Trudeau’s gamble and Ardern’s COVID-19 strategy
Canada's Justin Trudeau took an electoral gamble. Will it work?
Hello. Wishing you all a very happy Friday. In this edition, we’ll temporarily move away from the crisis in Afghanistan to examine the positions two prime ministers in different parts of the world find themselves in.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is hoping to get re-elected after calling for a September 20 snap parliamentary election. But that gamble now looks increasingly risky.
On the other side of the world, it’s New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. Her government was hailed for successful management of the COVID-19 crisis when the pandemic started. But the sudden surge in infections has brought her ‘COVID-zero’ elimination strategy under scrutiny.
This day that year
1971: Qatar officially became independent from the United Kingdom. Propelled by massive natural gas exports, it has since grown into a one of the countries with the largest Gross Domestic Product per capita. In recent decades, the State of Qatar has worked to acquire for itself a key position in West Asia’s power dynamics.
1783: Great Britain and the United States signed the Treaty of Paris to officially end the American War of Independence. It led to the British recognition of American independence and the end of the 'First British Empire'.
Trudeau’s gamble
Canadian citizens will head for voting in the federal election on September 20. Voters will pick representatives in all 338 parliamentary seats – called ‘ridings’ – of the House of Commons. In most cases, the party securing majority of the seats forms the government, or the one clinching most seats is asked to try and form a government. Generally, the winning party’s leader becomes the prime minister, just like in India, the United Kingdom and most Commonwealth nations.
In case you are wondering if a similar election had happened not too long ago, you aren’t wrong. The last federal election happened in 2019 when Prime Minister Trudeau retained the top job for a consecutive second term. While these polls are supposed to happen every four years, like in the case of the American presidential elections, Trudeau requested Canada’s Governor General – appointed by Queen Elizabeth II – to dissolve Parliament and call for snap elections.
Why did he do that? It’s a gamble. Heading into the election, his party was running a minority government – making it difficult to take big decisions. In April, the government had allocated billions of dollars for pandemic-related support and stimulus measures (he’s seeking public approval for that plan too).
By June, Trudeau was saying that Parliament had become a place of “toxicity” and “obstructionism” opposed to his government's agenda.
His aim was to get a clear majority this time to push through key measures. Trudeau’s Liberal party was leading in terms of popularity and voting preference until mid-August when he sought a snap election.
However, opinion surveys have shown a slide in people’s voting intentions for the Liberals. The Conservative party, the main opposition group, has been the biggest beneficiary. Opinion polls are suggesting the race is tight (some have given Conservatives the lead).
Why it matters: We’re still in the middle of a pandemic and the election outcome will shape Canada’s immediate future. If no party secures a majority in the Lower House, a coalition government may resort to more populist measures.
The election result is likely to give (or not) the new Canadian government a clear political mandate to tackle slowing economic growth, create jobs, and deal with greater issues such as climate change.
Surveys also show that the economy is one of the top concerns of Canadians this time.
BBC’s Jessica Murphy has written more about Trudeau’s gamble.
Can New Zealand beat the Delta?
New Zealand, envied by the world for having controlled the early COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 and for the most part of 2021, is battling a wave of infections.
The country was reporting single-digit daily cases for over 14 months before things dramatically changed in mid-August 2021. While most cases were being reported from arrival quarantine centres until then, a case of community spread was reported on August 17.
That single case in Auckland forced Prime Minister Ardern to place the country under a strict three-day lockdown with immediate effect. That lockdown was extended multiple times and still remains in place, albeit some easing.
The country reported 32 daily COVID-19 cases on August 19 and 68 on August 25. That number reached 84 on August 28. There was a minor dip in reported cases on September 1 (76), but the figure stood at 84 on September 2.
Till September 3, 2021, the country had reported a total of 3,729 novel coronavirus infections since the pandemic started and just 26 related deaths.
Will the ‘COVID-zero’ strategy work? From the onset of the pandemic, the country’s strategy was clear: to eliminate the virus. But with the highly-infectious Delta variant spreading quickly across the world, critics now question as to how long New Zealand can afford to follow the ‘COVID-zero’ approach.
The criticism has come not just from the opposition, but also from Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison. “Any state and territory that thinks that somehow they can protect themselves from COVID with the Delta strain forever, that's just absurd.”
“New Zealand can't do that. They were following an elimination strategy. They're in lockdown. The way through is to get to those 70 percent and 80 percent marks (for vaccination) and open safely,” Morrison said in late August.
But responding to Morrison’s remarks, Ardern maintained that elimination was the most sensible strategy until the population is fully vaccinated. “Elimination is the best strategy for us while we’re vaccinating people and then we’ll continue to look at all of the evidence going forward.”
Ardern told a news conference that while she was aware that countries had taken differing positions, “keeping those cases down while you’re vaccinating has to be the goal, and that’s certainly ours”.
Yet, there’s pressure within the country to avoid lockdowns and rethink the COVID-zero approach keeping in mind the ailing economy. A survey result released on August 27 by The Wellington Chamber of Commerce suggests that over half of the businesses will seek government support.
The survey found that overall, businesses were supporting Ardern’s call so far, but they are looking at what the long-term plan is, “so the country can avoid lockdowns as the only way to limiting virus transmission.”
“The consistent message we have received … is that the only way out of Delta and get back to the new normal is through vaccination ramp up. It’s key to re-opening New Zealand to the world, and it’s key for all Kiwis to get back to work and life,” said Simon Arcus, Chief Executive of Wellington Chamber of Commerce, in the media release.
Slow vaccination drive: In contrast to how proactive Ardern’s government was when the pandemic took off last year, it was rather slow in starting the vaccination drive. The country placed its first vaccine order on January 29, weeks after most western countries had started their inoculation exercises. But it was not until mid-February when authorities actually started administering the doses.
While jabs developed by Pfizer-BioNTech, Janssen (a Johnson & Johnson subsidiary) and Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines have been approved for all above 12 years of age, only the first vaccine is being administered.
As a result, less than 25 percent of the population had been fully vaccinated by August-end. About 45 percent of the population had received their first shot. While the numbers may be impressive in comparison to low- and middle-income countries, it’s lower than neighbouring Australia and far lower than the likes of the United Kingdom, United States, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and several European countries.
What’s more?
Afghanistan
Taliban’s political office head Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is set to lead the new government in Afghanistan, Reuters reported early on September 3. Late Taliban founder Mullah Omar’s eldest son Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob and senior leader Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai will get senior government positions, the news report added. A formal announcement of government formation is awaited. We had discussed a bit about the Taliban’s Cabinet formation in an earlier edition.
Japan
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has decided not to run in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race this month, state broadcaster NHK reported on September 3.
Why is he quitting? Suga's approval rating has plummeted. The country is under a state of emergency due to surging COVID-19 cases and the vaccination exercise has been slow. Suga has also been criticised by the Japanese public for pressing ahead with hosting the Tokyo Olympics despite the pandemic.
What it means: Suga, who took office less than a year ago after then PM Shinzo Abe abruptly resigned citing health issues, effectively won’t continue as the prime minister after next month’s general election.
The Liberal Democrats who have held power for the most part in post-war Japan, will find a new leader soon. If the party wins the general election, this new leader will take up the premiership. This is significant because either way, the country will get a new prime minister.
That takes Japan back to the time of political instability. Before Abe served as the prime minister for eight consecutive years, the country had seen six prime ministers in as many years (including Abe’s own earlier tenure).
Reuters has listed potential candidates to become Japan's next prime minister.
Interesting read
Steven Borowiec writes in Rest of World about how young South Korean soldiers undergoing mandatory service are using smartphones to force changes in the military’s hierarchical and “brutal” barracks culture. While the move seems to have worked in securing better meals and serving a more humane military, it has shown some unintended outcomes. Read the full story here.
What we’ll track in coming weeks: In about two weeks, Canadian voters will be casting their ballots in the federal election. We’ll analyse the election result and what it means for Canada.
Next, we’ll examine what the future holds for Germany. Angela Merkel has been the country’s Chancellor since 2005. Now, she’s retiring. German politicians are scrambling to fill the political void she’ll leave behind. But it’s the people who will decide who gets the top job in the federal election later this month. What makes the race interesting is that Merkel’s CDU/CSU party has slipped in recent opinion polls and the rival Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) now leads.
Before you go…
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