seat in Nevada, as the midterms counting continued. This renders the runoff election in Georgia redundant as far as control of the Senate is concerned. The Republicans, however, were on track to gain control of the House of Representatives (Lower House).
Recap — US midterms: The ‘red ripple’ the Republicans created, instead of the ‘red wave’ they had predicted
Missile strike in Poland leads to a scare
The Russia-Ukraine war spilled over into NATO territory on November 15 after a missile struck a border village in eastern Poland. At least two people were killed. Poland is a NATO member.
Here’s what we know so far:
Polish President Andrzej Duda initially said the missile was “most probably” Russian-made but stressed that this was still being verified. A senior unnamed US intelligence official had also told The Associated Press that it was a Russian missile that had crossed into Poland. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called it “a very significant escalation”.
Russia said it had nothing to do with the missile strike.
Leaders of Group of Seven (G7) and NATO members quickly held an emergency meeting on the side-lines of the G20 summit in Bali. US President Biden said that while investigation was on, based on the missile’s trajectory, it was “unlikely” to have been fired from Russia. Three unnamed US officials later told The Associated Press based on preliminary assessment that the missile had been fired by Ukraine towards an incoming Russian missile. However, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba accused Russia of spreading a “conspiracy theory” that an alleged Ukrainian air defence missile landed in Poland.
The incident sent NATO into a huddle, leading to a scare that Poland may see this as a hostile act and could trigger either Article 4 or Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty that governs NATO, thereby potentially escalating the war. Article 4 calls for consultations when any NATO member feels their territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened. Article 5 paves the way for an agreement that an armed attack against one or more members to be considered an attack against them all, and enables NATO members to use collective force for self-defence and to repel aggression. While NATO investigated the incident, the Polish military and the military alliance remained on high alert.
On November 16, Polish President Duda said that “Ukraine’s defence was launching their missiles in various directions, and it is highly probable that one of these missiles unfortunately fell on Polish territory”. He said there was “absolutely nothing” to conclude that it was an intentional attack.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed Duda’s statement, saying that the military alliance had “no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack and we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO”. Stoltenberg, however, sought to place the ultimate responsibility of the incident on Russia, saying: “Let me clear: this is not Ukraine's fault. Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”
Ukraine disputed the findings, denied that it was its misfire and insisted it wasn’t to blame for the incident. On November 17, Zelenskyy acknowledged that his forces had fired an air defense missile. “I don’t know what happened. We don’t know for sure. The world does not know. But I am sure that it was a Russian missile, I am sure that we fired from air defense systems,” Zelenskyy said.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov praised Washington DC’s “measured and more professional response” that seemingly helped dial back the tensions.
Sportswashing?
Qatar will host the football world cup starting November 20. The month-long tournament, considered the pinnacle of football, will see participation from 32 national teams. The tiny Gulf state with a population of just under three million (less than Argentine capital Buenos Aires or Spanish capital Madrid) is hoping to put up a show. It’s the first time the football world cup is happening in West Asia or in a Muslim-majority country. But the stunning new stadiums and all the brouhaha about Qatari experience also has a murky side to it. Critics are calling Qatar’s hosting of the mega tournament an attempt at “sportswashing”. Sportswashing refers to the practice of governments, groups or individuals using sporting events to improve their global reputation damaged by wrongdoing.
There are a number of problems including the country’s mistreatment of the LGBT+ community, and poor working and living conditions and deaths of thousands (number disputed) of vulnerable migrant construction workers. More than 6,500 migrant workers from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka alone had died in Qatar since it secured the rights to host the world cup in late 2010, The Guardian reported in early 2021. The total death toll is reportedly higher as the numbers from countries like the Philippines, and those occurring in the later months of 2020 weren’t included. The Qatari government disputed these numbers.
Recommendations:
Watch ‘FIFA Uncovered’ — a four-episode docu-series on Netflix detailing the allegations of corruption against officials and showing the power tussle within football’s governing body.
‘The World Cup’s Forgotten Team’ — this piece by The New York Times’ Bhadra Sharma and Tariq Panja talks about how many of the hundreds of thousands of migrant workers from Nepal who helped prepare Qatar for this moment face exploitation.
Bloomberg’s Bobby Ghosh writes about how hosting the world cup has already given Qatar a “regional consolation prize” — “goodwill from Gulf countries that until recently were dead set on his downfall”.
The New York Post has compiled a list of controversies surrounding the 2022 edition of the world cup.
8 billion
The world’s human population crossed the eight billion-mark this week. Global population had breached the seven billion-mark in 2011. However, population growth is expected to slow over the coming years and cross the nine billion-mark in 2037 and 10 billion in 2057. At the current growth rate, India’s population will surpass that of China at some point next year. However, India’s population growth appears to be stabilising, the United Nations noted.
Interesting stuff
As mentioned last week, Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands is writing a series of opinion pieces on the intensifying great power competition between China and the Quad members (Australia, India, Japan and the US). I’d recommended the first three parts of the series (the introduction, on Australia and on Japan) last week, and now I’d like to recommend the latest part on India’s stance and role.
Financial Times’ James Politi, Lauren Fedor and Kiran Stacey have taken an in-depth look at how the 2024 Republican battle between former US president Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is shaping.
“Most countries, including many in the West, are predisposed to think that when China’s leaders speak in ideological terms, it is not to be taken seriously (or that if it is, the ideology purely applies to the party’s domestic politics). But that is no longer the case.” Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister and a leading international authority on China, writes in Foreign Affairs about how Chinese President Xi is bringing back Marxism. Read the full piece here.