US withdraws from Afghanistan, but new challenges await
After 20 years, the United States has withdrawn from Afghanistan. But new foreign policy challenges await Joe Biden’s administration
Hello! In this edition of the Untwined newsletter, we’ll look at the challenges awaiting United States’ Joe Biden administration in Afghanistan where a 20-year war seems to have ended, and eyebrow-raising developments from North Korea.
This day that year
2016: Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was impeached from office. The Senate found her guilty of manipulating the Budget. Her opponents claimed that Rousseff had unevenly allocated funds for government social programmes and issued spending budget decrees without congressional approval in the run-up to her 2014 re-election.
1997: Diana, Princess of Wales, died in a car accident in Paris, France. The crash also led to the death of Diana’s partner Dodi Fayed and the driver, Henri Paul. Trevor Rees-Jones, Diana's bodyguard, survived.
US withdraws from Afghanistan
United States Air Force’s last flight took off from Kabul airport at 11:59 pm local time on August 30, ending the US’ longest war.
General Kenneth F McKenzie, the head of the US Central Command, said at a briefing that all American service members had left Afghanistan, a country now under the Taliban’s control. The US moved out more than 122,000 Americans, foreign nationals and at-risk Afghan citizens as part of the mission. Several other countries also evacuated their citizens in a coordinated effort.
President Joe Biden will address Americans on August 31 where he is expected to explain his administration’s decision to not extend the evacuation mission past the month-end deadline. This is significant as 100-200 Americans remain stranded there. Washington DC is now hoping to evacuate its remaining citizens and at-risk Afghans through diplomatic efforts.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC), currently being presided by India, has also passed a resolution urging the Taliban to facilitate safe passage for people wanting to leave Afghanistan, allow humanitarians to access the country and uphold human rights.
What next? In the previous edition, we talked about what the Taliban’s new governance structure in Afghanistan may look like. The group is close to forming a Cabinet but the details are sketchy. The group has maintained a reconciliatory tone so far and is being watched by government all over.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has made it clear that any engagement with a Taliban-led government in Kabul “will be driven by one thing only – our vital national interests”. Most countries are likely to take a similar stand.
The Taliban reportedly did not want to announce government formation while the US military was still present in Afghanistan.
But the Taliban will also have to deal with its adversary ISIS-Khorasan, the terrorist organisation responsible for a suicide bombing last week that killed 169 Afghans and 13 US service members. ISIS-K is the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria’s affiliate of in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
North Korea appears to have restarted nuclear reactor
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), or simply North Korea, appears to have restarted operations at its Yongbyon nuclear reactor. The complex is believed to be producing plutonium, which is used for nuclear weapons.
The assessment was made by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) using satellite imagery. The organisation seeks to promote peaceful use of nuclear energy and to curb its use for any military purpose.
The United Nations’ atomic agency was expelled by North Korea in 2009. So, it’s unable to directly verify these developments on the ground.
The five-megawatt reactor has been discharging cooling water since July this year, the agency said in a report dated August 27. This was the first such activity observed at the ‘experimental’ nuclear complex since early December 2018 (a couple of months ahead of the 2019 Hanoi Summit).
The IAEA said that North Korea’s nuclear activities continue to be a cause for “serious concern” and indication of operations restarting there are “deeply troubling”.
“The continuation of the DPRK’s nuclear programme is a clear violation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions and is deeply regrettable.”
Why now? In January, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un pledged to push ahead with the country’s nuclear weapons programme. Kim said North Korean scientists would work on miniaturising warheads and developing tactical weapons as part of its arsenal.
The facility at Yongbyon is considered to be the heart of North Korea's nuclear programme.
Pyongyang reactivating its nuclear plans is likely to cause more headache in Washington DC. The Biden administration has been dealing with the US’ much-criticised withdrawal from Afghanistan and is working to restore the Iran nuclear deal.
North Korea had seemingly paused its nuclear programme in the last couple of years as Kim was engaged in talks with Americans for possible lifting of economic sanctions. Then US president Donald Trump had held two summit meetings with Kim – something that had not happened before. But the talks did not go as far as both sides would have wanted.
At the Hanoi Summit, Kim reportedly offered to dismantle the Yongbyon facilities. In return, he asked for the US to lift UN sanctions imposed since 2016. Trump is said to have rejected the offer and demanded a faster and broader elimination of North Korea’s nuclear assets.
Biden has shown little interest in dealing with Kim since assuming the Oval Office and North Korea has been low on his administration’s foreign policy agenda. North Korea may have restarted work on its nuclear programme to attract Biden’s attention.
Interesting reads
BBC’s Vikas Pandey, Shadab Nazmi and David Brown talk about how American military hardware in Afghanistan (given to the Afghanistan National Army) has now fallen into the hands of the Taliban. This may include Mi-17 and Black Hawk helicopters, Humvees and Mobile Strike Force Vehicles (MSFVs). It may not pose an immediate tactical threat as the Taliban currently doesn’t seem to have personnel and pilots skilled enough to operate them in combat. Maintaining and repairing these (assisted by US contractors until now) would also prove to be difficult for the Taliban. But there are concerns that small arms may start appearing on the black market and may potentially fuel insurgencies elsewhere. The Taliban may also coerce former Afghan air force pilots to fly these aircraft, experts suggest. The story can be read here.
The Moscow Times reported on August 30 that Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny's spokesperson, Kira Yarmysh, had also “fled” Russia. Anton Troianovski of The New York Times has written, citing experts, that the current exodus of journalists and dissidents is the biggest wave of political emigration in Russia's post-Soviet history. The story can be read here.
What we’ll track in coming weeks: With more than 70 percent of the population fully vaccinated against the novel coronavirus and a relatively low infection rate, Denmark is set to remove all COVID-19 restriction on September 10.
The United Arab Emirates, Malta and Portugal are the other countries to have fully vaccinated over 70 percent of their population, according to figures collated by Our World in Data. This is going to help them ease restrictions, open international travel and get back to normalcy.
But several countries continue to face vaccine dose shortage and struggle to get the population inoculated against COVID-19 quickly. So where do the G7, G20, BRICS and ASEAN nations stand? We’ll discuss that.
Next, Russia will head for legislative elections on September 19. All 450 seats in the State Duma – Lower House of the Russian federal parliament – are at stake. The polls don’t directly affect Vladimir Putin’s presidency. But it may indicate the country’s mood and citizen’s outlook about the person effectively in power since 1999.
While United Russia party, which backs Putin, seems to have a comfortable lead in opinion surveys, it’s not as popular as it was in the last election. Campaign-time opinion polls show that less than 30 percent Russians are willing to vote for it.
Earlier this year, the arrest of opposition leader Alexei Navalny had trigger countrywide protests. Thousands seeking the ouster of Putin as well as Navalny’s release were arrested during unprecedented demonstrations that lasted around two months. Still behind bars, Navalny has urged Russians to vote tactically to try to hurt re-election prospects of those in power.
So, who will benefit from a possible shift in the national mood? And what impact will this have on Russian democracy?
Plus, we’ll continue to track what happens next in Afghanistan. With the United States and its allies out and the Taliban having taken control of the country, we are set to see a new government forming there. We’ll closely look at how countries deal with the Taliban.
Before you go…
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