Tunisia backslides
Plus, China’s Xi warns US President Biden not to 'play with fire' over Taiwan
Hello! I hope you have a peaceful weekend ahead. This week we’re looking at the democratic backsliding in President Kais Saied’s Tunisia — the birthplace and the only success story of the Arab Spring. We’re also looking at the China-United States tensions over US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s intended visit to Taiwan next month and Pakistan’s economic crisis. Let’s get started.
This day that year
2021: The International Space Station (ISS) — a collaboration between the space agencies of Canada, Europe, Japan, Russia and the United States — briefly spun out of control after an engine malfunction. The ISS orbits Earth at an altitude of about 400 kilometres and has some astronauts onboard at all times.
1987: The Indo-Sri Lanka Accord was signed. Under this agreement, Sri Lanka agreed to devolve power to the provinces and withdraw troops to the barracks in the north, and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) — seeking an independent Tamil nation — were to surrender their arms. However, the LTTE wasn’t a party to the agreement and the accord collapsed.
Tunisia backslides
Tunisia, the northernmost country in Africa, showed a strong sign of democratic backsliding this week as the people approved a new draft constitution in a referendum. This new constitution will turn the country’s semi-presidential system into a presidential system, concentrating powers in the hands of President Kais Saied and seriously limiting parliament’s role.
This new constitution, which gives President Saied sweeping powers to run the country at the cost of the parliamentary system, is seen as his own project. Some of the major constitutional changes are that the president will appoint the government without needing a vote of confidence from the elected parliamentary representatives, bills tabled by the president will be prioritised, a censure motion must be voted on by two-thirds of the members of both chambers of parliament together for it to be adopted and that the president will appoint members of the Constitutional Court. This new constitution has been heavily criticised for taking Tunisia back towards a “dictatorial regime”.
About 94.6 percent voters approved the draft constitution. But it’s difficult to understand the real popular sentiment because the voter turnout was merely 30.5 percent. Opposition political parties and their supporters had boycotted the vote claiming that the process was illegal. In some cases, such referendums of major consequence have a minimum turnout threshold. But in absence of this requirement, the new constitution has been considered approved. But while there were protests against the constitutional referendum, it’s difficult to figure out if the new constitution enjoys genuine support or not as some people have also spoken in its favour.
Who is Kais Saied? Saied is a retired constitutional law professor who was elected as the country’s president as an independent candidate in 2019. He was also the president of the Tunisian Association of Constitutional Law for about 25 years until then. Saied campaigned as a populist candidate and was supported by the right-wing Ennahda party. His campaign was geared to appeal to younger Tunisians by promising improvements to the electoral system and fighting corruption. He defeated centrist businessperson Nabil Karoui in the second round of polling by securing over 72 percent votes.
The referendum was held on July 25, exactly a year after President Saied sacked prime minister Hichem Mechichi, suspended parliament and lifted parliamentary immunity. The political opposition there has described the 64-year-old’s actions as a coup d’etat, even as the pretext for doing so were violent demonstrations against the government over the COVID-19 pandemic response. Saied did appoint Najla Bouden as the first female prime minister of the Arab world a few months later. But he had essentially established a one-person rule by then by suspending the previous constitution in September 2021. Many opposition politicians, including former prime minister Hamadi Jebali, have been jailed over various allegations including that of money laundering. This concentration of power was, in fact, supported by some citizens. They perhaps wanted to get out of the sclerotic governance system and for one person to take control and steer the country — hoping for what is described by some as a benevolent dictatorship. Only time will tell how benevolent Saied’s regime is.
Tunisians approving such a new constitution to submit power to one person also ends what is seen as the only successful outcome of the Arab Spring. Towards the end of 2010, street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi self-immolated in the town of Ben Arous to protest against municipal officials confiscating his produce and harassing him. This inspired spontaneous protests against the government. By this time, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali — effectively a dictatorship — had been in power for about 23 years. Long-disgruntled citizens took to the streets and the unrest quickly spread across the country in what came to be known as the Jasmine Revolution. They were protesting against unemployment, inflation, political oppression and corruption. The protestors succeeded and Ben Ali fled. The toppling of Ben Ali’s regime was a success that led to the wider Arab Spring revolutions against autocratic regimes across Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In the following months and years Egypt (ouster of President Hosni Mubarak), neighbouring Libya (the civil war leading to the killing of Muammar Gaddafi), Bahrain (calling for an end to Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa’s monarchy) and Syria (leading to the ongoing civil war) saw similar unrests. Many movements succeeded, some didn’t.
Many saw the Arab Revolution, and especially the Jasmine Revolution, as a people’s struggle for a democracy. After all, Tunisia had managed to move from Ben Ali’s regime to a developing democratic structure rather smoothly. In fact, the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet comprising four civil society organisations — General Labour Union; Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts; Human Rights League and Order of Lawyers — was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015 for “decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy”. But in retrospect, the main driver of the Tunisian revolution seems to have been different. Perhaps, it wasn’t focused on democracy. Instead, the objective was limited to ousting Ben Ali so that the country’s economic problems could be fixed and Tunisians could live better. That may explain why there’s seemingly limited concern about democratic backsliding (this is not to say that protesters didn’t want democracy). Therefore, the long-term outcomes of the wider Arab Spring have been mixed. Some countries like Egypt have returned to autocracies. In others like Syria and Libya, the instability has continued. Though The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democratic Index categorises Tunisia as a hybrid regime, its democracy was still ranked the best among all MENA nations (except Israel) in 2021. Yet, the democratic backsliding there is visible. The country’s score has plummeted from 6.72/10 in 2019 to 5.99/10 in 2021. Its rank on the index has fallen from 53 to 73 during the same period. Now with Tunisia’s new constitution, there’s a concern that the Arab Spring’s only success story has also been undone.
What else?
Playing with fire?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has warned his American counterpart Joe Biden against “playing with fire” over the Taiwan dispute.
During a phone call on July 28, Xi said that his government and the Chinese people’s position on Taiwan’s status was consistent. “Resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people. The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the US will be clear-eyed about this.”
Xi’s warning came amid speculation that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan next month to show support for Taipei. Pelosi is third in the American order of precedence after Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris and is considered by China as part of the US government. Her visit has not been officially confirmed neither by the White House, nor Taiwan. But there are indications that is being planned, despite Biden suggesting that the US military has opposed such a move.
Why is this important? Taiwan, which effectively operates as an independent nation, is considered by China as its own breakaway province. It’s the Chinese Communist Party’s stated goal to reunify the island with mainland China. But Taiwan, with its democratic governance system, is keen on maintaining the status quo. While Taipei has for many decades feared that Beijing may try to take over by force, such concerns have deepened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. The US officially recognises the ‘One China’ policy — effectively agreeing that Taiwan is a part of China. However, it has unofficial relations with Taiwan and maintains ambiguity over whether it would support Taipei — and in what form — if there was an invasion by the People’s Republic. China is uncomfortable with any kind of diplomatic or military support Taiwan receives from any country, especially the US. Therefore, such diplomatic visits to Taiwan are generally a no go.
Currently, the China-US bilateral relations are seemingly at their lowest point in decades. The ongoing trade dispute, Chinese violations of Taiwan’s airspace and military activities in the Indo-Pacific and the larger great power competition between the two nations have all contributed to these tensions.
Pelosi’s visit would only add to the tensions, analysts suggest. Cancelling the visit after all the attention it has grabbed might be difficult for Pelosi especially with just a few months to go for the US midterm elections. She would, after all, be the highest ranked American government official to visit Taiwan since 1997. A lot has changed since 1997 and China’s rise is undeniable. Therefore, Beijing’s response to such a visit by Pelosi is expected to be stronger. Chinese state media has quoted the country’s defence ministry as asserting that it would “not sit idly by” if Pelosi’s visit goes ahead. It has already warned of “consequences”.
There’s one more thing to consider. The next few months are expected to be politically delicate for Xi who is hoping to secure an unprecedented third consecutive leadership term at the Communist Party Congress meeting scheduled for later this year. If Pelosi visits Taiwan, Xi would have to act so that he retains popularity within the CCP and is not perceived to be weak.
Pakistan’s economy
Pakistan’s Finance Minister Miftah Ismail has insisted that his country won’t default on its sovereign debt, amid the ongoing economic crisis. “With austerity and reform measures taken in the Budget and since the Budget, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) agreement and progress with other multilateral institutions, our bonds are a safe and smart investment,” Ismail said in a tweet.
The Pakistani Rupee had lost over 8 percent last week — the biggest such drop since 1998 — and continued to fall this week. The currency is now at an all-time low against the US Dollar. Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have also slumped below the $9 billion-mark.
The country has been plagued by price rise, energy crisis and political instability over the past few months. The new federal government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has found it difficult to cut subsidies in the current political environment. Cutting subsidies is an important step in ending the balance-of-payments crisis. Fears of the possible collapse of Pakistan’s economy have gotten worse after what transpired in another South Asian country — Sri Lanka. Brad Setser, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, suggests that Pakistan has many of the same structural weaknesses that are seen in Sri Lanka, including problems in tax collection and inadequate forex reserves.
“Given its size, location, and its nukes, many Pakistani leaders have often scoffed at the notion of collapse or default, insisting the country is too big to fail. That’s one reason why the country has failed to develop a sounder economic system, relying instead on bailouts.” Wajahat Khan writes in this GZERO piece about the challenges Pakistan faces.
Interesting stuff
“Over two-thirds of Mauritius’s population trace their ancestry to India and favour close ties with it. But most would readily draw the line at compromising their privacy or jeopardising relations with other countries.” Siddharth Varadarajan argues in The Wires that the internet sniffing scandal in Mauritius should be bigger news in India. Read the full article here.
“The most educated generation in China’s history was supposed to blaze a trail towards a more innovative and technologically advanced economy. Instead, about 15 million young people are estimated to be jobless, and many are lowering their ambitions.” This Bloomberg story explores why younger Chinese workers’ ambitions and salary expectations are diminishing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the tech crackdown.
“But India is plainly uneasy about efforts to turn [BRICS] into a geopolitical forum supporting Chinese and Russian interests — and to enlarge it to include other ‘like-minded’ states such as Iran.” Shashi Tharoor, former United Nations Under-Secretary General and India’s former junior foreign minister, writes in Project Syndicate about BRICS’ future. Read the opinion piece here.
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