Minor incursion or invasion?
Minor incursion or invasion?
Plus, why Indonesia is building a new capital city
Hello! I hope you have a peaceful weekend ahead. This week, our focus is on the crisis in Ukraine. The United States and its allies are trying to form consensus on how they should respond if Russia invades Ukraine. But there are varying views of how an invasion is to be defined and what sanctions can be on the table. We are also looking at Tonga’s volcanic tsunami and Indonesia’s new planned capital city. Let’s get started.
This day that year
1793: Found guilty of high treason, Louis XVI, the last French king from the House of Bourbon, was executed by guillotine during the French Revolution.
1503: 150 Swiss Guards first arrived at the Vatican. The Pontifical Swiss Guard continues to provide security to the pope even today, making it one of the oldest military units in continuous operation.
Crisis in Ukraine
United States President Joe Biden said on January 19 that how the West reacts to the crisis in Ukraine will depend on how Russia invades or doesn’t. “What you’re going to see is that Russia will be held accountable if it invades and it depends on what it does,” Biden said during a press conference held to mark his administration’s first anniversary. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do, etc.”
“But if they actually do what they are capable of doing with the force they [have] amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine,” Biden added. Biden warned that the US and its allies are ready to “impose severe costs and significant harm on Russia and the Russian economy”. This response is likely to include broad sanctions.
But some have objected to this statement and this approach. From Ukraine’s perspective, any Russia action, whether it’s “a minor incursion” or a full-fledged “invasion”, would both be equally violative of its sovereignty. That’s exactly what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted: “We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones. I say this as the President of a great power [Ukrainian flag].”
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki did try to alleviate these concerns in a statement saying: “If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe and united response.”
Tensions mount: Over the last couple of months, Russia has deployed around 100,000 soldiers (the real number could be significantly higher) and heavy military assets along its border with Ukraine. Kiev and the West are concerned that Moscow might invade Ukraine, something that Russia has repeatedly denied. This is Putin’s classic brinkmanship. Russia has been increasingly irked by the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) presence at its doorstep — in its sphere of influence (though Ukraine hasn’t become a NATO member yet). Representatives from the US and European nations are holding a dialogue with their Russian counterparts with hopes of cutting the tensions. But there has been little progress on the matter so far. Russia wants a written guarantee from the West that NATO will not expand to include nations in eastern and northern Europe (like Ukraine, and Finland and Sweden, respectively). The US has rejected these demands. These nations in question maintain that as sovereign states, they are allowed to join any alliance they wish to. Even amid these talks, a number of Ukrainian government websites were targeted last week in a major cyberattack. Kiev claims that Moscow was behind the attack. US intelligence officials have also been worried that Russia might conduct a false flag operation to justify an invasion.
We don’t know what an invasion of Ukraine would look like if it were to happen. In a country of about 44 million people comprising around 77.8 percent ethnic Ukrainians and approximately 17.3 percent Russians, Moscow will certainly find it very difficult to hold on to any occupation. But things may be much simpler if it decides to invade and occupy only the eastern areas (where a separatist conflict has been on for seven years) and tracts along the coast (between Russia and the Crimean peninsula). Russia has also started evacuating families of officials working at its diplomatic missions in Ukraine. As The New York Times’ Michael Schwirtz and David Sanger suggest citing US officials, it’s unclear if this is part of its propaganda, a preparation for the invasion or just an attempt to distract. In the past week, Russian forces and equipment also arrived in Belarus — which borders Ukraine on the north — for a joint military exercise. One of the locations where the two allies will conduct the joint exercise is near the Ukrainian border. This, some claim, could later become another front for an invasion. The other location is close to the Belarusian border with Poland (both NATO members).
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has sent 30 elite troops and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine this week in an attempt to shore up its defences. Another NATO member, Germany, has also come under pressure from its allies to send weapons to Ukraine. Kiev is desperately looking for anti-missile and anti-aircraft systems and cyber defence equipment to counter the Russian threat.
No consensus: The sanctions the West would impose on Russia in the event of an invasion need to be agreed upon by all stakeholders to be really effective. Creating consensus on this is difficult and that’s exactly why US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Kiev and Berlin this week — to drum up European support. Many European nations also have an interest in avoiding, or at least diluting, such sanctions for their own benefit. For example, Germany is dependent on the gas it imports from Russia. Will Berlin be willing to risk that?
With no side taking a step back, predicting an endgame for this crisis is difficult. The West isn’t willing to pause NATO’s expansion temporarily and even if Putin agrees to climb down — after raising tensions to this level — he would want to do so with something in hand to not attract criticism back home.
Pin it on the map
Time for some head scratching: This is an archipelago in the High Arctic. It belongs to one country, but still belongs to many. Not much happens here right now. But it’s likely to be important in the future. You don’t need a visa to go there. What place is this?
The correct answer is at the bottom.
What else?
Tonga’s volcanic tsunami
The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haʻapai volcano, located on an uninhabited island in Tonga, erupted on January 14. It is located 65 kilometres north of the archipelago nation’s main island Tongatapu. The volcanic eruption, being seen as one of the largest in the 21st century, triggered a tsunami in the region and along the Pacific rim. The tsunami waves in Tonga were up to 15 metres high. But smaller waves were also reported in American Samoa, Fiji, New Zealand, Vanuatu and as far as Chile, Japan, the Russian Far East, Peru and the US. Tsunamis triggered by volcanic eruptions are rare as compared to those caused by earthquakes.
Here’s a GIF of the volcanic eruption, as observed by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s GOES-West satellite:
At least five people were killed and some were injured, however, many remain missing. The volcanic ash continues to pose a health hazard. There has obviously been massive damage to infrastructure in Tonga, including a crucial undersea communications cable. Regional partners Australia and New Zealand are providing assistance.
This video compilation by The Guardian shows how the tsunami was felt around the Pacific rim:
Abu Dhabi drone attack
Yemen’s Houthi forces claimed responsibility for an apparent drone attack on January 17 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE). The attack on three oil tankers in the Musaffah area and an oil storage infrastructure near the city’s airport killed three people (two Indians and a Pakistani) and injured six others. Authorities in the UAE confirmed that the attack was likely to have been carried out by small flying objects. The Houthis also claimed using ballistic missiles along with the drones. The UAE, along with neighbouring Saudi Arabia, have led a military intervention (by the means of a large coalition) in Yemen for the past seven years against the Houthis — who are backed by Saudi’s rival Iran. All sides have indicated in recent years of seeking to disengage and bringing the conflict to an end. Yet, the fighting has continued. This ongoing stalemate on the ground in Yemen has meant that militant groups such as al-Qaeda’s regional affiliate and a unit of the Islamic State have also taken advantage there.
Indonesia’s new capital
Indonesian lawmakers have given a nod to a bill for building a new capital city. The new city, named Nusantara, will come up in what is currently part of the East Kalimantan province on the Borneo island. The $32 billion project was first announced by President Joko Widodo in 2019. But the project’s progress was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Why are they doing it? Indonesia’s current capital Jakarta is sinking. Literally. The city, home to more than 10 million people, is built on a swamp with 13 rivers running through it. Coupled with rising sea levels, northern Jakarta — which sits on the coast of the Java Sea — had already sunk about 2.5 metres in a 10-year period ending 2018. As a result, Jakarta has been witnessing floods quite regularly. Like many big cities, it also has a big air pollution problem. Earlier administrations had also unsuccessfully tried to shift the capital. The country is of course not abandoning Jakarta, which is expected to remain a financial hub.
There are many who are objecting to the move because the new planned capital’s site is currently a jungle. Construction of a new city will require massive deforestation and would destroy wildlife.
Interesting stuff
A few weeks ago, I walked into an Indian grocery store here in the UK, carrying a cup of Boba tea. The old shopkeeper asked me if it was a Chinese beverage. “It’s Taiwanese,” I smirked. “Same thing,” the shopkeeper responded. His visible disinterest was a cue for me to not explain that it isn’t really the same thing. Now, The New York Times’ Amy Qin and Amy Chang Chien have written about how China’s growing “menace” is hardening Taiwan’s identity. “To many young people in Taiwan, to call yourself Taiwanese is increasingly to take a stand for democratic values — to not, in other words, be a part of Communist-ruled China,” they write.
There are contrasting views of the Russian military build-up along the Ukrainian border and if an invasion is actually imminent. But there’s wide consensus that the time of undertaking something like this (whether it happens or not) hasn’t been better for the Kremlin. The Financial Times’ visual storytelling team and Max Seddon pursue all angles to answer the question: “How serious is Vladimir Putin about launching a major Ukraine offensive?”
“For a second time in India’s history, self-reliance might prove to be a costly mistake.” Bloomberg's Andy Mukherjee argues that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s central government banking on domestic consumers to constitute a market large enough to power the economy, could be a major miscalculation.
‘Pin it on the map’ answer: Svalbard. While it’s not on the mainland, the group of islands has been part of the Norwegian kingdom since the early 1920s. It’s an unincorporated territory. The Svalbard Treaty recognises Norwegian sovereignty over the archipelago, but it’s governed differently. Not all Norwegian laws apply there, and it’s not part of the Schengen Area and the Nordic Passport Union (of which Norway is a part of). Svalbard is also an entirely visa-free zone. Both Norway and Russia are engaged in coal mining as the treaty gives its signatories equal rights to participate in commercial activities. Plus, no one (including Norway) can have military installations on the archipelago. We’re going to hear a lot more about Svalbard in the decades to come. With the ice in the Arctic Ocean melting rapidly because of climate change, many new shipping routes are opening up. This is also making access to previously unreachable oil and gas resources easier than ever before. Having stakes in Svalbard will be strategically important for any nation wanting to dominate the Arctic as it sits on these key shipping routes. This Vox video explains just that.
The image shown earlier is of Svalbard's largest town Longyearbyen (having population of around 2,300).
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