Xi’s coronation and Sunak’s challenges
Plus, Brazil heads for consequential presidential polls run-off
Hello! I hope you’re having a great week. In this edition, we’re looking at Chinese President Xi Jinping’s new team, wondering if we just saw the country’s former leader getting purged and understanding the challenges Rishi Sunak, the United Kingdom’s newest prime minister, faces. We’ll also peep into the tense presidential election happening in Brazil. Let’s get started.
This day that year
1995: More than 280 people were killed and 270 others were injured after a fire broke out in the subway system of Baku, Azerbaijan.
1420: Construction of the Forbidden City in Beijing, the former Chinese imperial palace, was completed and Beijing was officially designated as the capital of the Ming dynasty. The Forbidden City remained the seat of power until the abdication of the last Chinese emperor in 1912. Beijing remains China’s capital.
Xi’s coronation
Chinese President Xi Jinping has secured a precedent-breaking third term as the country’s leader. While Xi remaining in power beyond the second term (as has been the precedent in recent decades) was a foregone conclusion, last week’s 20th National Congress of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rubber-stamped the decision.
Recap: CCP’s 20th National Congress (October 14) and key takeaways from Xi’s speech (October 21)
On October 23, Xi introduced his new seven-member Politburo Standing Committee to the world. Appointments to this committee signal further concentration of power in his hands and complete side-lining of other party factions. The standing committee is packed with individuals who owe their loyalty to Xi. This has also stoked concerns of a new personality cult, though this has increasingly been the trend for a while now. Composition of Xi’s new inner circle also indicates insecurity and a continued attempt to maintain grip on power.
Read more: ‘New title for Xi stokes concern of a Mao-style personality cult’ by Bloomberg
Given that no clear succession plan has been laid out, analysts are speculating that 69-year-old Xi has paved the way for him remaining in power potentially until 2036-2037. Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister and a leading international authority on China, had pointed out this possibility earlier. It’s around that time China hopes to complete military modernisation which is one of the crucial steps towards the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” by mid-century.
Key takeaways:
Besides Xi, the revamped all-men Politburo Standing Committee comprises:
Li Qiang: The 63-year-old ranks second in the Standing Committee and is widely expected to become the Chinese premier in March 2023 when Li Keqiang’s tenure ends. His rapid rise to the highest levels of power is eyebrow-raising. For five years, he has been the party secretary of Shanghai — an important position once held by Xi and former president Jiang Zemin. It looks like he’ll become the premier without having served as the vice premier — as has been the practice. He also hasn’t had the regional administration experience of leading impoverished provinces, and hasn’t even been on the party’s central committee. His likely appointment as the premier would happen despite his image having taken a beating because of the controversial two-month COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai earlier this year. The lockdown in one of China’s main financial hubs had led to a rare public outcry against the CCP. Him being made the second-most powerful person in China despite the prevailing public sentiment and despite his handling of the situation can be seen as Xi rewarding his loyalty, some analysts suggest.
Read more: ‘Who is Li Qiang, the man poised to become China’s next premier?’ by The Guardian
Zhao Leji: The 65-year-old led the party’s powerful Central Committee for Discipline Inspection. It’s one of the most feared government units which conducted Xi’s anti-corruption campaign. He is now likely to lead the National People’s Congress (parliament).
Wang Huning: The 67-year-old is the party’s political theorist and is believed to have played an important role in helping Xi shape the party’s ideologies. And, like Zhao, Wang was also a member of the previous standing committee. He’s considered to be an important advisor to Xi. The rankings of both Wang and Zhao have been elevated. Besides Xi, they are the only standing committee members to be retained.
Cai Qi: The 66-year-old will now be tasked with carrying out daily operations of the Politburo. He served as the party secretary of Beijing, and was previously the mayor of the capital and Hangzhou. He was able to implement Xi’s ‘Zero-COVID’ policy in Beijing while avoiding the sort of disruption seen in Shanghai. Cai is seen as the member of the so-called “New Zhijiang Army” — comprising officials who worked under Xi at some point during the latter’s term as the party chief in Zhejiang.
Ding Xuexiang: The 60-year-old was Xi’s chief of staff over the past five years, as well as earlier in Shanghai. He is now China’s First Vice Premier, carrying the possibility of a promotion in the future.
Li Xi: The 66-year-old will be the new chief of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. He is believed to be connected to the Xi family.
The broader 24-member Politburo will have no woman member for the first time in 25 years. Sun Chunlan — one of the vice premiers, the lone female member in outgoing Politburo and also the highest-ranking female Chinese government official — will now retire. Even in the 205-member central committee, only 11 members are women (outgoing central committee had 10/204).
Read more: Xi’s total control over foreign policy is a big problem
Did we just see a purge?
On October 22, China’s former leader and Xi’s immediate predecessor, Hu Jintao, was ushered out of the closing session of the party congress. Hu, 79, looked frail, seemed confused and was initially reluctant to leave his seat next to Xi. Eventually, he was helped to stand up and then started walking away after exchanging a few words with Xi and patting the shoulder of Premier Li Keqiang. Moments before he was led out, Hu was seen trying to pick up papers placed in front of Xi. Xi, however, held the papers down.
Internet and social media censors inside China blocked the news and the CCP didn’t immediately explain why Hu was escorted out, leading to speculation that it was a purge. The speculation wasn’t unfounded. The party congress is a perfectly choreographed event. Everything is carefully planned to the last detail. So, a former president being led out in front of foreign news media raised questions especially in absence of quick plausible answers from the Chinese authorities. Some speculated if Hu wanted to speak at the ceremony or was planning to raise a protest against Xi.
Read more – ‘Analysis: Was Hu Jintao about to express discontent?’ by Nikkei Asia
State-run news agency Xinhua reported later in the day that Hu's staff accompanied him out for rest as the former president “was not feeling well”. Earlier footage of Hu sitting next to Xi was also shown in the 7 pm news broadcast.
Yet, Hu’s being led out — whether intentionally or not — seemed to have a symbolic value. It symbolised the end of the informal ‘Communist Youth League’ faction of the CCP that Hu led – and which rivalled Xi’s faction. Li Keqiang, the outgoing premier who didn’t get an extension, reportedly belongs to this Youth League faction too. Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua, also believed to be a part of that faction, were denied promotions and were excluded from the new Politburo Standing Committee. It symbolised Xi completing the takeover of the CCP, it was seen as his show of strength and a message that no one (other than Xi) was too big to be left uncontrolled.
Was it a purge? Was it Xi’s display of power? Or, what is really a case of a frail man being led out? Will we ever know?
Sunak’s challenges
Rishi Sunak was appointed the United Kingdom’s new prime minister on October 25 — becoming the first non-white person to hold the country’s highest executive office. Sunak, 42, is the youngest UK PM in over 200 years and now also leads the governing Conservative Party.
Sunak, the former chancellor of the exchequer (basically, the finance minister), secured enough support from party lawmakers to formally run in the fresh party leadership contest triggered by PM Liz Truss’ exit last week, just 45 days into her job. But the round involving party members’ voting was avoided as Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons, and former PM Boris Johnson withdrew from the race hours before the nomination deadline. This allowed Sunak to win unopposed.
Sunak takes over at a very difficult moment for the G7 economy. He admitted that the UK is facing a “profound economic crisis” and promised to “fix our economy, unite our party and deliver for our country”. His task is cut-out. His government will have to tackle major cost-of-living and energy crises, face possibility of a “deep recession”, sort out the Northern Ireland Protocol issue, and try to ward off the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) push for a fresh Scottish independence referendum — all while dealing with the impact of Brexit, continuing post-pandemic economic recovery and amid the biggest security concern the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has created in Europe since the end of the Cold War.
Where’s the mandate?
Critics are, however, wondering if he’ll be able to deliver on his promises. He may have been preferred by his fellow party lawmakers, but Sunak isn’t necessarily popular outside Westminster. Like Truss, Sunak has also been chosen by a very small number of people, not by the masses, his critics argue. About 41 percent of respondents to a poll YouGov conducted on October 24 expressed disappointment with Sunak’s appointment. Another 21 percent were undecided. Though Sunak’s appointment is legal, his critics are questioning if he enjoys the mandate to take sweeping decisions. The same dilemma plagued Truss’ short stint.
The Conservative Party — one of the two main political parties in the UK — which was once led by the likes of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher is now fractured. The Tories have internal differences on major issues like the economic policy, Brexit and immigration. This means their clear majority in the House of Commons isn’t harnessed well. The weight of this faction-ridden party now rests on Sunak’s shoulders and he can only work well if the party fights cohesively. Sunak has said he’ll return to implementing policies pushed in the party’s 2019 manifesto — focussing on the National Health Service (NHS), controlling crime, border controls and “[embracing] the opportunities of Brexit”. The party had secured a major victory with that manifesto. This could ensure legislations pushed by Sunak’s Cabinet are supported in parliament by party lawmakers across factions.
Having held power uninterrupted since 2010, the Tories — as Conservative Party members are called — are also facing widespread sentiment of anti-incumbency among the electorate. Their popularity stands very low and people’s voting intention remains stacked against them. A day after Truss announced her resignation, 44 percent of respondents to a YouGov opinion survey believed the opposition Labour Party would win the next election. Just 9 percent believed the Tories could retain power.
Fancying its chances, the Labour led by Sir Keir Starmer is pushing for a fresh general election to happen immediately. The public seems to agree. In a YouGov opinion poll conducted on October 24, majority of the respondents said Sunak should call an early general election. That’s almost never a good sign for any governing party.
Sunak will have to unite the Tories if the party wants to stand any chance in the next election. He knows that. That’s why he reportedly warned his party colleagues: “unite, or die”.
The image problem
Sunak and his family’s riches have also raised eyebrows and have been subject of controversies. Sunak and his wife Akshata Murty (daughter of NR Narayana Murthy, co-founder of Indian information technology giant Infosys, and Sudha Murty) have a combined fortune of about £730 million making them the 222nd wealthiest people in the UK, according to Sunday Times Rich List 2022. That’s over double the estimated £300m-£350m wealth of King Charles III and Camilla, the Queen Consort.
In April 2022, it was reported that Sunak’s wife enjoyed a non-domiciled (“non-dom”) status in the UK. This meant she didn’t pay tax — estimated around £20 million — on income earned abroad while living in the UK. She later said that she will pay taxes in the UK on her global income. Starmer had then accused Sunak of hypocrisy, saying that as the then finance minister, he was “putting up taxes for ordinary Britons while his family has been reducing its own tax liabilities”. The same month, Sunak was issued with a fixed penalty notice for breaching COVID-19 lockdown restrictions by attending a birthday party at 10, Downing Street — the official residence of the prime minister — earlier. Then PM Johnson was also fined and the scandal eventually contributed to his downfall.
With that sort of wealth, Sunak has been repeatedly criticised for, what his critics call, being out of touch with ordinary people’s struggles.
One of his first decisions as the PM — to reinstate Suella Braverman as the Home Secretary barely a week after she was forced to resign for breaching the ministerial code — was heavily criticised. But, Sunak stood by his decision saying Braverman had “made an error of judgement” and had “accepted her mistake”.
What else?
Brazil’s election
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and his rival Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will fight it out in the run-off round of presidential elections on October 30. Lula was leading with a healthy margin in opinion surveys ahead of the first round earlier this month. But Bolsonaro sprung a surprise by picking up enough votes to deny Lula a 50-percent vote-share and a straight-forward victory. Lula had won 48.4 percent of the valid votes. Bolsonaro had secured 43.2 percent of the votes. Bolsonaro’s party also defeated the Lula-led alliance in the elections for the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies — the two Houses of parliament. Therefore, even if Lula wins, he’ll face hurdles in parliament and pushback from the base Bolsonaro has created for himself.
There have been long-standing concerns that Bolsonaro might do a Trump or attempt a self-coup if he feels that he may lose. Or, he may obstruct the smooth transfer of power if he loses. According to The Economist’s poll-of-polls, Lula’s lead has now tanked to just 4 percent — making the possibility of Bolsonaro retaining power plausible. If Bolsonaro loses by a whisker, he may feel further encouraged to try and clutch onto power, his opponents fear. The next few days will be decisive for Brazilian democracy.
Read more: ‘How Bolsonaro built a right-wing movement bigger than his presidency,’ by the Financial Times
Interesting stuff
“Xi’s path to power was far from inevitable. And it’s defined as much by his ambition as it is by the party’s failure to prevent what they did not want — a repeat of Mao’s disastrous one-man rule.” Xi’s party is just getting started, writes the BBC’s Rupert Wingfield-Hayes. Read the story here.
The Financial Times released a 30-minute documentary last week on the adverse economic impact Brexit has had on the UK and the “conspiracy of silence” around it. It’s been watched 2.5 million times on YouTube in about a week. I strongly recommend watching it, irrespective of which side of the debate you stand on.
“[Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s] government is therefore uninterested in the material consequences of its policies and actions. It doesn’t matter whether the critics think the performance is any good; all that matters is that the audience keeps applauding.” Denise Dresser, writer and university professor of political science, writes in Foreign Affairs about how López Obrador is undermining democracy with his personalistic style of governance, rhetoric and policy decisions. Read the full piece here.
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