Hello! Hope you have a great weekend ahead. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has now gone on for six months. So, this week, we’re looking at the current state of affairs there and the larger picture. But we’re also talking about the Thai prime minister getting suspended, Singapore decriminalising gay sex, the US-Iran nuclear deal, Brazilian presidential election and a former Pakistani PM getting protection from arrest. Let’s get started.
This day that year
1936: The Kingdom of Egypt and the United Kingdom signed the Anglo-Egyptian Treaty which required withdrawal of all British troops from Egypt, except those needed to protect the Suez Canal and surrounding areas.
1303: Eight-month siege of Chittorgarh ended with the sultan of Delhi, Alauddin Khalji, capturing the Chittor Fort from Guhila king Ratnasimha.
Russian invasion of Ukraine: 6 months on
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on August 25 paving the way for 137,000 more service personnel to be added to his country’s military in the coming months. This signals that Moscow is preparing for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine which has now gone on for just over six months. Russia is requiring more soldiers to hold control of Ukrainian towns it has captured and to repel Ukrainian counterattacks. The Russian armed forces are reportedly recruiting prisoners, promising them freedom and money.
A high number of Russian personnel have been lost or injured in the war. The US claims that as many as 80,000 Russian casualties can be linked to the invasion of Ukraine. Russia itself has not published its casualties since late-March, when it confirmed that 1,351 of its personnel had been killed and 3,825 were injured.
Here’re some key statistics about the conflict, from the NPR
It was widely believed that the Ukrainian government and military would capitulate in the early days and weeks of the war and Russia would be able to take control of Kyiv quickly. None of that happened. Ukrainian resistance — supported by civilians — has managed to take back most of the territory in the north-northeast that invading Russian forces had conquered. Fighting is still ongoing in the south and in the east, including for the control of towns like Kherson. It has turned into a war of attrition. Meanwhile, there’s growing nervousness over the safety of the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia.
The initial objective of the Russian “special operation”, as Moscow calls it, was to “denazify” Ukraine, take control of the entire country and install a puppet regime in Kyiv. All this was meant to rebuild the Russian sphere of influence in eastern Europe. But Putin’s regime now claims that its objective is to liberate Donbas in eastern Ukraine and create conditions that would help guarantee the security of Russia.
For Russia, the wider picture doesn’t look good either. Contrary to what Putin sought, the Ukrainian identity has rejuvenated, Kyiv has moved even closer to the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) continues to expand with the imminent inclusion of Finland and Sweden who had opted to remain strategically neutral so far.
This week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — acclaimed internationally for leading the Ukrainian resistance — stepped up the battle when he vowed to take back Crimea, which has been under Russian control since 2014.
“Crimea is an integral part of our people,” Zelenskyy said. “Russian aggression began in Crimea, and its finale will be in Crimea as well.”
But, of course, thousands have already died and many more have been injured. Unfortunately, the number keeps increasing every day. Ukraine has seen massive damage to property. Irrespective of when the fighting stops, it will require a robust international effort to rebuild and revive Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the invasion has led to other broader irreversible changes. The war has triggered an expansive energy crisis especially in Europe and affected food supply, the European security architecture has changed forever and the Russia-China ‘friendship without limits’ has deepened. The last will have ramifications in an increasingly multipolar world.
Six months of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in pictures, from The Guardian [warning: graphic imagery]
And, here's a handy timeline of events from Al Jazeera
What else?
Thai coup leader-turned-PM suspended
Thailand’s Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-Cha from official duty until it rules on a petition challenging his term limit. Thailand’s opposition parties have moved the country’s highest court arguing that Prayuth breached the eight-year prime ministerial term limit this week. The 68-year-old had become the Thai prime minister in 2014 following a coup d’état he led in the capacity of the Thai Army chief amid a political crisis. He then retained office following an election in 2019 that is widely believed to have been unfree and unfair. The opposition suggests that Prayuth’s term began in 2014 at the time of the coup, and therefore, he has reached his term limit. However, Prayuth’s claims that his first term started in 2019 when the new Constitution came into force. According to Prayuth’s interpretation, he would be eligible to stay in office until 2027 subject to winning the next general election. It’s unclear when the top court will deliver its ruling in the case but Prayuth will remain suspended from official duty until then. Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan will take over in the interim. The court wasn’t expected to suspend Prayuth and many believe that it would still give a final ruling to keep him in office.
Singapore decriminalises gay sex
Singapore will repeal a colonial-era law that bans gay sex, thereby decriminalising homosexuality there. The decision was announced by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong earlier this week. The city-state, known for its conservative values, has seen an intense debate over the matter in recent years.
To strike a balance, Singapore’s government was earlier hoping to retain the law – Section 377A, which bans sex between men – but was promising to not enforce it. However, the prime minister announced that the law would be abolished because he believed it was the “right thing to do” and that “most Singaporeans will accept” the LGBT+ community. Yet, abolishing Section 377A still doesn’t legalise gay marriage. PM Lee justified this saying that many Singaporeans who support repealing Section 377A still want to maintain “current family and social norms”.
US-Iran nuclear deal
Iran is reviewing the US’ response to a final offer drafted by the EU to save the 2015 nuclear deal, the country’s foreign ministry said on August 24. Now, Tehran is expected to respond to the draft.
For about one and a half year, officials from the US, Iran and a few other nations were in indirect talks to resurrect the 2015 nuclear deal former US president Donald Trump had scrapped in 2018. The talks broke down in March this year over differences. Tehran was seeking a commitment from Washington DC that no future American president would junk the deal as Trump had. But the Joe Biden administration is in no position to give such a guarantee because the deal is not a legally-binding treaty. A treaty would have to be ratified by two-thirds of the US Senate (and that’s another complex issue). The Trump administration believed that the 2015 deal gave too many concessions to Tehran. He had then gone on to impose fresh sanctions on Iran over its nuclear programme. The sanctions prompted Iran to violate the terms of the agreement.
While negotiations are still on over matters such as if international inspectors should close investigations into Iran’s nuclear programme, there have been indications that the deal may be inked soon.
Bolsonaro trails
With just over a month to go before the presidential election, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is trailing rival Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. An opinion poll by DataFolha suggests Lula is polling at 47 percent ahead of Bolsonaro’s 32 percent. But the gap has actually shrunk from over 20 percentage points in May to 15 percentage points now. If no candidate secures 50 percent of the votes, a second round will take place at the end of October. Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1985, every candidate who led opinion polls two months ahead of the election went on to win, The Economist notes.
Even though the number of undecided voters is at a historical low this time, we are likely to see a vibrant and possibly ugly campaign. It’s just getting started.
Lula, a former president, is winning support of voters disappointed by Bolsonaro’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation and unemployment.
Bolsonaro is already questioning the legitimacy of the election and there are concerns that he might do a Trump.
We had discussed the Brazilian presidential election and Bolsonaro’s plan in this June edition.
Imran Khan gets protection from arrest
Former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan has been granted protection against arrest in two cases. Khan, also the leader of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, was booked this week in a terrorism case for controversial remarks about a female judge at the rally on August 20. A separate complaint was also registered against him for violating a ban on public gatherings in Islamabad on the day of the rally. In the terrorism case, Khan is accused of making threats against judiciary and the police.
Months after losing power in a no-confidence motion in the country’s parliament, Khan remains popular. PTI is still the single-largest party in the National Assembly and seemingly has considerable support on the ground. He has been a vocal critic of the incumbent PM Shehbaz Sharif-led government, calling it an “imported government”, and his game plan seems to be keeping up the pressure on the government until the nation heads for general elections some time over the next year.
Interesting stuff
“Britain and France reluctantly gave up their empires after World War II. But Putin is insistent on bringing tsarist Russia back.” Angela Stent and Fiona Hill write in Foreign Affairs about the world the Russian president wants and how distortions about the past are feeding delusions about the future. Read the full piece here.
“The effects of climate change will leave desperate farmers from Asia’s deltas no choice but to abandon their fields and join their countrymen in the pursuit of urban life, exacerbating the already severe internal migration situation in these three cramped cities.” Nicholas Muller writes in The Diplomat about Southeast Asia’s sinking megacities like Bangkok, Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City. Read the story here.
“India’s Taiwan moment has arrived, and its leaders would be wise to seize it.” Harsh V Pant and Shashank Mattoo are calling for New Delhi to deepen its political ties with Taipei, saying realities in the Indo-Pacific region have changed. Read the full piece here (originally appeared in Foreign Policy).
The New York Times’ Max Fisher looks at 12 countries where democracy is under threat. “This trend, continuing for over a decade, appears to be accelerating, data shows, affecting established and fragile democracies alike across the globe.” Read the full story here.
Almost all of Australia’s 200 million wild rabbits can be traced to one fateful shipment of 24 rabbits received in 1859. The continent is struggling with its wild rabbit population. Read more here.
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